MOSCOW, 03 July 2024. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a monitoring survey devoted to the emigration intentions of Russians.

Staying or moving

Over the recent year the emigration topics has been widely discussed. Despite the fact that 2022 was a difficult year in terms of emigration, the year 2023 showed a positive migration balance: the number of those who left Russia during that period decreased by 218,1 thousand persons, or by 32,6%[1].

Today only 5% of Russians would like to move permanently abroad, whereas a vast majority (93%) would not do that. Over the entire period of measurement, the percentage of those eager to move has been within a range of 5%-17%; the last year figures are the lowest. Since 2022 the number of Russians willing to stay in Russia has been increasing (2021 – 81%; March 2022 - 88%). Simultaneously, the share of those who may move abroad has halved since 2022 (March 2022 – 10%; June 2024 – 5%).   

Several periods of migration mood can be singled out through analysis.

1. Early 1990s (1991) — 16%. This period is characteristic of profound political and economic change in Russia after the collapse of the USSR, when the iron curtain dropped and many Russians beelined for new opportunities in search of wider freedoms.

2. Decrease in emigration mood in 2000s – first half of 2010s (2011-2018) up to 10-13%. This period was marked by the stabilization of the situation in Russia, economic growth and increased living standards, which hindered Russians’ desire to move abroad.

3. Growth in emigration mood in 2019-2021 up to 16-17%. This period dealt with growing political tensions, aggravating economic situation, sanctions and the pandemic; there was a small increase in migration intentions.

4. Decrease in emigration mood in 2022-2024 up to 5-10%. This period is marked by the launch of the special military operation, aggravation of relations with the West, strengthened sovereignty and state support for economy, business and other spheres.  During this period a decrease in the number of those willing to move permanently abroad may be caused by the consolidation of the Russian society, steady adaptation to day-to-day realities, as well as restrictions related to leaving Russia.

An overwhelming majority of Russians want to stay in Russia and would like their children to live in Russia too (84%). Over the recent ten years this stance has become more widespread (72% in 2014). A further 2% would like to give their children an opportunity to live in the USSR; other countries do not gain more than 1%.

Migration plans and motives

Half of those who report their readiness to move (45%) have not thought about when they would like to do it. This response has been the most popular in all the measurements (39-51%). Another 21% do not know when they will be able to move although they have thought about that. Only 12% say they are going to implement their plans within a year or two.

Migration moods are largely driven by economic situation in the country (37% of those willing to move) and dissatisfaction with the domestic policy and government’s performance (35%). The remainder responses are less frequent: climate (11%), better education, searching for a new life (10%, each), lack of stability, SMO and possible mobilization (9%, each), dissatisfaction with social policies (7%), etc.

All-Russian VCIOM-Sputnik telephone survey was conducted 15 June, 2024. A total of 1,600 respondents aged 18 and older took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interviews, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of 15 June, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7686; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0119; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0416. Calculations are based on corporate standard https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

 ** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.

* Before 2017, surveys were conducted through household face-to-face interviews (“Express” project); stratified multi-stage quota-based sample; quotas based on socio-demographic parameters, representative of the Russian population aged 18+ by settlement type, sex, gender, education. Sample size, unless otherwise stated, is 1,600 respondents.  

[1] Federal State Statistics Service. Population size and migration in the Russian Federation. https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/2024/02-29/tQ1QjJBq/Doklad_01-2024/4-0_01-2024.doc.