MOSCOW, 21 December 2023. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of an annual survey describing the feelings Russian have saying goodbye to the outgoing year and welcoming the new year.
Farewell to 2023!
The findings of a VCIOM survey conducted in December show that every second Russian is full of optimism saying goodbye to 2023 and welcoming 2024 (53%, +15 p.p. over the year), which is an all-time high since 2006. Every third respondent experiences neither emotional upheaval nor negative feelings on the eve of new Year (34%, −6 p.p. over the year), which is the minimum value since 2006. Ten percent report pessimistic expectations (11%, −9 p.p. over the year).
Index* for this indicator refreshed the record high and hit 66 p. (a 10-point increase over the year).
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What was the year like for families...
Most of Russians say the year has been rather successful and generally good for their families (57%), which is one of the highest readings over the period of measurement (since 2003 this share has been within 33-62%). The pandemic 2020 was the hardest year for Russians (for 33% it was good); every following year was seen as a better year (2021 — 45%; 2022 — 52%).
Four out of ten respondents say 2023 was difficult for them (41%, −25 p.p. compared to 2020); the share is higher among young respondents under 25 (52%). The index of personal results** has become positive in recent years and hit 16 points, showing a stable rise over the recent years (+49 points compared to 2020).
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…and for the country?
Over the twenty years the index describing the results for the country** has been primarily negative, except for 2006 and 2007, when it hit 13 and 37 points, respectively. According to Russians, 2020 (- 80 points). Over the recent three year this situation has been improving; today 26% of Russians say the year has been good for the country (vs 8% in 2020). The three-year growth is 40 points (2020 — −80 points, 2023 — −40 points). However, an overwhelming majority of respondents believe that 2023 has been a difficult year for Russia (66%).
As in 2022, the special military operation has become the major event of the year for Russians (2022 — 62%; 2023 — 22%). Economic developments come second: GDP growth, inflation, counteracting sanctions, rise in key interest rate et cetera (16%). Events related to V.Putin round out the top 3: the upcoming presidential election and the direct line (8%).
Hoping for the best!
Six out of ten Russians are confident that the next year will be a beneficial year for Russia (63%, +18 p.p. over the year), which is one of the highest indicators over the recent twenty years. A third of respondents are skeptical (33%, −18 p.p. over the year). The index of expectations on a national level *** is 30 points, which is a five-year high (2018 — 3 points; 2019 — 10 points; 2020 — 0 points; 2021 — 13 points; 2022 — −6 points).
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The most awaited events in 2024 are putting an end to the special military operation (45%) and presidential election (26%). A further 13% of respondents expect economic rise and higher living standards.
The best
According to the findings, V.Putin has become the politician of the year (55%); other popular political figures have been M.Mishustin (21%) and S.Lavrov (16%). Z. Prilepin is the writer of the year (5%). The list of athletes is headed by figure skaters, with R.Kostomarov ranking first (8%), and K.Valieva ranking second (5%).
On TV
Central television heads the rating of public trust in media. Channel One has been the most popular channel for the two consecutive years (46%). Russia-1 is ranked second (23%). Newsmagazine shows are the most watched shows in 2023. The most popular television programs are “60 minutes” (10%), and “Vecher s Vladimirom Solovyovym” (Evening with Vladimir Solovyov) as well as news shows in general (6%, each).
*Index describes an overall Russian perception of the outgoing year and hopes for the upcoming year. The Index is based on the question: “What feelings do you have bidding farewell to the outgoing year and welcoming the upcoming year?” The answer “good feeling, a sense of optimism” corresponds to the coefficient “0.9”; the answer “I feel neither emotional upheaval nor negative emotions”– “0.5”; “Likely in a bad mood, pessimistic expectations” – “0.1”. The Index is measured in points and can vary between 10 and 90. The higher the index value, the more optimistic Russians are bidding farewell to the outgoing year and welcoming the upcoming year.
