The level of awareness about the United Russia primaries is high; the idea of conducting preliminary intra-party vote is strongly supported.

MOSCOW, May 21, 2016.  Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) in cooperation with the Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (ISEPR Foundation) present the data of public opinion survey preceding the United Russia primaries.

Specific research methodology  

Survey tools including two stages were designed to measure the attitudes of respondents toward preliminary vote. The first stage aimed at revealing the public awareness about the forthcoming elections and respondent’s desire to take part in the vote. At the second stage, the respondents who announced their desire to take part in the vote were asked questions about their perceptions of the candidates to define candidate’s popularity levels, level of positive and negative perceptions and respondent’s readiness to cast the vote for this or that candidate in the primaries.

Electoral ratings of the primary election candidates are based on the responses of those respondents who announced their desire to participate in the primaries. However, as in the general elections, the description of the voting turnout may be different from the one of the public opinion polls. This is why on May 22th any candidate will strive to translate his/her support into actual votes during the preliminary vote.  Besides that, in the primaries the voters can cast their votes for several candidates, whereas during survey they can vote for only one candidate.

Common trends

The share of the well-informed respondents (those who correctly name the data of the preliminary vote and the goal of primaries) almost corresponds to the party’s goals related to the percentage of the active voters during the primaries (8%-15%; earlier the party planned to print ballots for 10-15% of voters). It means that one week before the preliminary vote the party managed to form the same number of well-informed voters that was planned at the design stage.

Those who are highly informed about the primaries (32% know exactly what the primaries are about; 36% are aware of the data of the primaries) are respondents from Dmitrovsky district of the Moscow region, where the election campaign is head by such “giant” as I. Rodnina and famous local politician B.  Nadezhdin.

The percentages of the well-informed respondents are also high in Odintsovsky district of the Moscow region (24%) and Arsenievsky district of the Primorsky krai (30%) which is distinct in its competitive electoral campaign.  

In these and similar districts where intense campaign and preliminary election race are important, the levels of voting turnout may be higher than the regional or national average.

The percentage of positive assessments of the very idea of the open primaries as a preliminary selection of candidates of different parties lies within the interval of 35-45% (including those who are not going to participate in the United Russia primaries). On the contrary, the percentage of the negative perceptions is low.  

This data as well as the focus group data obtained from different regions show that the society requires more transparency, competitiveness and public disclosure of information related to the process of nomination of party candidates for elections at different levels. Primaries are supported by the candidates of all political parties including the Communist party of the Russian Federation. For instance, in the Shelekhovsky electoral district #95 (Irkutsk region headed by the communist governor) 34% of the CPRF adherents perceive positively the idea to conduct primaries; only 14% have negative perceptions. On the contrary, the CPRF position is weak in Karelia where the idea of primaries was supported by 46% of communists.

Data across districts and regions

Irkutsk region

According to expert and mass media assessments, the primary campaign in the Shelekhovsky electoral district #95 became one of the most intense ones among four districts of the Irkutsk region after Timur Sagdeev, a deputy of the Legislative Assembly, launched his information campaign against State Duma deputy Sergey Ten.

At the same time, the surveys show that attacking the competitor did not help Timur Sagdeev to gain support of his potential voters. On the eve of May 22, Ten is unconditional leader of the district primaries; his electoral rating is 43%. Thirty-four percent of voters trust him; only 3% distrust him.  

Sagdeev is less popular among the electorate of the district (only 35% of popularity against Ten’s 70%); his candidature is supported by 10% of respondents who are willing to attend the elections.

Kaliningrad region

Primaries in the single-seat electoral district #97 are considered as one of the most competitive and unpredictable, with candidates having equal chances to win. Andrey Kolesnik, State Duma deputy, is approved by 21% of those who are willing to take part in the elections. City Council deputy Andrey Pyatikop (known for the most high profile and quite scandalous campaign) is supported by 18%. The former vice-governor Evgeny Morozov is chosen by only 15%.  

However, Andrey Kolesnik is also dominant in a struggle to head the regional list of the United Russia party.

A new leader was found in the Central single-member electoral district #98 - vice-prime minister of the regional government Aleksey Silanov (30% potential primaries’ voters). His closest rival Sergey Donskikh, Kaliningrad City Council deputy and “BaltAvtoLain” Company General Director, is supported by only 10%. Andrey Gorokhov, the founder of the “Infamed” Company and Kaliningrad regional Duma deputy, is chosen by 7%.

Moscow region

Respondents of the Dmitrovsky single-member electoral district are highly informed about the primaries (32% know what these elections are about; 36% know the date). The political campaign is headed by strong leaders such as I. Rodnina and B. Nadezhdin.  Higher voter participation (compared to the regional and nationwide average) may be expected in this district.

Irina Rodnina is unconditional front-runner of the primaries as well as general elections. Supported by 40% of potential primaries’ voters she has high level of trust (55%), and she is ahead of her rivals Boris Nadezhdin (12%), Moscow City Duma deputy, Andrey Kosygin (8%), Moscow River Shipping Company Senior Executive, and Tatiana Aratova (5%), Moscow Basketball Centre General Director.

Nadezhdin could be a promising candidate if there was not such a popular rival as Rodnina is. His approval rating is 26%; 46% of active voters know about him. His oppositional background also acts against him. Only 7% of those who are going to attend United Russia primaries would support Nadezhdin (51% support Rodnina). Those who like him most are “A Just Russia” party electorate (30%).

