US SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA: A NEW TURN…: VCIOM: Russia Public Opinion Research Center

On Friday, the US Congress approved new sanctions against Russia. American investment into Russian oil and gas companies will be limited. Introduction of personal sanctions against Russians suspected of cyber attacks, corruption or human rights violations will be simplified. Have you personally heard, or do you hear for the first time about these sanctions? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)

Total respondents

Aged 18-24

Aged 25-34

Aged 35-44

Aged 45-59

Aged 60 and more

I am well aware of that

I heard something but I do not know any details

This is the first time I hear about that

Don't know

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US SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA: A NEW TURN…

VCIOM-Sputnik data suggest that new American sanctions against Russia were perceived calmly by most of Russians.

04.08.2017

IN BRIEF

48% of Russians expect no impact from new sanctions on Russia; 28% expect aggravation of the situation in Russia and 9% - improvements; 72% of Russians believe that Russia should not seek to have the sanctions lifted as those countries that imposed them will have to lift them soon

VCIOM-Sputnik data suggest that new American sanctions against Russia were perceived calmly by most of Russians.

MOSCOW, August 4, 2017. The Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the results of a survey describing the attitudes of Russians towards a new round of anti-Russian sanctions.

Sixty-eight percent of Russians heard about a new round of anti-Russian sanctions approved by the US Congress, however only 16% know more details. Twenty-eight say they are afraid of possible negative effects (39% of them are well aware); 9% expect positive effects; about half of Russians (48%) think no changes will occur.

Russians are divided in their opinions on how Russia should respond to new U.S. sanctions: some propose to introduce new retaliatory sanctions (19%), to do something (9%), or to respond in a severe manner (4%), while others think Russia should not respond (29%). A further 34% fail to express their opinions.

In July the balance of assessments regarding the impact of sanctions on Russia was almost the same as in March: 35% cited positive effects and 26% considered that sanctions had aggravated the situation in Russia. More than a quarter of Russians (29%) think that sanction policy has no substantial effect on the society.

Eighteen percent of respondents experience difficulties due to sanctions (in March – 17%). They mainly complain about price increase and aggravation of financial well-being (66%). Seventy-nine percent still notice no consequences.

As before, the majority of Russians (72%) say the Russian government should not take any active measures, when asked whether Russia should seek to have the sanctions lifted (among them 77% are very well aware of new sanctions), as sanctions will soon be lifted. The opposite opinion is shared by 20% of those who think certain measures should be taken to make Western countries to lift sanctions (due to severe economic consequences).

The assessment of the Russia-US relations which saw improvement in the beginning of July (after the meeting of heads of states) decreased in the end of the month and reached its April levels: the corresponding index* dropped from -52 to -69. More than a third of respondents (39% vs. 32% in the beginning of July) describe them as “tense”, 23% - as “cool” and 21% (vs. 10%) as “hostile”.

The percentage of Russians who favor the American president has sharply dropped (from 27% to 18%), whereas the negative attitudes have risen from 22% to 28%. However, neutral assessments prevail (43%).

*Index of Russian-American relations reflects Russian assessments. The index is based on the question: “How would you assess the current relationship between Russia and the United States of America?” It is calculated as the difference of the sum of positive answers (“normal”, “good, good-neighborly”, “and friendly”) and negative answers (“cool”, “tense”, “hostile”), measured in points and can vary between -100 and 100. The higher the value of index is, the better Russians assess the bilateral relations.

The VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide survey was conducted on July 30-31, 2017. The survey involved 1,200 Russians aged 18 and over, and was carried out using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted for the probability of selection and reflect social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 3.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Results for the 2005-2016 studies are based on household surveys.

In your opinion, will these sanctions have any impact on Russia? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)
	Total respondents	Moscow and St.Petersburg	Million cities	More than 500 ths	100–500 ths	Less than 100 ths	Rural area
They might have negative impact	28	41	30	29	24	31	22
They might have positive impact	9	7	5	14	9	9	10
Nothing will change	48	47	50	44	49	47	47
Don't know	15	5	15	13	18	13	21

In your opinion, should Russia respond to new sanctions imposed by the U.S.? If yes, how should Russia respond? (open-ended question, not more than 3 answers, %)
	Total respondents
Russia should not respond	29
Impose similar sanctions	19
Russia should respond but I do not know how	9
Respond in a severe manner	4
Send American diplomats home; allow the same number as the number of Russian diplomats in the U.S.	3
Impose sanctions in space industry	1
Conduct negotiations, use diplomatic means	1
Not to allow American goods to enter Russian market	1
Withdraw Russian funds from the U.S.	1
Renounce US dollar	1
Other	3
Don't know	34

*the question was as follows: “Due to contradictory situation in Crimea, some Western countries may impose political and economic sanctions against Russia. If these sanctions are accepted, what impact will they have on Russia?

