After the regime change Russians do not find any improvements in the bilateral relations but they believe that in the future the situation might change.
MOSCOW, February 20, 2018. The Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the results of a study describing the Russian views regarding the situation in Ukraine four years after the Maidan.
Today about three-quarter of Russians still keep track of the developments in Ukraine (72%), including 17% of those who keep a sharp eye on the situation (they are mainly older generations: 36% of those aged 60+ and 21% of those aged 45-59 compared to 2% of the 18-3-year-olds).
In 2014 Russians perceived the Maidan as revolution, coup d’état (26%), a planned provocation (8%) or a catastrophe (8%), while today they view the current situation as disorder (16%), civil war (12%) or crisis (8%).
Most of Russians across all social and demographic groups (75%) consider that in general Ukraine lost due to the Maidan events. Thirteen percent say that those events did not change anything; just 2% believe that Ukraine won.
Forty percent of respondents think that the current relations between Russia and Ukraine are tense (mainly young respondents: 47% of those aged 18-24), 22% call them hostile (26% of those aged 45-60 and over), 13% “chilly” and 11% “neutral”. Almost half of respondents believe that over a year the relations have got neither worse nor better (49%); every third says the relations are deteriorating (34%).
Russians are more likely to assess the future of the bilateral relations positively: 40% are confident that friendly and allied relationship will be restored (men are more likely to be positive (46%) compared to women (35%)). Almost the same share of respondents (38%) believe that sooner or later the relationships will get back to normal but they will never be the same as they used to be. Every tenth Russian believes that relationships can hardly be restored (10%).
The VCIOM-Sputnik survey was conducted on February 15-16, 2018. The survey involved 2,000 Russians aged 18 and over, and was carried out using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.2%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
Do you personally keep track of the current political developments in Ukraine? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | ||||||||||
| II.14 | III.14 | IV.14 | VI.14 | VIII.14 | X.14 | I.15 | IX.15 | VIII.16 | II.18 |
Yes, very attentively | 27 | 39 | 30 | 39 | 32 | 29 | 38 | 25 | 20 | 17 |
Yes, occasionally | 47 | 46 | 47 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 55 |
No, I don’t | 26 | 15 | 22 | 14 | 19 | 22 | 16 | 29 | 33 | 27 |
Don't know | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Do you personally keep track of the current political developments in Ukraine? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) |
| ||||||
| Total respondents | Aged 18-24 | Aged 25-34 | Aged 35-44 | Aged 45-59 | Aged 60 and more | |
Yes, very attentively | 17 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 36 | |
Yes, occasionally | 55 | 51 | 48 | 61 | 62 | 51 | |
No, I don’t | 27 | 47 | 50 | 30 | 17 | 12 | |
Don't know | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
More than four years ago the Euromaidan took place in Ukraine. How would you describe what was happening in Kiev’s Maidan at the time? (open-ended question, up to three answers, %) | |
Revolution/Coup d’état | 26 |
Political interests/well-planned provocation | 8 |
Disaster/catastrophe | 8 |
Seizure of power | 7 |
Lawlessness, banditism | 7 |
Civil war | 6 |
Other negative associations | 6 |
Disorder/farce | 6 |
Innocent people suffered | 6 |
Western intrigues/American involvement | 5 |
Chaos/lawlessness | 3 |
Deceit/mistake/absurdity | 3 |
Change of power | 3 |
Expression of the will of the people/good intentions | 2 |
The president failed to retain the power | 2 |
Protest | 1 |
Other | 1 |
Don't know | 25 |
Can you describe in two or three words what is happening now in Ukraine? (open-ended question, up to three answers, %) | |
Disorder/farce/circus | 16 |
Civil war | 12 |
Decadance/crisis | 8 |
Anarchy/chaos | 7 |
Outrage | 5 |
Country's dissolution | 5 |
People are suffering | 5 |
Fight for power | 5 |
Other negative associations | 4 |
Russia-Ukraine confrontation | 4 |
Banditry / Fascism | 3 |
Plundering of the country | 3 |
Protests/public discontent about the power | 3 |
Stabilization/Calm | 3 |
American/pro-Western support | 3 |
Nationalization | 2 |
Events related to Mikheil Saakashvili | 2 |
Other | 2 |
Don't know | 36 |
In your opinion, did Ukraine win or lose due to the Maidan? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | |||||||
| Total respondents | Male | Female | Incomplete secondary education | Secondary education | Specialized secondary education | Incomplete higher, higher education |
Ukraine is likely to have won | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Ukraine is likely to have lost | 75 | 80 | 71 | 57 | 69 | 76 | 78 |
Actually nothing has changed | 13 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
Don't know | 10 | 6 | 12 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 8 |
How would you assess the current relations between Russia and Ukraine? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | |||||||||||
| 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2010 | V.2010 | 2013 | I. 2014 | III. 2014 | X. 2015 | VIII. 2016 | II.2018 |
Tense | 15 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 7 | 23 | 16 | 45 | 38 | 37 | 40 |
Hostile | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 26 | 22 |
Chilly | 25 | 12 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 29 | 23 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 13 |
Neutral | 21 | 19 | 22 | 20 | 31 | 22 | 28 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
Friendly | 10 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
Good-neighborly | 8 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Rather warm | 9 | 26 | 20 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Don't know | 8 | 13 | 20 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
In your opinion, in what direction have the Russia-Ukraine relations been evolving over the recent year? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | ||||||
| Total respondents | Aged 18-24 | Aged 25-34 | Aged 35-44 | Aged 45-59 | Aged 60 and more |
The relations are being normalized | 7 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
The relations are not getting either better or worse; nothing is changing much | 49 | 59 | 53 | 56 | 47 | 41 |
The relations are getting more tense, deteriorating | 34 | 22 | 23 | 27 | 39 | 47 |
Don't know | 10 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
Speaking about the future Russia-Ukraine relations, what might they be? (closed-ended question, one answer %) | |||
| Total respondents | Male | Female |
The relations will be getting worse due to Ukraine’s desire to be integrated into Europe | 10 | 11 | 10 |
The relations will be normalized but they will never be friendly or brotherhood as they used to be | 38 | 32 | 44 |
Sooner or later friendly and allied relationship will be restored | 40 | 46 | 35 |
Don't know | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!