MOSCOW, 22 July 2024. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a survey describing the Russian interest in the political situation in the USA as the elections approach.  

US elections

The next US presidential election will take place in November this year. As four years ago, the candidates are Donald Trump representing the Republican party and Joe Biden representing the Democratic party. More than half of Russians are keeping an eye on the electoral campaign (63%), including every tenth respondent (12%), very closely, and every second (51%), occasionally. In Russia, interest in the upcoming elections is as high as in 2020 (64%) and higher than during the 2004, the 2008 and the 2016 elections (32-41%).

Those who follow the electoral campaign are basically men (67% vs. 59% of women); the older the Russians are, the more interested in the electoral campaign they are, but even young respondents show high levels of interest (49% of those aged 18-24 and 76% in older cohort). Those who are more interested in the electoral campaign are also metropolitan residents (71%), respondents with higher and incomplete higher education diplomas (68%), active TV viewers (68%) and those who choose a mixed model of media consumption (72% vs. 51% of Internet users).

Biden or Trump?

VCIOM revealed that Russians are going to support Donald Trump: four out of ten Russians would vote for him (42%). Remarkably, Russians and Americans are unanimous in their opinions: a recent survey conducted by Pew Research Center[1] showed that 44% of American voters were going to vote for Donald Trump. Joe Biden is not popular among Russians: just 4% say they would vote for him (in the USA — 40%).

Since the previous 2020 elections, the situation has dramatically changed. Firstly, apparently the Russian involvement in what is happening has increased. Whereas in 2021 70% said they would not participate in the US presidential election, today this percentage has halved (38%). Secondly, Donald Trump managed to grow his audience in Russia by 3.5-fold (from 12% in 2021 to 42% in 2024). The only thing that remained unchanged is J.Biden’s low popularity (2021— 7%; 2024— 4%).

Every second respondent (50%) believes that Russia does not care who will win the US presidential elections. However, more respondents point to Donald Trump: 30% are confident that his victory is likely to meet Russia’s national interest. Only 4% named Joe Biden.

Political rivalry or a public stunt?

On July 13 Donald Trump was holding a pre-election rally when he was shot in his ear. Photos where Trump is seen bleeding from his right ear went viral, and the case received wide publicity. In Russia nine out of ten respondents are aware of this case (89%), including 46% who are well informed about that.

The US surveys reveal that 41% of the voters consider that the attempted assassination of Trump was committed by his opponents[2]; in Russia most of respondents think similarly: every fourth (24%) believes that the attempted assassination was orchestrated by Joe Biden, his team, Democratic party supporters. Nine percent of respondents consider that it was Trump who orchestrated his own assassination attempt - this version is largely popular on social media and on the Internet. Another 4% say that the assassination attempt could have been organized by American special services or a mentally ill person; 3% think it was done by those who are dissatisfied with his policies. Other versions: Trump’s circles, Ukraine, Americans, whoever (2%, each). Almost half of Russians do not have any idea about who orchestrated the assassination attempt (48%).

All-Russian VCIOM-Sputnik telephone surveys were conducted July 18, 2024. A total of 1,600 respondents aged 18 and older took part in each survey. Survey method: telephone interviews, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of 18 July, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0,7581; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0,0139; response rate (RR)*** = 0,0684. Calculations are based on corporate standard https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

 ** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.

** In 2021, the question was asked after the elections were held and was as follows: “At the end of the last year the USA held presidential elections. Were you following the US presidential elections, or not?” Respondents were offered answer options in the past tense: “Yes, I followed the entire campaign”? I didn’t follow it closely but was interested from time to time”, “No, I didn’t follow it” and “Don’t know”. 

* Before 2017, surveys were conducted through household face-to-face interviews (“Express” project); stratified multi-stage quota-based sample; quotas based on socio-demographic parameters, representative of the Russian population aged 18+ by settlement type, age, gender, education. Sample size, unless otherwise stated, is 1,600 respondents.

[1]

www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/07/11/amid-doubts-about-bidens-mental-sharpness-trump-leads-presidential-race/

[2]

www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/gop_voters_blame_anti_trump_rhetoric_for_assassination_attempt