** Indices of personal results and country-level results are based on the questions “What was the outgoing year like for you personally and your family?” and “What was the outgoing year like for Russia in general?” The Index is calculated as the difference of positive and negative assessments. The value of Index may vary between -100 and 100 points. The higher the index value, the more positive respondents are about the outgoing year.
*** Index of expectations on a national level is based on the question “What do you expect of the year ahead for Russia in general?” The Index is calculated as the difference of positive and negative assessments. The value may vary between -100 and 100 points. The higher the index value, the more positive respondents are about the future.
VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide telephone survey was conducted December 8 and December 16, 2023. A total of 1,600 Russians aged 18+ were surveyed. Survey method: telephone interviews, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
Key effectiveness indicators, survey of 8 December, 2023: cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7916; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0179; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0764.
Key effectiveness indicators, survey of 16 December, 2023: cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7680; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0184; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0988.
Calculations are based on corporate standards: https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/
* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.
** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.
** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.
What feeling do you have bidding farewell to 2023 and welcoming 2024? (close-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
Good mood, a sense of optimism | 33 | 40 | 29 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 41 | 41 | 45 | 48 | 39 | 42 | 43 | 41 | 38 | 53 |
I feel neither emotional upheaval nor negative emotions | 49 | 44 | 46 | 49 | 51 | 50 | 54 | 51 | 45 | 43 | 42 | 38 | 38 | 42 | 41 | 43 | 40 | 34 |
In rather a bad mood, pessimistic expectations | 16 | 8 | 20 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 21 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 20 | 11 |
Don’t know | 2 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Index* | 56 | 59 | 51 | 56 | 56 | 57 | 59 | 58 | 60 | 60 | 63 | 63 | 56 | 60 | 61 | 60 | 56 | 66 |
What feeling do you have bidding farewell to 2023 and welcoming 2024? (close-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | ||||||||
| Total | Men | Women | Ages 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-59 | 60 + |
Good mood, a sense of optimism | 53 | 49 | 56 | 52 | 50 | 49 | 53 | 57 |
I feel neither emotional upheaval nor negative emotions | 34 | 35 | 33 | 31 | 36 | 39 | 32 | 32 |
In rather a bad mood, pessimistic expectations | 11 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 8 |
Don’t know | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Index* | 66 | 63 | 68 | 64 | 64 | 65 | 65 | 68 |
What was the past year like for you personally and your family? (close-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
Very good | 6 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
Basically good | 49 | 39 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 49 | 38 | 42 | 53 | 50 | 46 | 54 | 45 | 44 | 48 | 50 | 47 | 29 | 40 | 47 | 48 |
Rather difficult | 37 | 43 | 39 | 33 | 30 | 35 | 45 | 44 | 35 | 39 | 41 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 29 | 28 | 33 | 36 | 38 | 30 | 27 |
Very bad, difficult | 7 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
Don’t know | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Index** | 11 | -13 | 3 | 20 | 27 | 9 | -14 | -5 | 17 | 11 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 9 | -33 | -8 | 7 | 16 |
What was the past year like for you personally and your family? (close-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | ||||||||
| Total | Men | Women | Ages 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-59 | 60 + |
