MOSCOW, 20 March 2026. The VCIOM Analytical Center presents the findings of a survey among Russians on the military conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran.
Major international news
Events in the Middle East have dominated the news in recent days and have attracted widespread attention in Russia. An overwhelming majority of Russians have at least heard about the military conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran. Awareness is highest among those who use both television and the internet for news, but even among those who use neither, a majority are aware of the conflict, which means that it is widely discussed beyond the media.
Among those aware of the conflict, most respondents continue to follow developments. Older Russians are more likely to be both aware of and engaged with the conflict, whereas younger respondents are more likely to have only a general awareness of it.
Overall, the findings suggest that conflicts of this scale quickly become a topic of broad public attention, even when they unfold far from Russia.
High stakes
The conflict in the Middle East is a source of concern for Russians. Seven in ten Russians say they are concerned about the conflict in the Middle East. Concern is more prevalent among women, older respondents, and residents of the North Caucasus Federal District, the Russian region closest to the conflict zone.
Concerns about the conflict center on three main issues. First, the risk of a major escalation that may lead to a third world war and the use of nuclear weapons. Second, the humanitarian consequences of the conflict, such as loss of life, destruction, and displacement. Third, potential risks for Russia, both direct, such as being drawn into the conflict, and indirect, such as rising prices and economic instability.
The findings suggest that Russians view the conflict not only as a regional crisis but also as a potential threat to global security and to Russia itself. Expectations of further escalation are widespread: nearly eight in ten believe the current hostilities could develop into a major international conflict. This perception is shared across all age groups.
No involvement?
The USSR and Russia have rarely remained fully neutral in Middle Eastern conflicts, often balancing support for allies with diplomatic engagement. In the current conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, however, public opinion strongly favors neutrality. Most Russians support either mediation or non-involvement. Non-intervention is particularly strong among younger respondents.
One in five respondents favors supporting Iran; this position is more common among older age groups. Hardly anyone supports the United States and Israel. Iran has traditionally been considered Russia’s partner country, while the United States and its allies are viewed unfavorably amid long-standing tensions that have escalated in the context of the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
‘VCIOM-Sputnik’ nationwide telephone survey was conducted on March 6, 2026. The survey involved 1,600 Russians aged 18 and older. The method used was a telephone interview based on a stratified random sample drawn from a comprehensive list of mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted by socio-demographic parameters. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence level, does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, survey results may also be affected by question wording and various circumstances arising during fieldwork.
Key survey effectiveness indicators as of March 6, 2026: cooperation rate (CR) *= 0.6819; minimum response rate (MRR) = 0.0150; response rate (RR) *** = 0.0547**
Calculations are based on corporate standard:
* CR: the ratio of completed interviews to the sum of: (a) completed interviews and (b) all non-completed interviews with respondents who confirmed that they met the sampling criteria
* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.
** MRR: the ratio of completed interviews to the sum of: (a) completed interviews, (b) interrupted interviews after successful screening, and (c) all respondents for whom it remained unknown whether they met the sampling criteria.
**RR is calculated in the same way as the MRR, with the only difference being that the number of respondents whose eligibility remains unknown is reduced proportionally to the share of eligible respondents among all respondents whose eligibility status (eligible or not) was successfully determined.
