MOSCOW, 28 January 2026. VCIOM Analytical Center presents the findings of a study on social and psychological state of the Russian society using the author’s “Emotional tonometer” methodology.

Four types of emotional adaptation

According to the January study, a positive emotional background is dominant among Russians: the major feelings defying the state of people in the beginning of the year were friendliness, hope and calmness. More than half of respondents said they were confident and joyful. Inspiration was reported less often (experienced by half of respondents). Negative emotions and feelings were reported noticeably less often: most often respondents said they were anxious (experienced by four out of ten respondents). It is followed by sadness and irritation. Fear, confusion and anger were the least frequently reported emotions.

In terms of emotions, the Russian society can be divided into the following groups:

• ‘Life-affirming’ (the most numerous group; positive emotions are dominant; 34%).
• ‘Reserved’ (25%, every fourth); less likely to show emotions, feelings; typically, emotional restraint and internal experiencing of feelings.
• ‘Anxious’ (23%, almost every fourth), negative emotions are dominant.
• ‘Excited’ (18%, almost every fifth), those who more intensely experience the entire spectrum of the emotions under study; emotions are more often shown outwardly - in personal interactions, on social media, and when evaluating the current issues, etc.

The segmentation presented here partially aligns with the classical temperament typology, ranging from enthusiastic, optimistic sanguines to melancholics inclined toward internal emotional processing.

Demography of emotions

Notable differences in the prevailing emotional tone, from positive to negative, are evident in the intergenerational analysis, particularly between the two youngest age groups. Generation Z exhibits the highest level of optimism: 46% of them are classified as ‘life-affirming,’ while only 13% are ‘anxious’, which can be partly explained by their minimal social burdens. As people mature and encounter real-life responsibilities, optimism among Russians diminishes, while anxiety becomes more pronounced. The highest levels of anxiety are observed in younger Millennials, who, unlike Gen Z, have begun to encounter life’s long-term obligations — building a family, childbearing, and owning a home. The intensity and expression of emotional reactions differ completely between genders: men often internalize and restrain their emotions, while women more frequently communicate them outwardly.

Aggregate indicators of the socio-psychological state of society

Based on the obtained segmentation, two aggregate indicators were calculated: the first reflects the dominant emotional background along the positive–negative dimension, and the second reflects the intensity of emotional experiences, which can be either positive or negative in nature. The Emotional Assessment Index, calculated as the difference between the values of the ‘life-affirming’ and ‘anxious’ emotional states, was 11 points in the current measurement. The Tension Vector, represented by the difference between the values of the ‘excited’ and ‘restrained’ emotional states, is currently in the negative range (−6 points), indicating that societal tension is restrained, suppressed, and internalized by individuals.

A potential margin of error of ±1–2 points should be considered in the index calculations due to value rounding.

* The Emotional Assessment Index reflects the dominant emotional background along the positive–negative dimension. It is calculated as the difference between the ‘life-affirming’ and ‘anxious’ emotional states. If the emotional assessment index approaches zero or falls below (negative values, ‘–’), negative emotional states are intensified. The higher the index value (positive values, ‘+’), the more favorable the emotional climate in society.

** The Tension Vector characterizes the intensity of emotional experiences, which can be either positive or negative. It is calculated as the difference between the ‘excited’ and ‘restrained’ emotional states. If the tension vector approaches zero or takes positive values (‘+’), there is a higher likelihood that tension will be expressed outwardly, toward social or political institutions. In this case, the tension may reflect either positive emotions (e.g., patriotic enthusiasm) or negative ones (e.g., protest potential). If the vector value falls below zero (negative values, ‘–’), societal tension is restrained, suppressed, and directed inwardly within individuals

‘VCIOM-Sputnik’ nationwide telephone survey was conducted on January 15, 2026. The survey involved 1,600 Russians aged 18 and older. The method used was a telephone interview based on a stratified random sample drawn from a comprehensive list of mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted by socio-demographic parameters. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence level, does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, survey results may also be affected by question wording and various circumstances arising during fieldwork.

Key survey effectiveness indicators as of January 15, 2026: cooperation rate (CR) *= 0.7206; minimum response rate (MRR) = 0.0198; response rate (RR) *** = 0.0747.”**

Calculations are based on corporate standard:

 * CR: the ratio of completed interviews to the sum of: (a) completed interviews and (b) all non-completed interviews with respondents who confirmed that they met the sampling criteria

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the ratio of completed interviews to the sum of: (a) completed interviews, (b) interrupted interviews after successful screening, and (c) all respondents for whom it remained unknown whether they met the sampling criteria.

**RR is calculated in the same way as the MRR, with the only difference being that the number of respondents whose eligibility remains unknown is reduced proportionally to the share of eligible respondents among all respondents whose eligibility status (eligible or not) was successfully determined.

*Based on the results of cluster analysis (k-means method) using the following question: ‘I will now list various emotions and feelings. Please indicate for each emotion whether it rather applies or rather does not apply to your mood in the last 2–3 days’. In total, respondents were asked to rate 12 emotions: joy, inspiration, kindness, hope, confidence, calmness, fear, anxiety, confusion, sadness, anger, and irritation.

** January data are based on the survey conducted on January 15, 2026.

Author: Lyudmila Karpova