MOSCOW, March 04, 2008 Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents information on why Russian voters gave their preference to Dmitry Medvedev in the presidential elections on March 2.It would not be right to explain D. Medvedev’s victory by a high level of his informational presence: he was even known to a smaller share of Russians in January - February 2008 than other presidential contenders participating in the presidential elections, such as V. Zhirinovsky and G. Zyuganov. Thus, 92% of respondents were informed of V. Zhirinovsky, 84% knew about G. Zyuganov, and 78% were informed of D. Medvedev. 5%, 13% and 17% respectively have only heard these politicians’ names.The image of public trust that respondents have towards these three presidential contenders looks a bit differently. If compared with the data obtained in 2006, public trust in V. Zhirinovsky and G. Zyuganov has decreased (from 26% to 19% and from 25% down to 20% respectively), whereas mistrust to them has grown (from 59% up to 69% and from 61% up to 67%).The share of Russians who trust D. Medvedev has increased at the same time (from 55% up to 64%), and the number of those not trusting him has decreased (from 21% down to 13%).V. Zhirinovsky and G. Zyuganov used to cause negative emotions in respondents much more often, than positive ones at the beginning of the year; on the contrary, respondents mainly connect positive emotions with D. Medvedev. The most typical feeling associated with the leader of LDPR, is mistrust (29%); he also caused antipathy (14%), condemnation (10%) or scepticism (8%). Among positive emotions connected with him, respondents mentioned sympathy and respect (11% each), hope (7%). 27% of respondents spoke of their "indifference" to this politician. If compared to the data obtained in October 2006, this politician’s negative perception has strengthened in the beginning of 2008. Among positive emotions that the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation inspires are respect (13%) and hope (8%); respondents mention mistrust (23%), antipathy (8%) and scepticism (7%) among negative ones. 41% indicated their "indifference" towards him. In comparison with the data obtained in November 2006, the feelings of mistrust (from 17% up to 23 %) and indifference (from 31% up to 41%) that respondents feel have increased, whereas condemnation, on the contrary, has decreased (from 10% down to 2%). In the period of time from October 2006 till the beginning of 2008, the share of those who started to primarily associate hope (from 26% up to 43%), sympathy, respect (from 13-15% up to 21%) and trust (about 2% up to 19%) with D. Medvedev has increased. The share of respondents indifferent to him has reduced (from 26% down to 13%). The first deputy Prime Minister began to cause negative emotions, such as mistrust (5%), scepticism (3%), disappointment, antipathy, condemnation (1% for each option) less often. In the beginning of the year the majority of respondents (77%) assumed that D. Medvedev will win the presidential elections on March 2, 2008. This includes 58% who believed that it will be a confident victory and 19% who expected him to win but only after a hard struggle. No more than 1% thought that he would lose the elections.At the same time, the majority of Russians sceptically treated the victory chances that V. Zhirinovsky and G.Zyuganov had to win the elections. 57% and 61% respectively expected these two politicians to lose the elections. 32% and 27% were not sure of their victory. No more than 2-3% of respondents assumed that they will win after a hard political struggle.LDPR voters estimated their leader’s chances the most optimistically: 27% of them believed that he will win on March 2; however, even the majority of this party’s electorate did not really expect him to win. 22% of KPRF supporters believed in G. Zyuganov’s victory, 38% doubted it, but still did not think of it as impossible either, and 21% thought that he would lose. At the same time, the majority of respondents supporting the Russia’s leading political parties claimed that D. Medvedev would win the elections. “Unified Russia” and “Fair Russia” voters were surer of the fact (84% and 78%) than LDPR and KPRF supporters (68% and 64% respectively).The initiative All-Russia opinion poll was conducted by VCIOM on January 12-13 and 26-27, as well as on February 16-17, 2008. 1600 respondents were interviewed each time in 153 population areas of 46 regions of Russia. The statistical error does not exceed 3.4%.
