MOSCOW, 21 October 2024. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a monitoring study about the attitudes of Russians towards penalties for promoting a childfree lifestyle.

Free of… children

The State Duma is currently discussing a law imposing penalties for promoting a childfree lifestyle; about half of Russians have heard about that (49%), including 23% who are well aware, and 26% who know about it superficially. The other half of respondents (51%) know nothing about that. Those who are more informed are Russians with higher or incomplete higher education diplomas (33% are well aware), residents of large cities (Moscow, St Petersburg and million-plus cities — 31-37%), active Internet users — 32%). As to age groups, those who are more informed are persons who are concerned about childbirth: reproductive age Russians (Zoomers, Millennials and the Reform generation); in these groups, the percentage of those who have heard about the law or know about it is at 52-55% (vs 54% among the Stagnation generation and 69% the Thaw generation).

To fine or not to fine

There is no consensus on whether to introduce penalties for the childfree propaganda in Russia, or not: 44% support and 48% oppose this initiative. Moreover, there is a serious difference of opinion between younger generations and older generations. Zoomers tend to flatly oppose the initiative (78% oppose and 17% are support); this is typical of younger millennials too (66% and 30% respectively). As to older millennials, both viewpoints are popular (46% support and 45% oppose); this is also common for the Thaw generation (45% and 44%). The situation is different for the Reform generation and the Stagnation generation: they tend to support penalties against childfree propaganda (49-52%) rather than to oppose it (38-42%).

Russians who have no children often oppose penalties for the childfree lifestyle propaganda (63% vs. 43% of those who have children).

Urbanization rate is another factor behind support: the larger the settlement, the more often people are against restrictions (57-59% in both capitals and million-plus cities and 40% in rural area).

What to expect?

Most of Russians (41%) believe that introducing penalties for childfree propaganda will bring neither benefits, nor harm to society. However equal shares of respondents point out either benefits (25%) or harm (24%). Thus, a vast majority of Russians will not broadly support the penalties, as the majority (66%) doubt the effectiveness of such measures.

Effectiveness and benefit from penalties for the childfree propaganda cast doubt even among those who support the initiative: 53% see benefits, but 28%, despite support, do not think they will have positive impacts. Those who oppose the penalties see no benefits at all (52%), although many consider the penalties to be harmful to society (41%), meaning that the opponents perceive the law even as a threat.  

Russians believe the penalties will have no negative impacts (29-31% of Zoomers and younger millennials) and consider them useless (47-54%). As to Older millennials and the Reform generation, 29-31% of them point out positive impacts (vs. 25% of total Russians and 13% of Zoomers).

Biological clock is ticking …

Most of Russians (55%) believe that introducing penalties for the propaganda of childfree lifestyles will have no influence on the birth rate in Russia. This opinion is very popular among those who oppose the restrictions (70%) and those who consider that the penalties are useless (74%).

Every fourth Russian (24%) supports the authors of the bill and are confident that this measure will increase the birth rate; on the contrary, a further 10% point out negative effects.  Different generations appeared quite unanimous on this issue.

All-Russian VCIOM-Sputnik telephone survey was conducted September 29, 2024. A total of 1,600 respondents aged 18 and older took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interview, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of September 29, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7481; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0149; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0864. Calculations are based on corporate standard https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

 ** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.