MOSCOW, 31 October 2024. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a survey describing what Russians think about the political situation in the US amidst the upcoming presidential elections.

Anticipating the elections

There is less than a week left before the most anticipated political event in the US. The outcome of this autumn’s presidential race will be a milestone defining the political course of the United States for the next four years. Literally the whole world is watching the contest between Kamala Harris, the current Vice President representing the Democratic party, and Donald Trump, a former US president from the Republican Party; Russia is not an exclusion.

According to a recent VCIOM survey, over the last three months public interest in the US presidential race has slightly increased (+5 p.p. since August 2024.), getting closer to the July figures. In late October, six out of ten respondents followed the presidential campaign in varying degrees (60%), and rather loosely. Every second respondent reports to follow it from time to time (49%), whereas only 11% of Russians keep a close eye on the electoral campaign – since July this share has not changed much, meaning that as the election approaches, Russians do not watch them more closely than before. Four out of ten Russians do not show any interest in them at all (39% “don’t follow the campaign”).

For whom?

Based on the RealСlearPolitics[1] findings dated October 31, 2024, ratings of Trump and Harris became equal. Experts report that the winner of the election is to be determined by seven “swing” states (Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, etc.). The results of the monitoring study reveal that Russians are likely to support republicans, more precisely, a former republican president of the US.  If Russians had their right to vote in the US presidential elections, four in ten respondents would support Donald Trump (40%, August 2024 – 37%) and only 8% would vote for Kamala Harris. About a third of respondents would not take part in the elections (35%, -5 p.p. since August); another 17% remained undecided.

Election legitimacy

Early voting is well underway. Today more than 50 mln Americans have taken part in it, either in person or by mail. According to a survey conducted by Pew Research Center a week ago, a majority of American voters expect November elections to go “at least well”  (73%). Russians do not share their optimism, pointing out low legitimacy of the US presidential election: according to every second respondent, the election is unfair, with major violations (52%). Every fifth thinks the election is fair and has no major violations (21%); a further 27% failed to assess the legitimacy of the US presidential election.

All-Russian VCIOM-Sputnik telephone survey was conducted October 27, 2024. A total of 1,600 respondents aged 18 and older took part in each survey. Survey method: telephone interview, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of 27 October, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7498; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0207; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0989. Calculations are based on corporate standard https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

 ** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.

* Before 2017, surveys were conducted through household face-to-face interviews (“Express” project); stratified multi-stage quota-based sample; quotas based on socio-demographic parameters, representative of the Russian population aged 18+ by settlement type, age, gender, education, and federal district. Sample size:  1,600 respondents.

[1] See: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/