Results of our studies

MOSCOW, March 04, 2008 Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents information on why Russian voters gave their preference to Dmitry Medvedev in the presidential elections on March 2.It would not be right to explain D. Medvedev’s victory by a high level of his informational presence: he was even known to a smaller share of Russians in January - February 2008 than other presidential contenders participating in the presidential elections, such as V. Zhirinovsky and G. Zyuganov. Thus, 92% of respondents were informed of V. Zhirinovsky, 84% knew about G. Zyuganov, and 78% were informed of D. Medvedev. 5%, 13% and 17% respectively have only heard these politicians’ names.The image of public trust that respondents have towards these three presidential contenders looks a bit differently. If compared with the data obtained in 2006, public trust in V. Zhirinovsky and G. Zyuganov has decreased (from 26% to 19% and from 25% down to 20% respectively), whereas mistrust to them has grown (from 59% up to 69% and from 61% up to 67%).The share of Russians who trust D. Medvedev has increased at the same time (from 55% up to 64%), and the number of those not trusting him has decreased (from 21% down to 13%).V. Zhirinovsky and G. Zyuganov used to cause negative emotions in respondents much more often, than positive ones at the beginning of the year; on the contrary, respondents mainly connect positive emotions with D. Medvedev. The most typical feeling associated with the leader of LDPR, is mistrust (29%); he also caused antipathy (14%), condemnation (10%) or scepticism (8%). Among positive emotions connected with him, respondents mentioned sympathy and respect (11% each), hope (7%). 27% of respondents spoke of their "indifference" to this politician. If compared to the data obtained in October 2006, this politician’s negative perception has strengthened in the beginning of 2008.  Among positive emotions that the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation inspires are respect (13%) and hope (8%); respondents mention mistrust (23%), antipathy (8%) and scepticism (7%) among negative ones. 41% indicated their "indifference" towards him. In comparison with the data obtained in November 2006, the feelings of mistrust (from 17% up to 23 %) and indifference (from 31% up to 41%) that respondents feel have increased, whereas condemnation, on the contrary, has decreased (from 10% down to 2%). In the period of time from October 2006 till the beginning of 2008, the share of those who started to primarily associate hope (from 26% up to 43%), sympathy, respect (from 13-15% up to 21%) and trust (about 2% up to 19%)  with D. Medvedev has increased. The share of respondents indifferent to him has reduced (from 26% down to 13%). The first deputy Prime Minister began to cause negative emotions, such as mistrust (5%), scepticism (3%), disappointment, antipathy, condemnation (1% for each option) less often.  In the beginning of the year the majority of respondents (77%) assumed that D. Medvedev will win the presidential elections on March 2, 2008. This includes 58% who believed that it will be a confident victory and 19% who expected him to win but only after a hard struggle. No more than 1% thought that he would lose the elections.At the same time, the majority of Russians sceptically treated the victory chances that V. Zhirinovsky and G.Zyuganov had to win the elections. 57% and 61% respectively expected these two politicians to lose the elections. 32% and 27% were not sure of their victory. No more than 2-3% of respondents assumed that they will win after a hard political struggle.LDPR voters estimated their leader’s chances the most optimistically: 27% of them believed that he will win on March 2; however, even the majority of this party’s electorate did not really expect him to win. 22% of KPRF supporters believed in G. Zyuganov’s victory, 38% doubted it, but still did not think of it as impossible either, and 21% thought that he would lose. At the same time, the majority of respondents supporting the Russia’s leading political parties claimed that D. Medvedev would win the elections. “Unified Russia” and “Fair Russia” voters were surer of the fact (84% and 78%) than LDPR and KPRF supporters (68% and 64% respectively).The initiative All-Russia opinion poll was conducted by VCIOM on January 12-13 and 26-27, as well as on February 16-17, 2008. 1600 respondents were interviewed each time in 153 population areas of 46 regions of Russia. The statistical error does not exceed 3.4%.  

How well do you know..?

 

Vladimir Zhirinovsky

Gennady Zyuganov

Dmitry Medvedev

 

2006

2008

2006

2008

2006

2008

I know him quite well, I follow his political activity

28

15

16

14

20

17

I know him, but do not follow his political activity

60

77

68

70

46

61

I have only heard this politician’s name

9

5

13

13

25

17

It is the first time that I hear this last name

1

0

1

1

5

2

Hard to say

2

3

2

2

4

3

To what extent do you or do you not trust?…

 

Vladimir Zhirinovsky

Gennady Zyuganov

Dmitry Medvedev

 

2006

2008

2006

2008

2006

2008

I totally trust him

7

3

6

6

12

15

I would rather trust him

19

16

19

14

43

49

I would rather not trust him

37

29

36

29

15

8

I do not trust him at all

22

40

25

38

6

5

I do not know a politician like that

0

0

1

2

3

3

Hard to say

15

12

13

11

21

20

What feelings does ... inspire in you? (Up to two options)

 

Vladimir Zhirinovsky

Gennady Zyuganov

Dmitry Medvedev

 

2006

2008

2006

2008

2006

2008

Admiration

3

3

2

1

2

3

Hope

6

7

9

8

26

43

Sympathy

8

11

4

4

13

21

Respect

8

11

10

13

15

21

Trust

5

4

4

5

9

19

Love

<1

<1

<1

<1

<1

<1

Positive feelings, total

30

36

29

31

65

107

Disappointment

6

4

10

6

2

1

Distrust

16

29

17

23

5

5

Antipathy

13

14

10

8

1

1

Condemnation

7

10

10

2

1

1

Scepticism

8

8

4

7

2

3

Hate

1

1

1

1

<1

<1

Negative feelings, total

51

66

52

47

11

11

Indifference

23

27

31

41

26

13

Hard to say

13

7

12

10

17

11

How would you estimate …’s chances at the presidential elections 2008?

 

Vladimir Zhirinovsky

GennadyZyuganov

Dmitry Medvedev

He will win the elections with confidence, there will be no real political struggle

<1

<1

58

He will win the elections, but only after a hard struggle

2

3

19

I am not sure that he will win in the elections

32

27

5

He is more likely to lose in the elections

57

61

1

Hard to say

8

9

18

How would you estimate …’s chances at the presidential elections 2008?

 

Total respondents

Political paty supporters

„UnifiedRussia

KPRF

LDPR

„Fair Russia

Vladimir Zhirinovsky

 

 

 

 

 

He will win the elections with confidence, there will be no real political struggle

<1

0

4

He will win the elections, but only after a hard struggle

2

2

23

I am not sure that he will win in the elections

32

31

24

52

46

He is more likely to lose in the elections

57

61

68

7

49

Hard to say

8

6

8

14

5

Gennady Zyuganov

 

 

 

 

 

He will win the elections with confidence, there will be no real political struggle

<1

1

He will win the elections, but only after a hard struggle

3

1

21

2

I am not sure that he will win in the elections

27

27

38

16

26

He is more likely to lose in the elections

61

67

21

77

67

Hard to say

9

5

19

7

5

Dmitry Medvedev

 

 

 

 

 

He will win the elections with confidence, there will be no real political struggle

58

64

48

45

58

He will win the elections, but only after a hard struggle

19

20

16

23

20

I am not sure that he will win in the elections

5

2

14

15

7

He is more likely to lose in the elections

1

0

2

Hard to say

18

14

23

16

14


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