Let us talk about labor and unemployment.
At present this topic is going to be one of the major. For instance, in October previous year to a question whether you talk to your colleagues and friends about unemployment approximately half of respondents answered: «Such conversations are taking place». Today it is 74%. That means that three quarters of Russians discuss the unemployment with their friends and relatives. This problem is very important for them personally not only in terms of "kitchen talks" but in terms of measuring the risks caused by the changes in labor market that threatens all of us. But these are only talks.
Now let us have a look at the assessment of what will happen to enterprises where our compatriots work. The first question in our study was as follows: "What is the possibility of layoffs in your enterprise in the next two or three months?" Only working Russians were asked this question. We should not be pleased with this trend. The most critical point was December when 55% of respondents said such layoffs were possible. Another 10% were confident that this would happen anyway. Only 19% reported that these layoffs were virtually impossible. In January the data look modest: though 15% are confident that layoffs would happen anyway, the respondents who think that layoffs are quite possible has decreased (37% against 55% in December), and 27% consider them possible but hardly to happen. This shows that, on the one hand, dynamism and negative emotions decreased, from the other hand, the share of those who expect redundancies not to happen has increased. That means that people are waiting for layoffs but not only them.
A new threat, which we have forgotten about for the recent five or four years, has appeared. This is delayed payment of salaries. For 13% of Russians this is more then threat, this is their reality, because they have already been experiencing this. 8% say that this will happen in the nearest time; 34% think this may happen, and only 15% think these delayed payments are practically impossible. That refers mainly to civil service employees, servicemen and budget employees.
That illustrates how private sector, which is characterized by high salaries and which benefits from the economic growth, in terms of financial crisis loses most of all. Meanwhile public sector, which is normally not prestigious and is characterized by lower salaries, becomes more privileged in times of economic crisis; this is due to the fact that public sector employees` salaries are protected and difficult to cut.
Now let us talk about reduction of salaries.
It is known that in recent five or seven years the wages in almost all sectors of economy has been rising and their growth rate has been outstripping productivity growth. That seriously impeded economic growth and had a bad influence on our entrepreneurs` moods. This is what they were taking about.
In a research conducted by VCIOM in 2007, we asked entrepreneurs to tell the main problem which impedes the development and their activity. The answer was not taxes, nor enforcement authorities; their answer was the deficit of qualified personnel at a reasonable price. Now it might be in the past. Our researches revealed that currently entrepreneurs actively reduce salaries, and in general people have recognized this. Now they know that the trend has changed and they should not expect any increase. The main option now is to preserve what we have.
What do we have? This is, on the one hand, the level of salary, on the other - the work itself, even with a lower salary. The figures we got are as follows: 14% of Russians said that their salaries or the salaries of the working members of their families have already been reduced, 9% expect it in the nearest time, and for 35% this is quite possible. Only 18% believe that salary reduction is impossible and is not going to be in the future.
As for the loss of job, we have the following data: in December 48% of respondents thought that they might lose their job in the nearest two or three months; that was the rush of panic. In January it was obvious that initial adaptation happens: 27% believes that the loss of job is quite possible, 35% say that such developments are possible, but hardly to happen. Only 26% consider that they are insured against unemployment; such people almost exclude the possibility to lose their work. But these are only expectations.
As for the facts, we asked the next question: are there working Russians who lost their job in recent two or three months? There is a dynamics here, but rather modest: in October 10% said that there are such kind of people and there are a lot of them, compared to December when 12% said the same, in January there were 14% of such respondents. This means that the possibility of layoffs in this purely information sector in autumn became reality now. Butfortunately, these layoffs are still not massive.
In October only 25% of Russians said that there were those who were dismissed among their relatives and friends; currently there are 36% of such respondents. Those who do not have dismissed friends or relatives are 44% now; they were one quarter more (62%) three months ago.
Suppose, we lost the job. What are we going to do? Can we find a new job, not any kind of job, but the equal one - according to our qualification, profession and with appropriate reward?
We have vivid dynamics here that shows the evolution of public views on labor market in recent months. If in October 26% of respondents said that in case they lose their job they can easily find equal one (that means that labor market was perfect for employees but not for employers) , then now everything has changed: only 10% think that they can easily find equal job if they lost one. However, the share of those who think that they will not be able to find equal job has doubled (8% in October, 17% now). The majority is right in the middle: 26% consider that they will find job anyway but they have to make some efforts to do that; 36% think that they will find job as well but it will take lots of efforts to do that.
There is another trend: in economic growth period we all got used to thinking that there has always been a very low labor mobility in Russia (people did not get used to move from one place to another, they escape undergoing retraining, they do not accept the work if it does not meet their salary requirements); and that was a fact. But crisis can change lots of things. It discovers new opportunities; one of them, according to our data, is labor mobility enhancement, which is one of the necessary conditions for economic growth, as economists say.
Our figures show that the share of those who would like to be self-employed or to be private entrepreneurs increased. Two years ago (in January 2007) not more than 2% of Russians were ready to work in this sphere in case they lose their job; now there are 14% of them. Though the difference is not so big, the share of potential private entrepreneurs has increased.
Unfortunately, this answer is not leading. There is much bigger increase in the share of those who prefer being hired, but at the same time they turn a blind eye to violations of labor law. In January 2007 the part of those who accepted unofficial work was only 14%, now it is doubled (27%). Those people are ready to refuse official employment and, as a result, their guaranteed pension, though they will keep their work as well as their earning.
Another alternative people are ready for is switching from full-time job to part-time job and casual earnings. In January 2007, 7% were ready for that, now the share has tripled (20%). 1% of respondents were ready to undergo retraining, now they are slightly more - 24%. 10% were acceptable to lower qualification or even no qualification work; now they are 16%. The share of those who were ready for low salary work was 7%, now it is 18%.
And finally, the moving: it is obvious that moving in Russia is hard due to backwardness of the housing market and rental housing. This is why it is very hard to move to different location in Russia. However, even under these conditions the part of Russians how are ready to change their residence has grown by the third: 8% in 2007 compared to 12% now.
Which shares are less? It is those who are not ready to make sacrifices, any changes for work: there were 17% in January 2007, 21% in March 2008 (less than a year ago, but in totally different economic circumstances), and now they are only 10%. This is a case in point of how crisis changes public views about what is possible and what is acceptable for people.
But there is also something that crisis cannot change. This is what shows the rating of satisfaction with professionwhich we made twice - in summer and in winter 2008. In Both times we interviewed four thousand of working Russians who were asked the same question: are they satisfied with their current job? Of course, both studies were conducted in totally different economic situations: pre-crisis growth period and the period of recession and abrupt labor market changes. We could expect the slump in satisfaction with work, but it did not happen.
There is a reverse tendency: those who managed to keep their work now are satisfied with it more then earlier. First of all, it deals with Russians` strictness which went down. When choosing a job earlier most of us priced location, and social package, now it is less important then preserving the job itself. This means that the value of job itself increased.
That is why most of Russians did not become less satisfied with profession; on the contrary, there are those who are more satisfied. For instance, the satisfaction index of lawyers and solicitors was 62, and reached 80 out of 100. Lawyers led top of the rating of satisfaction with profession. Cashiers and accountants and, strangely enough, private entrepreneurs became more satisfied. The financiers` rating remained the same - 75. As for bank clerks, there is a slight decline - from 68 to 64. In general, the value of work is growing up, and it is much more important for people not to lose it at present time then ever before.