MOSCOW, 10 April 2024. Russian Public Opinion Research enter (VCIOM) presents the findings of a monitoring survey devoted to the perceptions of Russia globally.

Russia’s goals in the 21^st century  

A March survey reveals that four in ten Russians consider that Russia should strive to become one of 10-15 economically developed and politically influential countries of the world in the 21^st century (41%). A further 37% want Russia to regain its former superpower status. Public opinion on this issue changes year by year. For example, in 2020 Russians were expected Russia to join the group of the most influential countries (44% vs. 31% of those who support regaining a superpower status); the same thing was observed in 2007-2008, 2010 and 2013. However, in early 2000s and 2014 these viewpoints were competing. Indeed, ten years ago 41% of Russians expected Russia to join the top ten of the most influential countries of the world; 42%, to regain its superpower status.

On the contrary, aspiring leadership in the post-Soviet space has become less vital: 16-14% of respondents chose this answer option in early 2000s vs only 8% today. A further 5% think that Russia should not strive for any global goals.

On Russia’s global influence

Overall, respondents think Russia has high rankings (79%, +6 p.p. over the recent two years). According to the findings, Russia was the most powerful in 2017 (87%), with a minimum influence in 2008 (58%). In a ten-year retrospective confidence in Russia’s big global influence has grown up (25% in 2014, 31% in 2024), however it has not had any impact on the total number of favorable answers (82% and 79% respectively).

Every seventh respondent considers that Russia has small or almost no influence in the world (14%); over the recent three years this viewpoint has become less common (26% in 2021).

Great power and how to be one

Russia’s increasing status globally confirms forecasts regarding its changing international status within the next 15-20 years. In early 2000s there were two contending viewpoints: some part of respondents thought that Russia would be a great power soon (33-46%), the other part of respondents had an alternative viewpoint (31-41%). Only 12-13% of Russians could call Russia a superpower. In 2008 and 2014 public forecasts were much more optimistic: about half of Russians were confident that Russia would be a great power (50% and 54% respectively) and only 19-18% did not expect it to be. It’s only in recent years that much more Russians perceive Russia as a great power. The number of those who could call Russia a great power was 20% ten years ago (+10 p.p. since 2013) vs 37% in 2020 during the following survey. In 2022 this percentage reached its maximum 51%; it was at 46% in a March survey. Today another 35% of respondents see Russia as a great power within the next 15-20 years; 13% oppose them.  

The superpower status is associated with a strong economy, according to Russians. Asked about what Russia should do to become a superpower, respondents often point to “economic development/price decrease/lifting of sanctions” (19%). Other responses touch upon foreign policy efforts (restoring the relations with other countries – 14%, victory in the special military operation – 12%, peaceful foreign policy  - 5%, independence/sovereignty – 3%, finding a solution in US-Russia relations – 3%) and domestic policy (higher living standards/people’s well-being – 12%, development of the country/regions / tourism / ecology – 12%, support for population / employment – 5%, improvements in health care sector– 3% et cetera).

VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide telephone survey was conducted 29 March, 2024. A total of 1,600 Russians aged 18+ took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interviews, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. Data were weighted for social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of March 29, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7860; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0154; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0798.

Calculations are based on the corporate standard: https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.

*In 2005, the answer option was “to seek to unite the countries around Russia in the post-Soviet space”, in 2003 “to seek leadership in the post-Soviet space and to be as important as the USA and the EU”.