MOSCOW, 21 September 2022. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the findings of a survey about the sources of military threats.

Unstable international situation has affected Russian perceptions of military threat. Over the recent three years the share of those who feel a military threat has increased by 10 p.p., (41% in August this year vs 31% in 2019.). The index hit -9 points.

Over the recent five years (except for April 2018) the index took negative values, with a minimum in August 2019 (−30 points), when one-third of Russians felt military threat (31%), and more than half of respondents denied any threat (61%).

Today Russians consider that the main source of threat of a military attack comes from the U.S.A. (62%, +9 p.p. since August 2019). A third of respondents mentioned Ukraine (32%); this share was twice as high in December 2018 (57%) – the only time when Ukraine slightly outperformed the U.S. in people’s rating of military threats. The share of respondents who consider Poland as a source of potential threat has increased 6.5-fold in three years (from 4% to 26%); Great Britain, a 4.5–fold rise (from 4% to 18%). On the contrary, the number of Russians who pointed to China has considerably decreased (from 7% to 2%).

Military threat index shows Russian subjective opinions about probable military threats to Russia. The index is based on the question “In your opinion, is there any military threat to Russia from any country today?”. The index is calculated as a difference between positive and negative responses. The higher the index, the more likely Russians think that there is an actual military threat. The index value can fluctuate between −100 and 100 points.

VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide telephone survey was conducted 13 August, 2022. A total of 1,600 Russians aged 18 and over took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interviews using a stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted according to social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

August 13, 2022 survey key effectiveness indicators:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.8197; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0194; response rate (RR)*** = 0.1544. Calculations based on corporate standard:   https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

***RR: RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.