Stavropol krai

The most influential and respectable list of candidates is in the Kavminvodsky single-member electoral district #67; three current State Duma deputies are fighting at the same time.

But the outcome is obvious; the most popular candidate has been in office for the whole term of convocation. Olga Kazakova’s rating is 27%; her campaign has been mentioned by most of the voters.  

Kazakova certainly have much more supporters than State Duma deputy Yury Vasiliev (10%). Another State Duma deputy Mikhail Markelov shares his fourth and fifth seats with Andrey Zadkov, Essentuki City Duma chairman (3%, for each candidate). They are both outstripped by Stavropolsky krai Duma deputy Aleksandr Sharabok (8%). It is Sharabok’s campaign that is second to Kazakova’s activities: his campaign materials are mentioned by 9% of respondents.

Karelia

In Karelia, where there are several strong candidates for the primaries at a time, the situation is close to the one in the Dmitrovsky district of the Moscow region.

Valentina Pivnenko, State Duma deputy and regional front-runner, succeeded in her referendum-type campaign and has been sttruggling hard to be nominated the United Russia candidate (39%). Elissan Shandalovich, respected doctor and Legislative Assembly deputy, is supported by 18%. The remainder (Evgenia Medvedeva, Olympic champion Legislative Assembly deputy; Larisa Zhdanova, director of State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company; Anna Lopatkina, All-Russia People’s Front Executive Board director) gain 4% to 6% approvals.

Remarkably, due to the number of voters and the United Russia party rating, the Karelia region may not pass the United Russia party-list threshold. This is why the candidates have to count only on single-member district campaign.

Primorsky krai

The survey results in the Vladivostok single-member electoral district #62 proved the importance of the “dark horse candidate» among those social activists which were not considered as successful candidates in the beginning.  Originally, the front-runners were Sergey Sopchuk, Legislative Assembly deputy, and Konstantin Bogdanenko, “Opora Rossii” regional leader and entrepreneur.

Sopchuk is really popular among potential primaries’ voters (22%). His only heavy rival is a “social” candidate Irina Medvedeva, head of Primorsky krai Council of Parents of Many Children (17%; 22% of United Russia supporters). Konstantin Bogdanenko is lagging behind with 13% of respondents who are ready to attend primaries and vote for him.

In the Primorsky krai, the United Russia electorate’s demand for the renewal may also be seen through the distribution of approvals between the candidates. Viktor Pinskoy, State Duma deputy, is popular among 5% of potential participants of the primaries. Elmira Glubokovskaya is supported by 4%. Those who are more popular than Pinskoy are “social” candidate Efim Zvenyatsky, artistic director of Primorsky Drama Theatre, (10% of respondents; the candidate is not actively campaigning) and Konstantin Bogdanenko, “leader of “Opora Rossii”, (6%). At the same time, the outcome of the struggle is not clear because as much as 55% of potential participants of the primaries remain undecided.

Saint-Petersburg

Compared to other regions included in the survey, St. Petersrug voters are less interested to take part in the primaries; it is true even for those who live in the districts with most competitive candidates (Western single-member electoral district #212). Only 9% managed to correctly name the date of the preliminary vote (up to 15% and more in other regions). Only 16% seem to take part in the primaries; at least 7% will definitely take part.

Hence, the outcome of the primary election in the Western electoral district #212 will depend on the ability of both candidates - Sergey Vostretsov (supported by 9% of potential primaries’ voters) and Maria Maksakova-Igenbergs (10%) – to mobilize their core adherents.  According to experts, Vostretsov has more chances: he has been active since autumn placing an emphasis on face-to-face contacts with electorate. Compared to his rivals, he is more popular among the United Russia adherents willing to participate in the primaries (15%). The primaries’ “dark horse”, according to the survey, is a socially-oriented candidate Konstantin Tkhostov, Director of the Vocational School #369; lacking active electoral campaign he has managed to gain 8% of approvals.

Methodology

The initiative VCIOM opinion poll is conducted May 11-15, 2016; the sample size is 1000 respondents; for each voting district the sample is representative of Russian population aged 18 and over according to sex, age, education, and type of settlement.

The survey method in voting districts # 118 (Moscow region), 122 (Moscow region), 212 (Saint-Petersburg) is community-based formalized face-to-face interviews.

The survey was conducted with multi-stage stratified sample based on general rule of walking and quotas at the final selection stage.  The margin of error (taking into account the design effect) with 95% confidence interval does not exceed 3.5%. Apart from the margin of error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the field work should be taken into account.

The survey in voting districts #17 (Republic of Karelia) and #97 (Kaliningrad region) is carried out via landline and mobile phones, using stratified dual-frame random sample. The telephone database is based on the list of telephone numbers operating in Russia.  The data are weighted to represent socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error with 95% confidence interval does not exceed 3.5%. Apart from the margin of error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the field work should be taken into account.

The survey method in voting districts #62 (Primorsky krai), #64 (Primorsky krai), #67 (Stavropol krai), #95 (Irkutsk region) and #98 (Kaliningrad region) is combined: 50% of respondents are surveyed through community-based formalized face-to-face interviews; 50% - through stratified dual-frame random sample of landline and mobiles phone numbers.

Note: Using materials from the websites www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory.