One-third of Russians are expecting the second wave of the world crisis, high value of dollar and bank collapse. It does not prevent Russians from thinking that now is a good time for making big purchases and getting credits.
MOSCOW, October 26, 2011. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the data concerning the possibility of the second wave of the economic crisis in Russia, how Russians prefer to save their money, as well as how much the dollar will cost, according to Russians.
The majority of Russians believe that Russia is experiencing financial crisis; some think that Russia will not soon get over it (43%); on the contrary, other people see positive trends (39%). Only 8% of respondents cite that Russia has come out of instability. To compare: in 2008, ten years after the 1998 default, respondents` assessments were more positive than now - 22% thought that the crisis had been over and 49% thought that the country was getting over it.
The second wave of the crisis is more likely to happen than it was two years ago: 36% of respondents are confident of that (two years ago – 24%). Those who expect a new phase of the crisis think that it will take place in the beginning in the next years (14%). Other 9% believe that it is now, and 5% think that it will come not earlier than 2013. Other 8% do not know when it happens, but they think that it will definitely take place in the future.
More than half of Russians (53%) believe that the bank crisis is possible to happen in the coming years: 42% think it is possible and 11% think it is sure to happen. Those who think so are basically Russians aged 35-44 (59%) and those with high level of education (58%). On the contrary, 35% believe that the crisis is hardly or impossible to happen. They are mainly Russians aged 18-24 and 45-59 (41% for each). In comparison with the previous year, fewer respondents think that the crisis is possible: the index* has decreased from 24 to 18.
In October the number of Russians who had savings reached the maximum of 34% (versus 28% a year ago). At the same time, the share of those Russians who do not have savings is decreased (from 65% in April to 62% currently).
Russians prefer saving money to buy property (26%), just in case or for a rainy day (26% for each). Russians also cite medical treatment (19%), education (14%), and vacation (13%). Least of Russians save money to use them in case they lose their job, to buy a car (9% for each), expensive items (8%) or a plot of land (dacha) (6%), to launch their own business (4%) or to increase revenue (3%).
As before, the most reliable way of investing money is purchasing real estate property (46%). The interest of Russians toward buying gold or valuables has sharply increased from 15% to 24%. At the same time, the level of confidence toward keeping money in Sberbank has decreased (from 26 to 22% since July), as well as toward saving money in rubles (from 17 to 13% over half a year). Least reliable ways to save money are saving in currencies (7%), contributions to pension and investment funds (6 and 3%, respectively), purchasing shares (5%), opening a commercial bank account (3%).
Now big purchases seem more real for Russians than in the summer: Consumer confidence index** has increased from 43 to 46, which is the highest value over the year. The growth is due to the increased number of those who think that now is the best time to make big purchases (from 32 to 36%) and, at the same time, the decreased number of those who think that now is not a good time to spend money (from 52 to 47% over seven months). Credit confidence index is steadily growing***: it has increased by 5 points compared with April (from 29 to 34), thus, has reached the maximum this year. This is due to the increase in the share of Russians who think that getting credit is possible (from 18 to 23%) and to the decrease in the number of those who think one should not get credit now (с 70 до 63%).
The majority of Russians did not buy currencies during the month (92%). The remainder has equally divided into those who prefer either dollar or euro (4% for each).
The public interest in dollar keeps decreasing: the share of those who track the fluctuations of the American dollar has reduced from 48% in January to 43% in the current month.
According to the majority of Russians, the change in the value of ruble against other currencies does not influence their value (59%); however 13% tend to think that this causes increase of prices and makes the life more expensive.
Saving money in ruble are still the most preferable, however to a lesser extent than it was two years ago (from 67 to 60%), followed by euro (12%) on the second place, and dollar (9%) on the third place.
According to relative majority of Russians, today dollar rises against ruble (39%). Russians are hard to forecast the dollar rate in the end of the year (56% are hard to tell how much it will cost); however the remainder cited that the dollar would be higher than now (30-39 rubles) - 22% of respondents.
If the dollar keeps rising, most of Russians will not do anything (74%). The remainder will invest in property and other expensive items (9%)
The initiative Russian opinion polls were conducted October 15-16, 2011. 1600 respondents were interviewed at 138 sampling points in 46 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.4 %.
In your opinion, has Russia come out of crisis/is Russia steadily coming out of crisis or will it take a long time for Russia to come out of crisis? (close-ended question, one answer) | ||
July 2008* | October 2011 | |
Russia has come out of crisis | 22 | 8 |
Russia is steadily coming out of crisis | 49 | 39 |
It will take many years for Russia to come out of crisis | 19 | 43 |
Hard to tell | 11 | 10 |
*In 2008 the respondents were asked about the 1998 crisis.
In your opinion, will there be a second wave of the crisis in Russia? (close-ended question, one answer) | ||
| September 2009 | October 2011 |
Yes | 24 | 36 |
No | 34 | 29 |
Hard to tell | 42 | 35 |
In your opinion, are the bank crisis, default and loss of savings possible in Russia in the next two or three years? (close-ended question, one answer) | |||
April 2006 | June 2010 | October 2011 | |
Absolutely impossible | 12 | 5 | 3 |
Hardly possible | 31 | 27 | 32 |
Possible | 44 | 43 | 42 |
It will certainly happen; it has happened | 6 | 13 | 11 |
Hard to tell | 7 | 12 | 12 |
Index | 7 | 24 | 18 |
*Bank crisis probability index shows if Russians think that the bank crisis is possible in the next two or three years. The index is based on the question: “In your opinion, are the bank crisis, default and loss of savings possible in Russia in the next two or three years?” The index is calculated as a difference between possible (the crisis is possible; it has happened) and opposite (the crisis is hardly possible or impossible) assessments. The higher the value of the index is, the higher the probability of the crisis is, according to Russians. The index can vary from -100 to 100. The positive value shows that the share of those who are expecting the bank crisis is currently dominating. The zero value sets the balance of assessments.
**Consumer confidence index shows if Russians think that big purchases can be made now. The higher the value is, the more favorable Russians think the situation for making big purchases is. The index is based on the question: “In your opinion, is it a good time now to make big purchases, or not? (close-ended question, one answer). If the answer is “rather good”, the coefficient is 0.9; if the answer is “rather bad”, the coefficient is 0.7; if the answer is “hard to tell”, the coefficient is 0.5. The index is measured in points and varies from 10 to 90.
***Credit confidence index shows whether lending is currently possible in Russia. The higher the value of index is, the more favorable Russians think the current situation for lending is. The index is based on the question “In your opinion, is now a good time for lending, or not? (close-ended question, one answer)”. If the answer is “rather good”, the coefficient is 0.9; if the answer is “rather bad”, the coefficient is 0.7; if the answer is “hard to tell”, the coefficient is 0.5. The index is measured in points and can vary from 10 to 90.
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