Very good | 9 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 4 |
Basically good | 48 | 46 | 48 | 34 | 40 | 49 | 51 | 52 |
Rather difficult | 27 | 28 | 26 | 37 | 27 | 30 | 25 | 24 |
Very bad, difficult | 14 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
Don’t know | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
Index** | 16 | 16 | 14 | -6 | 10 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
What was the past year like for Russia in general? (close-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
Very good | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Basically good | 40 | 26 | 42 | 47 | 57 | 37 | 18 | 23 | 38 | 36 | 36 | 33 | 19 | 30 | 35 | 29 | 30 | 7 | 17 | 12 | 23 |
Rather difficult | 46 | 53 | 44 | 37 | 25 | 47 | 61 | 55 | 47 | 51 | 50 | 52 | 57 | 44 | 41 | 43 | 43 | 48 | 48 | 57 | 48 |
Very bad, difficult | 4 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 17 | 15 | 40 | 24 | 26 | 18 |
Don’t know | 5 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 8 |
Index** | -5 | -38 | -3 | 13 | 37 | -15 | -55 | -42 | -12 | -18 | -16 | -25 | -53 | -24 | -12 | -27 | -24 | -80 | -53 | -69 | -40 |
What was the past year like for Russia in general? (close-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | ||||||||
| Total | Men | Women | Ages 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-59 | 60 + |
Very good | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Basically good | 23 | 25 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 22 | 23 |
Rather difficult | 48 | 44 | 51 | 39 | 48 | 44 | 48 | 53 |
Very bad, difficult | 18 | 19 | 16 | 26 | 18 | 21 | 19 | 11 |
Don’t know | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
Index** | -40 | -34 | -44 | -38 | -41 | -37 | -42 | -38 |
In your opinion, what are three most important events of the outgoing year for Russia? (open-ended question, up to 3 answers, % of total respondents, answers that gained >2%) | |
War in Ukraine: Russian troops advancing / Ukraine’s counter-offensive failure / Russia’s successes | 22 |
Economic events: economic rise / growth in GDP / economic stabilization / support for small business / high inflation rate / increase in prices for foods, utility bills, fuel / rise in key interest rate / increase in mortgage rate / sanctions / counteracting sanctions / import substitution | 16 |
Events related to V.Putin: presidential election / Putin will be running / V.V.Putin direct line | 8 |
Domestic policy: development of the country/ sovereignty / law related to LGBT / migration policy / local election / disorder in the country / restrictive laws / authorities taking no action / no stability | 7 |
Foreign policy: Russia’s image is improving / BRICS / relations with African countries | 4 |
Prigozhin’s rebellion / Prigozhin’s death | 3 |
Social policy / child allowances / health care / education | 2 |
War in Israel | 2 |
Exhibition at VDNKh | 2 |
None | 0 |
Other | 2 |
Don’t know | 57 |
What do you expect for the upcoming year for Russia in general? (close-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
I think the upcoming year will be rather good for Russia | 13 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 21 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 22 |
I think that the upcoming year will be generally good | 48 | 37 | 49 | 53 | 52 | 30 | 42 | 43 | 46 | 51 | 48 | 44 | 37 | 44 | 48 | 37 | 37 | 34 | 39 | 32 | 41 |
It will be rather difficult | 29 | 41 | 30 | 22 | 17 | 48 | 35 | 29 | 31 | 30 | 33 | 35 | 34 | 21 | 25 | 40 | 38 | 40 | 35 | 44 | 28 |
I think it will be very bad | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
Don’t know | 9 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 4 |
Index*** | 31 | -2 | 25 | 44 | 52 | -16 | 12 | 18 | 20 | 26 | 20 | 13 | 15 | 43 | 42 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 13 | -6 | 30 |
What do you expect for the upcoming year for Russia in general? (close-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | ||||||||
| Total | Men | Women | Ages 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-59 | 60 + |
I think the upcoming year will be rather good for Russia | 22 | 22 | 22 | 27 | 23 | 19 | 21 | 22 |