How well do you know..? | ||||||
| Vladimir Zhirinovsky | Gennady Zyuganov | Dmitry Medvedev | |||
| 2006 | 2008 | 2006 | 2008 | 2006 | 2008 |
I know him quite well, I follow his political activity | 28 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 20 | 17 |
I know him, but do not follow his political activity | 60 | 77 | 68 | 70 | 46 | 61 |
I have only heard this politician’s name | 9 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 25 | 17 |
It is the first time that I hear this last name | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
Hard to say | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
To what extent do you or do you not trust?… | ||||||
| Vladimir Zhirinovsky | Gennady Zyuganov | Dmitry Medvedev | |||
| 2006 | 2008 | 2006 | 2008 | 2006 | 2008 |
I totally trust him | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 15 |
I would rather trust him | 19 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 43 | 49 |
I would rather not trust him | 37 | 29 | 36 | 29 | 15 | 8 |
I do not trust him at all | 22 | 40 | 25 | 38 | 6 | 5 |
I do not know a politician like that | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Hard to say | 15 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 20 |
What feelings does ... inspire in you? (Up to two options) | ||||||
| Vladimir Zhirinovsky | Gennady Zyuganov | Dmitry Medvedev | |||
| 2006 | 2008 | 2006 | 2008 | 2006 | 2008 |
Admiration | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Hope | 6 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 26 | 43 |
Sympathy | 8 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 21 |
Respect | 8 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 21 |
Trust | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 19 |
Love | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
Positive feelings, total | 30 | 36 | 29 | 31 | 65 | 107 |
Disappointment | 6 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
Distrust | 16 | 29 | 17 | 23 | 5 | 5 |
Antipathy | 13 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
Condemnation | 7 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Scepticism | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 3 |
Hate | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
Negative feelings, total | 51 | 66 | 52 | 47 | 11 | 11 |
Indifference | 23 | 27 | 31 | 41 | 26 | 13 |
Hard to say | 13 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 17 | 11 |
How would you estimate …’s chances at the presidential elections 2008? | |||
| Vladimir Zhirinovsky | GennadyZyuganov | Dmitry Medvedev |
He will win the elections with confidence, there will be no real political struggle | <1 | <1 | 58 |
He will win the elections, but only after a hard struggle | 2 | 3 | 19 |
I am not sure that he will win in the elections | 32 | 27 | 5 |
He is more likely to lose in the elections | 57 | 61 | 1 |
Hard to say | 8 | 9 | 18 |
How would you estimate …’s chances at the presidential elections 2008? | |||||
| Total respondents | Political paty supporters | |||
„UnifiedRussia“ | KPRF | LDPR | „Fair Russia“ | ||
Vladimir Zhirinovsky |
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He will win the elections with confidence, there will be no real political struggle | <1 | 0 | – | 4 | – |
He will win the elections, but only after a hard struggle | 2 | 2 | – | 23 | – |
I am not sure that he will win in the elections | 32 | 31 | 24 | 52 | 46 |
He is more likely to lose in the elections | 57 | 61 | 68 | 7 | 49 |
Hard to say | 8 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 5 |
Gennady Zyuganov |
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He will win the elections with confidence, there will be no real political struggle | <1 | – | 1 | – | – |
He will win the elections, but only after a hard struggle | 3 | 1 | 21 | – | 2 |
I am not sure that he will win in the elections | 27 | 27 | 38 | 16 | 26 |
He is more likely to lose in the elections | 61 | 67 | 21 | 77 | 67 |
Hard to say | 9 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 5 |
Dmitry Medvedev |
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He will win the elections with confidence, there will be no real political struggle | 58 | 64 | 48 | 45 | 58 |
He will win the elections, but only after a hard struggle | 19 | 20 | 16 | 23 | 20 |
I am not sure that he will win in the elections | 5 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 7 |
He is more likely to lose in the elections | 1 | 0 | – | 2 | – |
Hard to say | 18 | 14 | 23 | 16 | 14 |