MOSCOW, 24 February 2024. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a study on how public mood has changed since the special military operation was launched two years ago.

Success on our side

Two years ago Russian president Vladimir Putin launched a special military operation in Ukraine.  The past years have been tough for Russia because of the international sanctions, western efforts to isolate Russia, and the cancel culture policy. But as time shows, such difficulties are more likely to have united the Russian people.

Two-thirds of Russians are confident that the special military operation is likely going smoothly for the Russian troops (65%, +6 p.p. compared to the latest measurement in February 2023, having approached the March 2022 percentage of 70%). After the start of a special military operation in Ukraine most of Russians supported this decision (65%), a year later this percentage increased to 68% and remains the same in 2024.

The purposes are clear

According to V.Putin’s statements, the purpose of the special military operation is protection of people’s republics of Donbass, Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification and providing security to Russia. As VCIOM’s survey shows, Russians understand the purposes of the SMO: 43% consider that the purpose is to protect Russia, to disarm Ukraine and to prevent it from deploying NATO military bases (44% in March 2022). Every fifth respondent mentioned the protection of the population living in DPR and LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions (20%, 17% in March 2022). A further 15% believe that Russia is striving to change Ukraine’s political course, to rid it of Nazis (19% in March 2022). Six percent of respondents say the purpose was to occupy Ukraine and to incorporate it into Russia’s territory (5% in March 2022). Over the recent two years Russian views of the SMO’s purposes have not changed substantially.

SMO and Russian society

Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine has played a crucial role in consolidating the Russian society. Today seven out of ten respondents believe that every Russian should contribute to the successful outcome of the SMO in Ukraine (72%); 19% oppose them. Two-thirds of Russians think that everyone should live according to the “All for the Front, All for Victory!” principle (64%); 28% disagree with this statement.

VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide telephone survey was conducted 3, 19, 22 February, 2024. A total of 1,600 Russians aged 18+ took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interviews, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. Data were weighted for social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of February 3, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7696; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0151; response rate (RR)*** = 0.1063.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of February 19, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7997; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0162; response rate (RR)*** = 0.1069.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of February 22, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7812; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0145; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0655.

Calculations are based on the corporate standard.

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.

*February data are from the survey dated February 19.

* February data are from the survey dated February 19.

*Before 2024 the wording was “to protect the Donbass population (DPR and LPR”). 

** February data are from the survey dated February 3.

* February data are from the survey dated February 22.

* February data are from the survey dated February 22.