The method to forecast elections by use of social media has proved itself by the example of Venezuela: as expected, Madura won 50.7 % of votes.
MOSCOW, April 15, 2013. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM), Vox Populi Public Opinion Research Service and PalitrumLab Company present the results of the study devoted to forecasting the outcome of the Venezuelan elections.
According to the forecast conducted by use of social media data dated April 11, the winner should be Nikolas Maduro who was expected to win 50.7% of votes. According to the research, his rival Henrique Capriles was gaining 48.8% of votes.
The forecast totally coincided with the official election results: according to preliminary calculations made on April 15, Nikolas Maduro got 50.7% of votes, and Henrique Capriles got 49.1%.
Thus, the project proved the effectiveness of the use of social media to forecast elections. In the near term it is planned to apply this tool to Russian elections, assessments of the performance of regional and federal authorities, and international researches.
The initiative Russian opinion polls were conducted from March 23 to April 14, 2013. The forecast is based on Venezuelan social media data and made according to a technique designed and tested in France and the U.S. A total of 6 378 390 posts and 827 385 authors gathered on April 11 were analyzed.
| April 11th Forecast | Preliminary official election results |
Nikolas Maduro | 50.7% | 50.7% |
Henrique Capriles | 48.8% | 49.1% |
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!