Every second Russian shows a liking for Alexander Lukashenko.  

MOSCOW, JULY 27, 2020. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a study devoted to the attitudes of Russians towards Belarus and its president Alexander Lukashenko.

Current bilateral relations

Public assessments of the current state of Russia-Belarus relations are neutral and positive. Twenty-seven percent of Russians call them “normal” or “calm”; 15% call them “friendly”; 17% consider them as “good, good-neighborly”. As to negative assessments, only 6% of Russians view the bilateral relations as tense.

Positive assessments have a downward trend compared to their peak in December last year, when 24% of respondents called the bilateral relations “friendly”, and 22%, “good and good-neighborly”. The number of those who failed to characterize the bilateral relations has doubled (16%).

In what direction are Russia-Belarus relations developing, according to Russians?

After a peak optimism in the perceptions of the direction of bilateral relations, the current assessments got back to early-2019 levels. Today 49% of Russians consider the bilateral relations to be stable as before; this share has decreased by 6 p.p. since December last year, sinking below 51% recorded in early 2019. In contrast, the share of those who have marked deterioration in the bilateral relations has returned to the January 2019 levels after a decrease in December; today it is 21%.

Only one in ten respondents pointed to improvements in relations (11%); their share was twice as small in December 2019. Besides that, the proportion of those who find it hard to assess the direction in which bilateral relations are heading has increased by 8 p.p. since December 2019 (19%).

Attitudes towards Belarusian president

The attitude towards the Belarusian president is similar to that of the attitude towards the country – positive or neutral. Every second Russian has positive views of the Belarusian president (52%). One-third of survey respondents show indifference (35%); and almost every tenth has a negative attitude (9%).

Older generation Russians are more likely to have positive perceptions (65% of respondents aged 60+). This might be due to their previous experience of living in the USSR and their perception of Belarus as a fraternal sate. On the contrary, those aged 18-24 are more likely to show negative perceptions and indifference (68% and 13%, respectively).

Russians tend to have positive emotions towards Alexander Lukashenko: respect (34%; since 2017 this share has been stable), liking (18%), and trust (14%). Hope is expressed by 5% of Russians (-4 p.p. since an increase in 2017).  

However negative emotions are also present: a part of respondents express their distrust (7%, -5 p.p. since 2017), disappointment (5%), dislike (4%) and skepsis (4%).

Russian VCIOM-Sputnik survey was conducted on July 21, 2020. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,600 Russians aged 18 and older. A stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of Russian landline and mobile phone number was used. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.