The military threat to Russia is down; the Russian military capacity is up.

MOSCOW, October 16, 2015. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the results of the survey describing how the Russian assessments regarding the military threats to Russia and the Russian military capacity have changed over the recent twenty-five years.

According to September 2015 assessments, the military attack seems less possible (48%) compared to January assessments (68%); however, the possibility is stronger than it was in 1990 (13%). Today 43% of Russians believe that external threat does not exist (57% in 1990). The Military Threat Index made up 5 points in September 2015 and 44 p. in 1990. The United States are regarded as the top aggressor (53%; 19% in 1990), whereas Germany which was the main enemy a quarter of a century ago (23%) is not considered as Russia’s potential rival.

The Russian assessments concerning the military capacity of the Russian armed forces have dramatically changed since the Perestroika times. Whereas, today 32% are confident that the Russian army is the most effective and strongest in the world (5% in 1990) and 49% believe that it is among the best ones (21% in 1990), compared to 1990, when 34% of respondents thought that the Russian army was lagging behind the leading armies of the world (12 % in 2015) and 15% thought that its war-making capacity was at a low level (3% in 2015).  From 1990 to 2015 the Russian Army War-making Capacity Index has increased from -23 to 66 points. Twenty-five years ago half of Russians (50%) considered that the military expenditures were too high (19% disagreed with that), but today 35% agree with this idea and 52% do not share this point of view.

War-making Capacity Index shows how strong, as Russians think, the war-making capacity of the Russian army is. The higher the Index is, the higher Russians assess the war-making capacity of the army. The index is calculated as a difference between positive and negative answers to the question: “Which of the statements describing the war-making capacity of the Russian army do you most agree with?” The Index is measured in points and can vary between -100 and 100.

Military Threat Index describes subjective attitudes of Russians regarding hypothetical external military threats to Russia. The index is based on the question “In your opinion, Is there any country that poses a military threat to Russia today” The index is calculated as a difference of positive and negative answers. The higher the value of Index is, the more Russians are confident that there is no military threat. The value of Index may vary between -100 and 100 points.

The VCIOM opinion poll was conducted on October 10-11, 2015; 1600 respondents were interviewed in 130 settlements in 46 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.5%.        

*In February 2015, the question was as follows: “In your opinion, is there any military threat to Russia coming for other states?”

**In 1990, the survey included representative sample involving Russian urban and rural populations aged 16 and over; the sample size was 1708. 

*In 1990, the question referred to the Soviet army.

**In 1990, the survey included representative sample involving Russian urban and rural populations aged 16 and over; the sample size was 1520. 

* In 1990, the question referred to the Soviet army.

**In 1990, the survey included representative sample involving Russian urban and rural populations aged 16 and over; the sample size was 766. 

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!