Germany was replaced with the USA as the global leader in terms of preparedness for the future.

MOSCOW, September 18, 2019. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) and Valdai Discussion Club present the G20 final rankings based on Future Readiness Index.

The Future Preparedness Index is targeted at analyzing on a regular basis the readiness of countries to face future challenges, their role in future scenarios, economic and political competitiveness, and capacities to develop different sectors and social infrastructure.

Future Preparedness Index is a joint project developed by VCIOM and the Valdai Club; it is designed to rank the first twenty countries and assess their potential to adapt to the future.

Twenty countries are evaluated across ten criteria. Economic situation: national wealth, workforce productivity, steady economic growth. Technological development: multipurpose digital technologies, advanced technologies, technological complexity in manufacturing. Quality of education:  availability of lifelong learning, percentage of university graduates, development of talents. Scientific development: contribution to global science, scientific breakthroughs, government policies oriented towards scientific development. Culture and communication: economic success of cultural products, global awareness about country’s cultural products, and their availability to the public. Quality of life: life expectancy, satisfaction with life, financial well-being. Natural resources and ecology: availability of the main resources, recycling, effective use of resources. Effective management:  effective administrative machine, informatization of public services, sustainability of institutions.  Country’s potential: military capabilities to repulse an attack of any potential enemy, police capacity to maintain order domestically, citizens’ confidence in personal safety. Global image: high international status, country’s global influence, global competitiveness. The index was first published in 2017.

The 2019 leader is the U.S.A. The country has the highest scores in four areas: education, science, administration system and international status. Germany is ranked second being the leader in economy and ecology. Great Britain is ranked third with the highest scores in culture and communications. The 2019 rating’s outsider is South Africa (vs Indonesia in 2017).

Russia holds 12^th ranking having improved its position by 0.05 scores since 2017. The country has the highest scores in sovereignty/security; the growth areas are predominantly economy, resources and ecology. Russia has also improved its position in education, administration system based on statistical data, culture and communications based on expert assessments, and society.

For the 2019 results and methods please follow the link or see the .PPT file.

The calculation of the Preparedness Index is multi-staged. The first stage is to detect the key areas that shape the development of the country (method: group expert discussions); a total number of 10 areas were singled out. The second stage is to define the key trends in those areas. The importance of a trend is determined by the extent to which it can change the future in the studied area (method: foresight technique for medium-range and long-range forecasts and a series of expert discussions). The third stage is operationalization of trends: selection of quantitative indicators which help to define if the country meets or does not meet a trend (method: collection of available s statistical data). The fourth stage deals with a survey among Russian and international experts: each expert is offered to score the country across a number indicators. For each score, an expert picks up several countries where the indicator’s value is the highest and several countries where it is the lowest. The fifth stage - index calculation - refers to aggregation of all the collected data into a single indicator. All quantitative statistical indicators are standardized and converted into direct or reverse scale depending on the   indicator meaning (positive or negative).  

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory.