Russians expect further weakening of the ruble against the US dollar.
MOSCOW, January 14, 2016. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the results of the survey devoted to the following questions: what foreign currency Russians choose for their savings; whether they keep track of the dollar to ruble exchange rate; and how much, they think, the dollar will cost in three months and in one year.
In the end of 2015, Russian expectations concerning the ruble positions have worsened: in December the three-month expected average of the dollar to ruble exchange rate was equal to 76 rub. (the real exchange rate of 70 rub.), whereas in November it was 69 rub. (the Bank of Russia’s real exchange rate of 66 rub.).
At the same time, Russians do not keep track of the foreign exchange rates more actively (48% in November; 51% in December including 20% who did it regularly and 31% - from time to time); however, compared to January 2015, this share has considerably decreased (from 65%). Middle-aged respondents (54-58% of the 25-44-year-olds) are more interested in the exchange rates than elderly respondents (36% of those aged over 60). In December, 48% reported that they did not keep track of the situation the foreign exchange market (33% in January).
During the previous year, the share of Russians who were keeping their savings in rubles was fluctuating within 50-58% and reached 52% in December. Few Russians keep savings in dollars and euros - 5% and 3%, respectively. Remarkably, the US dollar is preferred by Russians with high income (12%). Forty-three percent of Russians do not have savings; they are mainly those who live in rural area and those who have elementary and secondary level of education and income below average.
The VCIOM opinion poll was conducted on December 25-26, 2015. A total of 1600 respondents were interviewed in 130 settlements in 46 regions and republics of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.5%.
In your opinion, how much will the Russian ruble cost in three months/ one year? | |||||||||||||
| 31.01-01.02. | 28.02-01.03. | 28-29.03. | 25-26.04. | 30-31.05. 15 | 27-28.06. 15 | 25-26.07. 15 | 29-30.08. 15 | 26-27.09. 15 | 24-25.10. 15 | 28-29.11. 15 | 26-27. | |
| Real value* | 69 | 61 | 58 | 50 | 53 | 54 | 58 | 67 | 66 | 62 | 66 | 70 |
Average | In three months | 71 | 63 | 56 | 51 | 51 | 55 | 58 | 71 | 69 | 66 | 69 | 76 |
In one year | 74 | 60 | 54 | 51 | 50 | 55 | 57 | 60 | 69 | 65 | 70 | 76 | |
* Central Bank data over the specified period
Do you keep track of the dollar to ruble exchange rate? (closed-ended question, one answer) | ||||||||||||
| 01.15 | 02.15 | 03.15 | 04.15 | 05.15 | 06.15 | 07.15 | 08.15 | 09.15 | 10.15 | 11.15 | 12.15 |
Yes, regularly | 27 | 24 | 21 | 25 | 22 | 17 | 18 | 23 | 20 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
Yes, sometimes | 38 | 38 | 39 | 36 | 37 | 35 | 34 | 37 | 35 | 33 | 29 | 31 |
No, I do not | 33 | 36 | 38 | 37 | 40 | 46 | 47 | 38 | 44 | 49 | 51 | 48 |
Don’t know | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
What currency do you keep your savings in? (closed-ended question, not more than three answers) | ||||||||||||
| 01.15 | 02.15 | 03.15 | 04.15 | 05.15 | 06.15 | 07.15 | 08.15 | 09.15 | 10.15 | 11.15 | 12.15 |
Russian ruble | 55 | 50 | 52 | 53 | 58 | 54 | 53 | 51 | 57 | 54 | 55 | 52 |
US dollar | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Euro | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Other currency | <1 | <1 | 1 | <1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | 1 | <1 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
I have no savings | 38 | 42 | 41 | 42 | 37 | 41 | 41 | 42 | 40 | 43 | 40 | 43 |
Don’t know | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory.