MOSCOW, 01 April 2024. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a monitoring survey devoted to Russian emigrational intentions.

Leave or stay?

In recent years, there has been a revival in the emigration discourse in Russia: experts started to talk about a new wave of the Russian emigration, relocants have been increasingly mentioned in mass media. However, a March survey reveals that the period of adaptation to the new reality is likely over: today Russian emigration mood has almost disappeared: an overwhelming majority of Russians do not consider moving abroad permanently (93%), whereas the share of those who are willing to emigrate from their country has hit a record low over the entire period monitoring reaching 5% (since 1991).

The years 2019-2021 were a relatively favorable period for moving abroad; at that time 16-17% of Russians reported their desire to emigrate. The same migration potential was recorded in 1991 (16%); however whereas 3-5 years ago the number of those willing to stay in their home country was at 81-82%, in early 1990s this percentage was only 70% (a record low over the entire period of measurement) because of a high number of the undecided ones. 

Changes in emigration scale as viewed by Russians

The issue of the scale of emigration splits Russians into three equal groups:  22% say that the number of those who left Russia permanently has increased over the recent six months; 25% say their number has decreased; 24% say their number has not changed. Another 29% are undecided. Similar distribution of answers was obtained in 2018 (23%, 27%, 27% and 23% respectively). Not long ago the situation was not so encouraging: a January 2023 survey showed that 53% of Russians said that the number of Russians who had left Russia permanently had increased over the previous six months, meaning that emigration peaked in the second half of 2022.  

Any sandpiper is great in his own swamp

Over the recent three years perceptions of emigration have changed: whereas in 2021 most of Russians thought people should live in the country they felt comfortable to live in (51% vs. 42% of those who oppose), today a majority tends to think that it is important to live where you were raised and received education (64% vs. 30%).

As to children, Russians have similar viewpoints: the previous March survey suggested that a vast majority of Russians would not like their children and grandchildren to live (83%), to work (70%) or to get education (71%) abroad.

VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide telephone survey was conducted 4 March, 2024. A total of 1,600 Russians aged 18+ took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interviews, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. Data were weighted for social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of March 4, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.8044; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0150; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0948.

Calculations are based on the corporate standard: https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.

* Before 2021, the question wording was as follows: “Over the recent several years has the number of those who left Russia permanently increased, decreased or not changed in general?”.

* In 2021, the answer options were as follows —” It’s wrong to emigrate from the country where you were raised and received education” and “People should live in the country where they feel comfortable to live”.

Before 2017, surveys were conducted through household face-to-face interviews (“Express” project); stratified multi-stage quota-based sample; quotas based on socio-demographic parameters, representative of the Russian population aged 18+ by settlement type, sex, gender, education and federal district. Sample size: 1,600 respondents.