MOSCOW, September 2, 2009. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the data describing how Russians assess the current counter-terrorism situation, whom they lay responsibility for the terrorist attacks in North Caucasus on, and whether Russian authorities are able to protect population from terrorists.

Where does the terrorist threat come from?

The terrorist threat comes from Chechen terrorists first; however, the amount of such respondents has been decreasing over the recent years (38%, in 2006-2007 - 43-47%). The share of those who point out radical Islamic groups outside of  Russia has increased (31% versus 24% in 2007); the amount of Russians who think that terrorist threat comes from the United States and American special services has also considerably increased  (26% versus 8% in 2007). Other 24% mention radical Islamic groups operating within our country; 13% - gangs and mafia groups (from 2006 the amount of such respondents is decreasing - from 19%); 6% - Russian nationalist groups (they were twice more three years ago - 13%). Only 4% of Russians do not see any threat.

Russians lay responsibility for this year terrorist attacks in the North Caucasus on local terrorists (42%, in 2004 they were 49%). Thirty percent mention certain circles in the West who are interested in the weakening of Russia (since 2004 the part of such respondents has grown from 21%); 28% name al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. Among other versions respondents mention Chechen business (17%), some Russian business communities (8% versus 14% in 2004), and Russian special services (2% versus 5% respectively).

Scale of terrorist activity

Over the recent years the number of Russians who fear becoming a victim of another terrorist attack has fallen (from 78% in 2001 to 61% currently). At the same time, since 2006 there has been an increase in the share of Russians who are confident that it will not happen to them and their relatives (from 8% to 13%). And finally, over the recent eight years the amount of respondents who do not even think about it has increased three-fold (from 8% to 24%).

As before, the overwhelming majority of our fellow-citizens do not take any special measures to protect themselves and their relatives against terrorist threat (58%, in 2005 - 48%). Simultaneously, those who exercise vigilance in the place of their residence, in transport et cet. (32% versus 46% in 2005), as well as those who are trying not to visit mass events (8% versus 13% respectively) are becoming fewer. Respondents who are ready to help law-enforcement bodies, who learn self-defense techniques (4% for each), who participate in self-defense attachments (3%), or acquire self-defense weapons (1%) are in the minority

The situation in the North Caucasus is likely to be a local conflict rather than a full-scale war against Russia. Whereas in autumn 2005 Russians  did not have a single point of view towards whether the terrorist acts in Caucasus were  resulted from the war declared by terrorists against Russia, then currently the majority of respondents think is likely to be a local conflict  (54%), rather than war (20%). In 2005 there were 44% and 42% respondents respectively.

Russians who think that that the war declared by terrorists against Russia is taking place in the North Caucasus are confident that Russia will win (26%). In 20% of cases respondents say that there will be no winners in this war. Anyway, 14% are confident that terrorists will win. Among possible "winners" mentioned by respondents there are also authorities and those who are interested in this war (4% for each), West, Caucasus, "those who are smart" (2% for each). Other 1% is confident that that no one is winning.

Effectiveness of counter-terrorism actions

Every second respondent think that authorities, not people, should tackle the problem of combating terrorism (52%).  They are opposed by 42% of Russians who are confident that people should actively participate in such activities as well (in 2004 Russians had the opposite point of view - 35% and 61% respectively).

As before, Russians blame the Federal Security Service and special services for their failure to prevent terrorists' acts (44% versus 39% in 2004).  Russians more often blame regional authorities (23% versus 18% in 2004). On the contrary, those who lay responsibility on the Russian government 18% versus 23%), the Ministry of the Interior (16% versus 24%), and President (8% versus 13%) have become fewer. Other 11% blame the Ministry of Defense. Rarer Russians blame people who were not vigilant enough (6%).

Over the recent years Russians give higher assessments to counter-terrorism activities implemented by the power authorities. The amount of those who think that the work done by the Ministry of the Interior has positive results has increased from 19% in 2004 to 35% this year, as well as the work of the Federal Security Service - from 20% to 33%, and the Armed forces - from 20% to 36%.

Are there any changes for the best?

Russians do not mark any substantial changes in countering terrorism. Over the recent year the share of such respondents has doubled (from 25 to 50%). Every third respondent note progressive changes for the best (32%, last year - 53%). Eight percent of Russians are confident that the situation has worsened.  

Those who think that the situation has improved consider it was due to the effective work of Russian special services (21%) and right policy of the Russian president (19% versus 5-7% in 2006-2008). The proportions of those who mention the decreased number of terrorist attacks and terrorists (14% versus 24% last year) as well as improved order in the country (10% versus 17-19% in 2006-2008) have fallen. Other 6% think that the reason is the enhancement of the protection of public places; 5% note increased vigilance among our fellow-citizens (in 2006-2007 - 11-12%).  Rarer Russians mention experience dealing with counterterrorism (3%), change of power in Caucasus and tightening anti-terrorism legislation (2% for each), the end of the war in Chechnya and joint international efforts in fight against terrorism (1% for each).

Russian considering, in their turn, that the counter-terrorism situation has not changed or even worsened think it was caused by the increased number of terrorist acts and terrorists - over the recent year the share of such respondents has increased more than six times (from 4% to 25%, respondents thought the same in 2006 - 24%). The number of those who blame authorities has also risen (from 10% in 2008 to 18% this year). Nine percent mention difficult relations with the neighboring countries; 8% blame power authorities for their poor performance, 7% complain about low level of living standards; 5% note the intensification of the struggle for power and money in Caucasus. Rarer Russians mention people's indifference (1%).

Prospects for victory over terrorism

Half of Russians do not think that Russian authorities are able to protect them against next terrorist acts (49%). Compared with the last year, such a confidence has decreased (in 2008 - 66%). Thirty-seven percent consider that the leadership of the country cannot protect its citizens against terrorist threat (19% thought so a year ago).

Russians tend to positively assess the counter-terrorism initiatives of the President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev. The proposal to stop terrorist cases from being tried by jury and refer them to professional judges is considered to be effective buy 52% of respondents; the idea to stop judging terrorists at the place where the crime was committed to eliminate the pressure on the court and to try terrorists in other regions is considered as effective measure by 47%. Russians were divided on their opinion towards the initiative to raise salaries of the internal affairs officers in regions where fight against terrorism is taking place: 42% regard the initiative as effective versus 37% opposed.

The relative majority of Russians think that terrorism cannot be won (57%). As a rule, such respondents are supporters of Fair Russia party (78%). Nevertheless, every fourth believe in victory over terrorism (25%) - most of them are CPRF adherents (39%).

Russians think that to counter terrorism the authorities should tighten anti-terrorism legislation (7%), to improve the work of special services and to increase living standards (5% for each). Respondents also mention the following measures needed: raising public vigilance (4%), eradication of corruption in power bodies, strict regulation of migration processes (3% for each), joint efforts of the authorities, special services and population (2%); other 2% advise to establish order in the country. Rarer respondents consider necessary to educate a new generation to be intolerant towards terrorism, to combat terrorism using only force, or on the contrary, to solve problems peacefully, or destroy all terrorists (1% for each). However, in 34% of cases respondents are confident that eradication of terrorism is impossible.

Nevertheless, 15% of Russians still hope that terrorism can be defeated in a long-term perspective.  Twenty percent make detailed predictions:  6% think that it will be done within next twenty years, 9% - within ten years, 4% - within five years, and only 1% hopes to defeat terrorism within a year or two.

The initiative Russian opinion polls were conducted on August 29-30, 2009. 

1600 respondents were interviewed at 140 sampling points in 42 regions of Russia.

The margin of error does not exceed 3.4%.

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or www.wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM,

the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!