**the question was as follows: “Amid Ukrainian conflict, certain countries have imposed sanctions against Russia. In your opinion, what impact have these sanctions had on Russia?”.

***the question was as follows: “Reunification of Russia and Crimea and support for the Donbass insurgents have led to economic sanctions imposed by Western countries. In your opinion, what impact have these sanctions had on Russia?”

Have you personally or your relatives experienced any consequences of the precious sanctions imposed on Russia? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)
	VIII.2014	II.2015	VI.2016	III.2017	VII.2017
Yes	5	45	24	17	18
No	92	50	71	79	79
Don’t know	3	5	5	4	3

If yes, what kind of consequences? (open-ended question, any number of answers, % of those who have experienced consequences of sanctions personally)
	VIII.2014	II.2015	VI.2016	III.2017	VII.2017
Price increase, decline in purchasing power, deterioration in financial situation/fall in living standards	77	85	74	66	66
Unemployment, loss of job including job in a foreign company	6	0	0	7	10
Dollar/euro exchange rate increase	0	5	2	5	10
Redundancy, decrease/delays in paying salaries	0	8	14	9	9
Many goods disappeared/lack of foreign goods	0	4	8	13	8
Problems getting visas/ban on travelling abroad, to Ukraine	0	0	6	9	6
More Russian-produced goods appeared on the shelves; development of agricultural and industrial production	0	0	0	2	4
Business problems/loss of business	0	1	2	3	2
Increase in refugee rate	0	0	0	0	2
More demand for my work	0	0	0	0	1
Cuts for healthcare, decline in the quality of healthcare	0	0	0	0	1
Problems in national economy	3	1	4	0	0
Increase in loan and mortgage interest rates	0	2	0	0	0
Account freeze, card lock	3	1	0	0	0
Cancellation of Dobrolet Company flights	6	0	0	0	0
Low pension ("pension was not indexed")	0	0	2	0	0
Problems with imported medicines	0	0	1	0	0
Cut/cancellation of benefits/bonuses/compensations	0	0	1	0	0
Deterioration in health / Psychological consequences	0	0	1	0	0
State programs of import substitution (“sharp increase in competitiveness of the national producers”)	0	0	4	0	0
Other	17	3	2	10	7

In your opinion, should Russia seek ways to get the sanctions imposed by Western countries lifted? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)
	II.2015	VI.2016	III.2017	VII.2017
Yes, Russia should seek to get the sanctions lifted; their negative effects for the Russian economy are immense	33	27	18	20
No, Russia should not seek to get the sanctions lifted; they are equally harmful for Russia and the Western countries, so the Western countries will soon lift them	57	61	76	72
Don’t know	10	12	6	8

How would you assess the current relationship between Russia and the United States of America? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)
	05	II.8	VI. 08	IX. 08	09	10	11	12	II. 13	VIII. 13	XI. 14	X. 16	III. 17	IV. 17	9-10. VII.17	30-31. VII.17
Tense	8	12	12	37	13	5	10	14	17	19	49	46	33	42	32	39
Cool	22	26	27	29	26	17	24	26	35	31	21	18	30	28	32	23
Hostile	4	3	2	11	2	1	2	2	4	3	20	24	8	12	10	21
Normal, calm	38	36	41	14	37	46	42	38	31	32	1	4	17	9	15	10
Friendly	9	4	5	2	5	7	6	5	3	4	5	1	4	3	4	2
Good, good-neighborly	12	7	8	2	9	16	12	10	5	6	1	1	5	2	3	2
Don’t know	7	12	5	5	8	8	4	5	5	5	3	6	3	4	4	3
Index*	25	6	13	-59	10	46	24	11	-17	-11	-83	-82	-45	-68	-52	-69

What are your attitudes toward American president Donald Trump? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)
	III.2017	IV.2017	9-10.VII.17	30-31.VII.17
Likely positive	38	13	27	18
Indifferent	45	38	40	43
Likely negative	7	39	22	28
Don’t know	10	10	11	11

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