Russian interest in American elections keeps increasing. Russians think that the Trump’s victory would be more beneficial to Russia than the victory of Hillary Clinton.
MOSCOW, October 21, 2016. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the data of the survey describing the Russian interest and perceptions of the U.S. election campaign.
As the U.S. elections approach, Russian interest in the American presidential campaign is going up: over a month the share of those who are interested in the election campaign has doubled (53%) – from 41% in July this year. But only 12% are keeping a close eye on the election campaign; 41% watch the news from time to time.
Fifty-seven percent of Russians consider that the outcome of the elections is important to Russia; they are opposed by 38%. The share of those who are undecided has considerably decreased over the recent years: it is 5-6% this year, compared to 15-18% in 2008.
For the development of the U.S.-Russia bilateral relations the victory of Donald Trump is more important, according to respondents. The percentage of those who say that the bilateral relations will get better in case Trump is elected is 29%; only 4% would tell the same about Clinton. Eight percent are confident that the Trump’s victory will have a bad impact on the relations; 45% predict an aggravation, if Clinton wins.
Every third Russian (35%) believes that the Trump’s victory meets Russia’s national interest; and this share is bigger among those Russians who think than the outcome of the American elections is important for Russia (44%). Six percent consider that the Clinton’s victory is more preferential to Russia. Every fifth (22%) thinks that none of the candidates satisfies Russia’s interest.
Half of Russians (52%) suppose that the considerable age of both candidates is a sign of degradation of the American election system. They are opposed by 23% of Russians. As to respondents with high income, most of them think that the both candidates’ age refers to good political experience and ensures stable system (27%); those with low level of income are less inclined to share this stance (17%).
VCIOM survey was conducted on October 8-9, 2016, in 130 settlements, 46 regions and 9 federal districts of Russia. Sample size was 1600 persons. The survey was conducted with multi-stage stratified sample based on general rule of walking and quotas at the final selection stage; the sample is representative of the Russian population aged 18 and over according to sex, age, education, type of settlement. The margin of error (taking into account the design effect) with 95% confidence interval does not exceed 3.5%. The survey method is community-based structured face-to-face interviews. Apart from the margin of error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the field work should be taken into account.
The 2016 American presidential campaign is in the process. Are you watching it or not? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | ||||
| VIII.2004 | VI.2008 | VII.2016 | X.2016 |
Yes, very attentively | 5 | 4 | 11 | 12 |
Yes, from time to time | 31 | 32 | 30 | 41 |
No | 60 | 61 | 58 | 46 |
Don’t know | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
In your opinion, is the outcome of the American presidential election important for Russia? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | |||||
| II.2008 | VI.2008 | IX.2008 | VII.2016 | X.2016 |
It is important | 48 | 51 | 54 | 59 | 57 |
It is not important | 34 | 32 | 31 | 35 | 38 |
Don’t know | 18 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 5 |
In your opinion, if Donald Trump wins the elections, what impact may it have on Russia-U.S. relations? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | |||
| Total respondents | Election outcome is important for Russia | Election outcome is not important for Russia |
Relations are likely to improve | 29 | 39 | 18 |
Relations are likely to deteriorate | 8 | 8 | 7 |
Nothing will change | 36 | 26 | 54 |
Don’t know | 27 | 27 | 21 |
In your opinion, if Hilary Clinton wins the elections, what impact may it have on Russia-U.S. relations? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | |||
| Total respondents | Election outcome is important for Russia | Election outcome is not important for Russia |
Relations are likely to improve | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Relations are likely to deteriorate | 45 | 56 | 34 |
Nothing will change | 29 | 19 | 45 |
Don’t know | 22 | 20 | 18 |
In your opinion, whose victory in the U.S. presidential elections meets best Russia’s national interest? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | |||
| Total respondents | Election outcome is important for Russia | Election outcome is not important for Russia |
Donald Trump | 35 | 44 | 25 |
Hillary Clinton | 6 | 7 | 5 |
No one of the above mentioned | 22 | 17 | 33 |
I thinks the elections will fail | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Other candidate (specify) | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Don’t know | 31 | 26 | 29 |
During the upcoming U.S. presidential elections Americans will have to choose between two candidates: one of them is 68 years old, the other one is 70 years old. Which statement is closer to you point of view? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | ||||
| Total respondents | Respondents with good financial income | Average financial income | Poor financial income |
The candidates’ advanced age refers to the stability in the American system; it means that the presidential office is inherited by the most experienced persons | 23 | 27 | 24 | 17 |
The candidates’ advanced age refers to the degradation of American system; this system is unsustainable. | 52 | 43 | 52 | 59 |
Don’t know | 25 | 30 | 24 | 24 |
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!