MOSCOW, 19 August 2024. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the results of a survey about the interest of Russians in political situation in the USA as the US presidential elections approach.

Interest with moderation

According to a recent survey, slightly more than half of Russians are following the US elections to a varying degree (55% vs 63% a month ago). Lower attention to the presidential race is due to the decreased share of those who keep track of the elections occasionally — 44% (-7 p.p. since July 2024). The number of the core attentive observers has not changed over the recent month (11%, July 2024 — 12%).

Forty-four percent of Russians are not interested in the election campaign in the US; this share is higher than the June 2024 percentage (36%) and considerably lower than the 2004, 2008 and 2016 percentages; during those years 58-61% of Russians were not interested in the presidential race.

Over the recent month gender differences related to the interest in the election campaign has levelled off: both men and women show equal interest in the presidential race (57% and 53% respectively). However, gender and area characteristics have stayed at the same level: those who are interested in overseas developments are still respondents aged 60+ (66% vs. 42-58% in other age groups) and residents of both capitals (64%). The higher the education levels, the more respondents are absorbed in this topic: every second respondent in the group of those who have secondary education follows the presidential race (51-50%) vs 63% of those with high level of education. 

Republicans against Democrats

If Russians had an opportunity to take part in the political life in the United States, more than one-third of respondents would vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming elections (37%), and only 8% would support Kamala Harris. Four in ten respondents would not take part in the elections (40%); a further 15% remained undecided. Russians favor the current US vice-president more than the previous head of state Joe Biden. Indeed, a July survey conducted by VCIOM showed the following distribution of answers: Trump — 42%, Joe Biden — 4% (which is twice as low compared to the new candidate from the Democratic party).

Political preferences are shaped by interest in the current political situation in the US: every second respondent among those who keep track of the elections reports to be ready to vote for Trump (50%), which is 2.5-fold greater than the number of those who are interested in elections at all (20%). The latter, on the contrary, are likely political absentees (“I would not take part in elections”- 51%).

Those who support Trump are often young respondents aged 18-24 (56%) and persons with good income (42%). Remarkably, there is likely no connection between support for Trump and media preferences: both active TV viewers (39%) and active Internet users (35%) would vote for him. As to Kamala Harris, the number of persons supporting her is higher among the latter— 11% (vs. 5% of TV viewers).

It has nothing to do with Russia’s national interests

No matter what the outcome of the presidential elections is, every second respondent is confident that it does not matter for Russia (50%). However, Trump is still seen as a more desired candidate. About a quarter of Russians say that Trump’s return to the White House is more likely to meet Russia’s interests (27%); only 4% point out Harris).

The older the respondents are, the more often they say that the outcome of the presidential race in the US does not matter for our country:  27% of young persons aged 18-24; 44-46% among those aged 25-44; 59% of those aged 60+. On the contrary, young respondents consider Trump’s victory to be a more successful outcome for Russia (47% of those aged 18-24).

All-Russian VCIOM-Sputnik telephone surveys were conducted August 9, 2024. A total of 1,600 respondents aged 18 and older took part in each survey. Survey method: telephone interviews, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of 9 August, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7996; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0102; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0327. Calculations are based on corporate standard https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

 ** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.

** In 2021, the question was asked after the elections were held and was as follows: “At the end of the last year the USA held presidential elections. Were you following the US presidential elections, or not?” Respondents were offered answer options in the past tense: “Yes, I followed the entire campaign”, “I didn’t follow it closely but was interested from time to time”, “No, I didn’t follow it” and “Don’t know”. 

* Before 2017, surveys were conducted through household face-to-face interviews (“Express” project); stratified multi-stage quota-based sample; quotas based on socio-demographic parameters, representative of the Russian population aged 18+ by settlement type, age, gender, education and federal district. Sample size is 1,600 respondents.