I think that the upcoming year will be generally good | 41 | 37 | 44 | 32 | 40 | 42 | 40 | 43 |
It will be rather difficult | 28 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 29 | 29 |
I think it will be very bad | 5 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
Don’t know | 4 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
Index*** | 30 | 24 | 35 | 24 | 30 | 27 | 28 | 34 |
In your opinion, what landmark events are going to occur in 2024 in Russia? Several answers are possible (open-ended question, up to 3 answers, % of total respondents, answers that gained >2%) | |
End of war/SMO / peaceful treaty with Ukraine / military personnel returning home/the mobilized soldiers / victory in the SMO / battlefield successes | 45 |
Presidential election / election | 26 |
Rise/economic development / production, industry development / country’s development / everything will be fine in Russia / overcoming the crisis, stability/ higher salaries/pensions / higher living standard / lower prices / control over the prices and tariffs | 13 |
Fence-mending with other countries / lifting of sanctions /companies returning / borders opening / restoring trade | 4 |
Election of V.Putin / V.Putin will stay in power | 4 |
Change of power / another president will be elected | 2 |
None | 3 |
Other | 3 |
Don’t know | 29 |
In your opinion, what is the politician of the year in Russia? Up to 3 names can be mentioned (open-ended question, up to 3 answers, answers that gained >2%) | |
V.Putin | 55 |
M.Mishustin | 21 |
S.Lavrov | 16 |
S.Shoygu | 4 |
V.Zhirinovsky | 2 |
D.Medvedev | 2 |
V.Volodin | 2 |
S.Sobyanin | 2 |
A.Navalny[1] | 2 |
E.Nabiullina | 2 |
None | 1 |
Other | 27 |
Don’t know | 32 |
What is the writer of the year in Russia? Up to 3 names can be mentioned (open-ended question, up to 3 answers, answers that gained >1%) | |
Z.Prilepin | 5 |
A.Pushkin | 3 |
B.Akunin[2] | 2 |
D.Glukhovsky[3] | 1 |
V.Pelevin | 1 |
F.Dostoevsky | 1 |
M.Lermontov | 1 |
D.Bykov[4] | 1 |
S.Yesenin | 1 |
L.Tolstoy | 1 |
S.Mikhalkov | 1 |
M.Bulgakov | 1 |
None | 0 |
Other | 8 |
Don’t know | 79 |
In your opinion, what is the athlete of the year in Russia? Up to 3 names can be mentioned (open-ended question, up to 3 answers, answers that gained >2%) | |
R.Kostomarov | 8 |
K.Valieva | 5 |
A.Bolshunov | 2 |
A.Trusova | 2 |
E.Medvedeva | 2 |
A.Ovechkin | 2 |
None | 0 |
Other | 7 |
Don’t know | 72 |
What TV channel comes to your head first when you hear the phrase “the main national TV channel”? (open-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents, answers that gained >1%) | ||
| 2022 | 2023 |
Channel One | 50 | 46 |
Russia-1 | 23 | 23 |
Russia-24 | 4 | 6 |
NTV | 3 | 3 |
REN TV | 1 | 2 |
TNT | 1 | 1 |
Match TV | <1 | 1 |
Zvezda | 1 | 1 |
2х2 | <1 | 1 |
STS | <1 | 1 |
Karusel | 1 | 1 |
None | 5 | 3 |
Other | 3 | 6 |
Don’t know | 5 | 5 |
In your opinion, what is the best Russian TV show of the year? Up to 3 answers can be mentioned (open-ended question, up to 3 answers, % of total respondents, answers that gained >2%) | |
60 minutes / Skabeeva | 10 |
Solovyov / Vecher s Vladimirom Solovyovym/ Voskresny vecher | 6 |
News /news programs | 6 |
Vesti | 3 |
Mesto vstrechi / Norkin | 3 |
Vremya pokazhet | 3 |
Muzhskoe i zhenskoe | 2 |
Malakhov | 2 |
Pole chudes | 2 |
Bolshaya igra | 2 |
Vremya | 2 |
Pesni ot vsey dushi | 2 |
None | 0 |
Other | 11 |
Don’t know | 55 |
Before 2017, surveys were carried out using household face-to-face interviews (“Express” project); stratified multistage sample with quotas based on socio-demographic parameters, representative of the Russian population aged 18 and older according to the type of settlement, gender, age, education and federal district. Sample size: 1,600 respondents. Starting from 2017, surveys are based on the VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide telephone survey project. Survey method: telephone interviews, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey. Sample size: 1,600 respondents.
[1] Listed as an extremist and terrorist
[2] Listed as an extremist and terrorist
[3] Recognized as a foreign agent
[4] Recognized as a foreign agent