Terrorist threat is growing against the aggravation of the situation in Syria.

MOSCOW, October 23, 2015. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the data of the survey describing how many Russians are afraid of being the victims of terrorist attacks; how Russians assess the authorities’ capabilities to protect them; what poses a threat to Russia today.

Today the Terrorist Anxiety Index is assessed higher than in the end of 2014 (41 against 36 points), however this figure is lower than in the previous year. For the time being, 65% of Russians fear of being victims of terrorist attacks (58% in the end of the previous year). Every seventh (16%) is confident than nothing threatens him/her and his/her relatives. Remarkably, the indicator based on the answers of those respondents who keep track of the situation in Syria is much higher than the one based on the answers of those who are not informed about the situation in Syria (44 against 34 points). The indicator is also higher than a sample average among women and residents of million cities.   

However, both terrorist fears and Russian confidence in the ability of the authorities to protect the population against terrorist threat has grown against the Syrian conflict. The index has gained 15 points since the end of 2014 and reached a new high, 60 points. More than three-quarter of Russians (77%) do not doubt that the Russian leadership is capable of providing security against terrorists (68% in September 2014). They are opposed by 18% of respondents (basically, those who disapprove of the work of the president, 49%).

Besides that, over the recent years most of respondents have highly assessed the effectiveness of the counter-terrorism measures. The share of respondents who mark positive changes in efforts to counteract terrorism and to provide security to the civilians has been above 40% since 2012 (except for January 2014, when the survey was conducted after the Volgograd terrorist attack). It reached a historical maximum of 58-57% in September 2014 and October 2015. Interestingly, respondents who are informed about the Syrian conflict (74%) more often mention improvements in fight against corruption than an average Russian (57%).   More than a quarter of Russians (29%) say that no changes have been made over a year; only 6% mark negative changes.

According to the recent data, the main source of the terrorist threat comes from the ISIL (23%), which was not recorded before. Fears concerning the Middle East countries have also grown (from 2% to 12%). Anxiety about the U.S. terrorist attacks has gone down (from 22% in September 2014 to 14% in October 2015). Fewer Russians are afraid of radical Islamists (decrease from 13% to 3%). Caucasus and Chechnya threats are rarely mentioned (3% and 1%). Three percent expect terrorist attacks to be organized by anyone. The number of those who believe that nothing threatens Russia has decreased from 21% to 5%.

*Terrorist Anxiety Index reflects how much Russians are scared of becoming terrorists’ victims. The index is based on the question “Are you afraid that you or members of your family may become a victim of a terrorist attack?”The answers correspond to the coefficients ranging from 0.9 to 0.1.  The Index is measured in points and can vary between 10 and 90. The higher the value of Index is, the higher the fear of becoming terrors’ victims is.

**The Index reflects subjective assessment of respondents concerning the authorities’ capabilities to protect them against terrorist threat. The index is calculated as a difference between positive and negative answers to the question “In your opinion, will Russian authorities be capable of protecting the Russian population against new terrorist threats?” The Index is measured in points and can vary between -100 and 100. The higher the value of Index is, the more Russians are confident they are protected.

The VCIOM opinion poll was conducted on October 17-18, 2015; 1600 respondents were interviewed in 130 settlements in 46 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.5%.

'The survey was conducted after the Volgograd terrorist attack 

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