MOSCOW, 20 January 2025. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a survey describing what Russians think about the new elect president Donald Trump.

Old new president

On January 20, Donald Trump is taking office as American president for the second time. Even though many Russians followed the presidential race, today the majority of Russians say they are indifferent to Donald Trump (61%); another 22% are likely to favor Trump; 11% hold unfavorable views.

The results of the previous survey suggest that trust in this politician began to be shuttered as early as his first presidential term. Within a month (from March to April 2017.) Russians’ liking for Trump gave way to rage: the share of those who had a negative attitude towards Trump increased from 7% to 39%; on the contrary, the share of those who had a positive attitude towards him decreased from 38% to 13%. In a matter of days before the end of the US president’s term most of Russians were indifferent to Trump (60% in January 2021); the percentage of those who disfavored him was at 25%, and the share of those who favored him was at a minimum of 9%. Today much more Russians are loyal to him, with indifference being at the same levels.

Not a friend, nor an enemy

Based on the findings, Russian expectations of Trump’s presidency are much more moderate compared to 2016. Nine years ago, every second Russian believed that Russia-US relationships would improve with a Republican coming to power (46%), however today most of respondents do not have any expectations in this matter (“nothing will change” — 45%); over the recent two months Russian expectations have been stable (November 2024 — 46%). A further 35% expect changes for the better (“relationships will improve”), and only 7% are extremely pessimistic (“relationships will deteriorate”). Whatever the dynamics of Trump’s perceptions, Russians view him as a more desirable US president than Obama or Biden were; the percentages of Russians who expected improvements in the bilateral relationships during their presidencies were 25% (in 2012) and 12% (in 2021), respectively.

America’s Golden Age, Make USA Great Again

“Make USA Great Again!” is one of Donald Trump’s political slogans during his 2016 political campaign. This promise is still valid. Today a vast majority of Russians are rather skeptical about Trump’s sounding promises: four in ten respondents believe that his presidency will have no impact on the U.S. global position (41%); another 28% expect strengthening of the U.S. position globally; and only 9% expect it to be weakened. A further 22% did not speculate on possible foreign policy successes of the new American president.

Vague prospect

Russians are more likely not to believe that one of Trump’s promises - to put an end to the conflict in Ukraine – can be fulfilled: half of Russians are confident that the current president will not be able to achieve it (51%). They are opposed by 31% (“likely to achieve it”); a further 18% remained undecided.

Belief in Trump’s diplomatic talent depends on the attitudes towards the politician. Those Russians who favor Donald Trump are more inclined to believe that he can put an end to the conflict within the set period (56%), compared to those who disfavor him (19%) or are indifferent (24%).

Russian VCIOM-Sputnik telephone survey was conducted January 15, 2025. A total of 1,600 respondents aged 18 and older took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interview, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of 15 January, 2025: cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7719; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0209; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0755. Calculations are based on corporate standard https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

 ** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.

*In 2012 the question asked was “In your opinion, what impact will the election of Barack Obama as U.S. president have on the bilateral relations between our countries?”

** In 2021 the question asked was “In your opinion, what impact will the election of Joe Biden as U.S. president have on the bilateral relations between U.S. and Russia?”

* Before 2017, surveys were conducted through household face-to-face interviews (Express project); stratified multi-stage sample, with quotas based on socio-demographic parameters; representative of the Russian population aged 18+, according to type of settlement, gender, age, education and federal district. Sample size: 1,600 respondents.