MOSCOW, 19 May 2025. VCIOM Analytical Center presents the findings of a monitoring study about Russia’s friends and foes.

Against the background of another ‘ice age’ in Russia-West relations, finding new allies in a multipolar world becomes more important. The so-called turn to the East and the Islamic factor in Russia’s foreign policy do not go unnoticed for Russia: preferences are being changed, new images of friends and foes are being formed. Based on monitoring study data conducted by VCIOM Analytical Center the following trends in public perceptions of ‘us’ and ‘them’ in the international arena can be singled out.

1. The Russia-India-China strategic triangle. Over the entire monitoring period China has managed to keep the strongest friendly relations with Russia; and its position is strengthening year-by-year according to Russian opinions. India, another Asian giant, has also strengthened its position over the recent three years (2019-2022). India went up from the 3d position to the 5^th position in the list of countries that are friendly with Russia.
2. Belarus is the closest and most reliable Rusia’s ally in the post-Soviet space. Unlike, for example, Turkey and Kazakhstan, where public opinion is subject to change, Belarus holds a stable second position in the list of the friendliest states, according to the findings.
3. Rapprochement with the “isolated” countries. Over the recent three years Iran and North Korea have made a remarkable bound forward due to areas of common interests, namely a vast experience in confronting the West and considerable international sanctions. Common experience along with economic and military cooperation are common ground for rapprochement, partnership and mutual assistance. African countries have become more noticeable due to a change in geopolitical priorities and a search of new partners: in the rating of the friendly states, they outpace certain post-Soviet countries (Uzbekistan, Kyrghyz Republic, Tajikistan). However, the African group of countries is still perceived in a vague and generalized way, as they are often mentioned as the African continent in general rather than single countries (Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Ethiopia, etc.)
4. Thaw in Russian - American relations and the increasing confrontation with Western Europe. Ambivalence and indeterminism in the Russian - American relations are confirmed by the presence of the United States in both ratings – the list of friends and the list of foes. For the first time in the history of the monitoring, the U.S.A.  lost the lead in the list of ill-wishers to three European countries at once, the so-called leaders of the Coalition of the Willing in the conflict in Ukraine – France, Great Britain and Germany, which is largely due a change of power overseas and a rhetoric on settling the conflict in Ukraine. As to Ukraine, since the start of the special military operation, fewer Russians perceive Ukraine as an ill-wisher – over the three years it has gone down from the 2d to the 4^th position in the list. On the one hand, this paradox can be explained through the prism of the ‘fraternal nation’ idea consistently present in the public mind. On the other hand, through a better understanding of the purposes of the special military operation in Ukraine: the purposes are not to change the political course in Ukraine or to occupy the country but to protect Russia’s interests and to disarm the neighbor. Besides that, such public assessments are also shaped by country’s inability to act independently globally.
5. Forgotten ‘key’ to Middle East. Despite a desire of a new Syrian leader to maintain strategic relationship with Russia, Syria stopped being perceived as a friend and ally long time ago; only a handful of respondents consider Syria as Russia’s ally today, whereas amid the 2018 military operation in Syria, every sixth respondent considered Syria to be Russia’s ally. A same situation, but in the rating of Russia’s ill-wishers, was observed in Georgia. A surge in dislikes in 2019 caused by anti-Russian protests was followed by an almost full oblivion in the years that followed.

All-Russian VCIOM-Sputnik telephone survey was conducted April 27, 2025. A total of 1,600 respondents aged 18 and older took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interview, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of April 27, 2025: cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7418; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0184; response rate (RR)*** = 0.1177. Calculations are based on corporate standard:

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.

* Before 2017, surveys were conducted through household face-to-face interviews (Express project); stratified multi-stage sample, with quotas based on socio-demographic parameters; representative of the Russian population aged 18+, according to type of settlement, gender, age, education and federal district. Sample size: 1,600 respondents.

Author: Lyudmila Bogomazova