Half of Russians consider anti-Turkish sanctions sufficient; one-third of respondents require strengthening them.

MOSCOW, December 17, 2015. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the findings of the survey devoted the Russian assessments of the measures taken by the Russian government against Turkey in response to the Russian military plane incident.

Only 1% of respondents regard the Russian military plane incident (the Russian SU-24 was shot down by the Turkish armed forces on November 2015) as a contingency situation and confusion. One-fifth of Russians (21%) think that it was an intentional provocation to unleash a conflict. Every tenth (10%) blames Russia for interfering in the Turkish oil business; a further 5% say that Turkey took the side of the ISIL.

The Russian retaliatory actions are approved by more than three-quarters of Russians. Suspension of visa-free travel for Turkish residents is supported by 84%; ban on hiring Turkish workers – by 82%; import ban on Turkish goods –  by 82%; restrictions concerning the activities of the Turkish companies  – by 81%; ban on selling the tour packages to Turkey – by 82%; charter flights’ ban – by 79% of Russians.

At the same time, certain Russians (31%) think that the measures taken by the Russian government are not sufficient. Those who share this stance are mainly men (43% vs. 21% of women).  They are opposed by 8% of those who consider that the measures are excessive. Half of Russians (54%) believe that the retaliatory measures are adequate and do not need to be softened.  

Anti-Turkish sanctions imposed by Russia may chill economic and political relationships between the two countries (77%; fear index* makes up 37 p.). Two-thirds of respondents (65%) expect that goods will become more expensive in the next year (fear index is equal to 19 p.). However, the assortment of goods is unlikely to be reduced: 44% think it is possible; 52% do not think so (fear index is equal to -3 p.). The price increase for vacation packages is expected by 57% of respondents; the fear index makes up 17 p.

The Medialogia analysis reveled that the Turkish topic was mentioned 260 thousand times in the Russian media in November and December 2015. The media reported that the Turkish armed forces shot down the Russian SU-24 warplane and informed about the situation in the Russia-Turkey relationships. Turkey was also mentioned as part of changes in the Russian tourism industry, introduction of visa regime and sanctions against this country.

*Fear Index shows how Russians assess the probability of a certain problem. The higher the value of the index is, the more probable the event is, according to Russians. The index is based on the question: “How do you assess the probability of the following events to happen in your life?”; it is measured in points and can vary between -100 and 100. The answer “I am completely confident that it will happen” corresponds to the coefficient (1); “I think it will happen” - (0.5); “It is likely to happen” - (0.1); “It is unlikely to happen” – (0.1); “I think it will not happen” - (0.5); “I am completely confident that it will not happen” - (-1).

The VCIOM opinion poll was conducted December 5-6, 2015; 1600 respondents were interviewed in 130 settlements in 46 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.5%. Russian media monitoring and analysis were carried out by the Medialogia Company using approximately 29 600 sources such as television, radio, newspapers, magazines, information agencies and online media. Research period: November - December 2015.

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