Results of our studies

IN BRIEF

The data of the VCIOM-Omnibus daily survey show that more and more Russians perceive Russia as one of the most influential countries in the world. 

MOSCOW, March 15, 2017. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the results of a survey devoted to the Russia’s role in the international arena.

The Russian assessments of the Russia’s position in the international arena have considerably strengthened over a year: whereas in 2016 the share of Russians who considered that the Russia’s role in international affairs was substantial was 75%, in 2017 this share makes up 86% (which is an all-time high). At the same time, the number of skeptics has fallen by almost half (from 18% to 10%; 16% among non–parliamentary parties’ supporters; 19% of those who assess their financial situation as bad or very bad).

Over the recent three years, hopes that Russia will become a great power have grown into confidence that the country is already one of the greatest ones. In 2014, 54% of respondents said that Russia would be one of the greatest in 15 or 20 years; today 57% say that Russia is already one of the leading powers in the world. At the moment, approximately a third of Russians (31%) consider that it will happen in the next decades; they are opposed by 10%.

A feeling of threat that was particularly strong in the beginning of 2015 (68% thought that there was a military threat at that moment) is steadily weakening (42% of Russians share this standpoint in March 2017). The corresponding Index* over the same period has dropped from 40 p. to -12 p.  At the same time, the U.S.A. is still perceived as a major potential threat to Russia (43% of those who say that a threat exists; a further 21% think that the threat comes from Ukraine). More than half of respondents (54%) think that there is no any military threat to Russia at the moment.

*Military Threat Index shows Russian subjective opinion about potential military threat to Russia. The Index is based on the question “In your opinion, is there any threat of military attack against Russia coming from any country?" It is calculated as the difference between positive and negative answers. The higher the value of Index is, the more Russians are confident that the military threat is real.  The Index can vary between -100 and 100 points.

The Sputnik omnibus survey was conducted on March 2-3, 2017, using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia, and involved 1200 respondents. Russians aged 18 and over took part in the survey.  The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 3.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

In your opinion, what influence does Russia have in international affairs today? (closed-ended question, one answer,%)

 

2008

2014

2016

2017

Important influence

14

25

28

35

Rather important influence

44

57

47

51

Rather small influence

18

10

11

7

Almost no influence

3

3

7

3

Don’t know

21

5

7

4

In your opinion, will Russia be capable of being a great power in the next 15 or 20 years?

(closed-ended question, one answer, %)

 

2003

2005

2007

2008

2010

2013

2014

2016

2017

Rather yes

40

33

46

50

36

41

54

49

31

Rather no

36

41

31

19

30

39

18

18

10

Russia is already one of the greatest powers

12

13

12

16

18

10

19

26

57

Don’t know

12

13

11

15

16

10

9

7

2

Is there any threat of military attack against Russia coming from any country?* (closed-ended question, one answer, %)

 

1990**

I.2000

I.2002

II.2009

II.2010

II.2014

II.2015

X.2015

III.2017

Yes, there is

13

49

44

37

49

52

68

48

42

No, there are no threat

57

44

43

52

40

42

28

43

54

Don’t know

31

7

13

11

11

6

4

9

4

Military threat index

-44

5

0

-15

10

10

40

5

-12

*For the March 2000 – February 2015 period, the question was as follows: “In your opinion, is there any threat against Russia coming from other states?”

**In 1990, the mass survey was representative of the Russian rural and urban populations aged 16 and over; the sample size was 1708 persons.

If you think that there is a military threat against Russia coming from a particular country, can you specify this country? (open-ended question, one answer, % of those who think that certain countries pose a military threat to Russia; answers mentioned by at least 1% of respondents during the latest survey)

 

1990**

X.2015

III.2017

U.S.A.  (America, United States, NATO countries)

19

53

43

Ukraine

0

10

21

NATO members  (NATO, NATO countries)

6

5

4

Europe (European countries, EU)

0

2

2

ISIL

0

6

1

Syria

0

3

1

China

5

1

1

East (Middle East in general; some small Eastern country; all Eastern countries)  

0

1

1

Germany, FRG

23

0

1

Baltic states

0

0

1

Other countries

18

6

3

Don’t know

29

13

21 

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!

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