Results of our studies

Within the framework of the VIII Gaidar Forum-2017 "Russia and the World" a new joint project of VCIOM and Valdai Club "Future preparedness index" was presented.

Moscow, 2017 The Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM), together with the International Debating Club "Valday", present a study on the role of world powers in possible scenarios for the future. 

There are many different ratings and indicators in the world today — indicators of economic development, institutions, democracy and much more. They all have one important limitation: Development, understood as simple quantitative growth, does not in itself result in a qualitative transition from one state to another. The image of the future includes technological breakthroughs, transformations of culture, changes in social relations, new systems of governance and other areas where changes can be decisive for our society in 15-20 years' perspective.

The objective of the project is to regularly review the readiness of countries to respond to the challenges of the future, their role in future scenarios, the competitiveness of a range of economic, political criteria, the development of industries and social infrastructure, the place of Russia in the ranking of world leaders. A pool of international experts will be formed in the near future to assess the 50 countries of the world for each of the proposed parameters.

Among the criteria for assessing states: The state of the economy is the volume of national wealth (all the economic assets of the state), labour productivity and sustainable economic growth. Technological sophistication-the availability of versatile digital technologies, advanced technologies, and the technological complexity of production. The quality of education is its lifelong accessibility, the proportion of people with higher education, and the development and realization of talents. The development of science is a contribution to world science, scientific breakthroughs, priority in the development of science and research in governmental policy. Culture and communication are the economic success of cultural products, their recognizability in the world and their accessibility to the public. Quality of life-life expectancy, life satisfaction, material situation. Natural resources and ecology-access to basic resources, recycling of waste, efficient use of resources. Efficiency of governance-efficiency of administrative apparatus, informatization of public services, sustainability of institutions. The capacity of States to hold off the attack of any potential adversary, the ability of police structures to maintain law and order within the state, and citizens ' confidence in personal security. The position on the world stage is a high international status, a country's credibility and global competitiveness.

You can download the presentation "Future preparedness index" here.

The study is commented by the Director of scientific work of club "Valday", editor-in-chief of the  "Russia in Global politics" magazine Fyodor Lukyanov: "The world is changing very quickly, the quantitative changes accumulated since the end of the twentieth century have been transformed into qualitative change." On the one hand, the socio-economic palette is being transformed and, on the other, new breakthroughs in technology serve at least a powerful catalyst for change. All of this has a direct impact on political relations, but the impact is a non-linear and very complex, the task is trying to identify the resultant of these changes and to understand what characteristics are required by contemporary  States in order to respond adequately to new challenges. So far this comprehensive assessment has not been made, and we felt that this gap needs to be filled. The challenge is to bring together specialists from different fields: Sociologists, technology experts, economists, political scientists and the academics to make a comprehensive assessment. "For our part, we will make sure that the study is thorough and serious, and that it makes us think." 

According to the General Director of VCIOM Valery Fedorov, "Today's leaders can waste their time of power, and" middle-sort" or even outsiders-are not visible to others to capture leadership positions in building the future." But what's use of wasting time and energy on what you don't need tomorrow, while ignoring the need to prepare for what's going to happen tomorrow? We want to give the heads of States and the intellectual elites of various nations a self-assessment material like that was Doing business ranking for economic leaders in due time. Thanks to our work, they will be able to understand the need to strengthen where to make a breakthrough, where to hold positions in the international competition for the right to determine the future of the world. We have decided to measure not TODAY'S  strength and power of States and nations, but their  CAPABILITY to adapt to the revolutionary changes in technology, communications, social organization and economic forces that are taking place right now and will obviously grow even stronger. Our Mission: "To create a map of the efforts of States and nations in their own development to trends and prospects for global changes."

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