MOSCOW, 13 November 2024. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a monitoring survey devoted to what Russians think about the past presidential elections in the USA.

A long-awaited revenge

Seven-in-ten Russians followed the American election campaign with varying degrees (69%); the same percentage of Russians followed the pre-electoral race between B.Obama  and J.McCain in 2008, D.Trump and H.Clinton in 2016 (69%, each); however the degree of engagement changed. Eight years ago, Russians followed the presidential race more closely than today: the share of those who followed closely the presidential race was a record-setting 24% (vs 18% today); with the number of those who occasionally followed the race, at 45% (vs 51% today). The political race between Biden and Trump in 2020 aroused the least interest among Russians: 64% of respondents kept an eye on it, including only 12% who did it very closely, which is twice as low compared to 2016.

Older generations (Stagnation and Thaw generations) followed the US election more actively than others: in these groups 24% and 34% of respondents, respectively, followed the entire presidential campaign (vs. 10-16% in other age groups); and the overall shares of those who were interested  reached a record high of  79% and 82%, respectively. Those who are more informed about the presidential campaign are also residents of cities (68-75% followed the campaign vs. 63% in rural area), respondents with higher and incomplete higher education (74%), as well as those who watch TV with varying degrees: active TV viewers and those who adhere to a mixed consumption model (73% and 79% respectively).

About a third of Russians did not pay attention to the US election (31%); this year, the least interested respondents were active Internet users (43% of not follow the election).

Honest victory

In 2024 Russians found it harder to assess the US presidential campaign than in 2016 and 2020: 40% (vs. 30% and 34% respectively, in previous surveys). Informative answers are equally divided: 32% believe that the elections were honest and open; another 28% oppose this opinion. However, the current presidential election seems to be more trustworthy than the previous ones. Indeed, most of Russians did not consider the 2020 political race to be free and democratic (55%); only 12% agreed with that, which is three-fold lower than today.

The older the respondents, the more often they consider the recent presidential election as open and democratic. Young respondents aged 13-23 (Zoomers) are more likely than Russians in general to say so (60%); whereas older generations (Stagnation and Thaw generations), despite being actively involved in the topic, often have doubts (38% and 35% respectively) or evade the question (37% and 41% respectively).

Those who followed the US presidential election often tend to consider them open and democratic (40% of positive vs. 33% of negative assessments).

The best among…?

Trump’s personality is more relatable to Russians than previous American presidents. This is proved by a relatively low percentage of those who failed to describe his future activity as American president (32 vs. 40%, Obama in 2009, 44%, Biden in 2021).  It is not about his second term: in 2016 the degree of uncertainty was also lower than his predecessors and his successor had (31%). As eight years ago, today public expectations for D.Trump are largely neutral and positive: 35% expect him to be an average president for his country; 19%, a good president; 8%, one of the best (2016 — 35%, 22% and 6% respectively).

In the grip of hopes

Four-in-ten Russians expect changes in the bilateral relations between Russia and the U.S.A with Trump’s return to the White House (39%), including 33%who expect changes for the better and only 6%, for the worse.  Another 46% believe that no changes will happen. Based on the data, it can be concluded that Trump is perceived as more friendly towards Russia than Obama and especially Biden: 25% expressed hope for improvement in the bilateral relations (in 2012) and 12% (in 2021), respectively. At the same time, Russians have become more moderate in optimism compared to 2016, when a whopping 46% of respondents hoped for a thaw in Russia-US relations with Trump’s election.

There is a generational gap in perceptions of the outcome of the US presidential election. Zoomers are more likely to lay hopes on Trump: 62% expect improvement in Russia-US relations after Trump’s return to the white House; 43% believe he will become a good president for his country. On the contrary, the remaining respondents support a status quo (“nothing will change in the bilateral relations”) (42-54%) expecting Trump to become an ‘average’ president (34-40%).

 All-Russian VCIOM-Sputnik telephone survey was conducted November 8, 2024. A total of 1,600 respondents aged 18 and older took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interview, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of 8 November, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7621; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0215; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0742. Calculations are based on corporate standard https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

 ** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.

* Candidates for the 2008 US presidential election were Barack Obama and John McCain, for the 2016 election, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton; for the 2020 election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

** the question wording was “At the end of the last year the U.S. held a presidential election. Did you watch the US presidential election or not?”

* In 2012 the question was as follows: “In your opinion, how will the election of Barack Obama as American president affect the relations between our countries?”

** In 2021 the question was as follows “In your opinion, how will the election of Joe Biden as American president affect the relations between Russia and the U.S.A.?”

* Before 2017, surveys were conducted through household face-to-face interviews (Express project); stratified multi-stage sample, with quotas based on socio-demographic parameters; representative of the Russian population aged 18+, according to type of settlement, gender, age, education and federal district. Sample size: 1,600 respondents.