On February 28, 2026, a military conflict began between the United States and Israel on the one hand, and Iran on the other. Do you know about it, have you heard anything about it, or is this the first time you’ve heard about it? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |||||||||
| Total | Men | Women | Digital Generation (born in 2001 and later) | Yunger Millennials (1992–2000) | Older Millennials (1982-1991) | Reform Generation (1968–1981) | Stagnation Generation (1948–1967) | Thaw Generation (born before 1947) |
I’m aware | 60 | 66 | 55 | 37 | 47 | 58 | 62 | 70 | 63 |
I heard something | 35 | 31 | 38 | 53 | 46 | 36 | 32 | 27 | 31 |
This is the first time I’ve heard about it | 5 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
On February 28, 2026, a military conflict began between the United States and Israel on the one hand, and Iran on the other. Do you know about it, have you heard anything about it, or is this the first time you’ve heard about it? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |||||
| Total | Heavy TV viewers | Heavy TV and internet users | Heavy internet users | Non-users of TV and the internet |
I’m aware | 60 | 56 | 65 | 56 | 28 |
I heard something | 35 | 35 | 32 | 38 | 47 |
This is the first time I’ve heard about it | 5 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
Do you follow the developments or not? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of those who are “aware/have heard”) | |||||||||
| Total | Men | Women | Digital Generation (born in 2001 and later) | Yunger Millennials (1992–2000) | Older Millennials (1982-1991) | Reform Generation (1968–1981) | Stagnation Generation (1948–1967) | Thaw Generation (born before 1947) |
Yes | 70 | 75 | 65 | 49 | 51 | 62 | 76 | 79 | 89 |
No | 29 | 25 | 33 | 51 | 49 | 38 | 23 | 20 | 8 |
Don’t know | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Does the ongoing military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran cause you concern or not?* (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |||||||||
| Total | Men | Women | Digital Generation (born in 2001 and later) | Yunger Millennials (1992–2000) | Older Millennials (1982-1991) | Reform Generation (1968–1981) | Stagnation Generation (1948–1967) | Thaw Generation (born before 1947) |
Yes, probably | 72 | 67 | 75 | 51 | 61 | 62 | 74 | 84 | 85 |
No, probably not | 23 | 28 | 19 | 40 | 36 | 32 | 21 | 12 | 8 |
Don’t know | 5 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
*For respondents who had not previously heard about the conflict the following statement was read out: “The United States and Israel carried out strikes on Iran. Iran responded with strikes against Israel and Arab countries in the region that are partners of the United States”.
Please specify what concerns you? (open-ended question, one answer, % of those who say the conflict causes them concern) | |
Risk of a large-scale war, escalation, and global consequences |
|
Third world war / global conflict / fear of nuclear weapons being used/ nuclear war/ spread of the conflict to other countries or regions / prolongation of the conflict /escalation | 38 |
US and Israeli aggression/ / violation of another country’s borders/ wrongdoing / violation of international law | 8 |
Foreign policy problems/ it will affect the whole world/ global instability/ world economic problems/ rising oil prices | 8 |
Humanitarian consequences |
|
People dying / sympathy for people / people suffering/ concern for acquaintances living abroad/who are on vacation | 12 |
War is always bad / anxiety / fear / there won’t be anything good / unknown consequences/ disruptions to air traffic/tourism/refugees | 11 |
Impact on Russia |
|
Concerns about the impact on Russia/ Concerns that Russia can be drawn into the conflict/ if Iran loses, Russia can be next / we are close to the region | 11 |
How it will impact Russia / what consequences it will have for Russia / economic consequences/ rising prices | 5 |
Concern for Iran |
|
Concern for Iran / Hope that Iran wins / Iran is a friendly country and a traditional partner of Russia / Russia's ally | 4 |
Other | 3 |
Don’t know | 0 |
In your opinion, could the current hostilities in the Middle East lead to a major international conflict involving many countries, or not? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |||||||||
| Total | Men | Women | Digital Generation (born in 2001 and later) | Yunger Millennials (1992–2000) | Older Millennials (1982-1991) | Reform Generation (1968–1981) | Stagnation Generation (1948–1967) | Thaw Generation (born before 1947) |
Probably could | 76 | 80 | 73 | 66 | 72 | 73 | 81 | 79 | 73 |
Probably could not | 14 | 13 | 15 | 21 | 14 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 20 |
Don’t know | 10 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
In your opinion, what position should Russia take in this conflict? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |||||||||
| Total | Men | Women | Digital Generation (born in 2001 and later) | Yunger Millennials (1992–2000) | Older Millennials (1982-1991) | Reform Generation (1968–1981) | Stagnation Generation (1948–1967) | Thaw Generation (born before 1947) |
Remain neutral and act as a mediator | 39 | 38 | 40 | 39 | 36 | 40 | 39 | 40 | 41 |
Remain neutral and not to intervene | 30 | 25 | 34 | 42 | 44 | 32 | 28 | 21 | 27 |
Support Iran | 21 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 26 | 29 | 21 |
Support the US and Israel | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Other | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
Don’t know | 6 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
Author: Tatyana Smak