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RATING OF NATIONAL THREATS - 2013

22.07.2013

IN BRIEF

The biggest threats to Russia are representatives of different nationalities that come to live in Russia, as well as decline in culture, science and education;External threats such as military conflicts with western, southern or southeastern countries, as well as with the closest neighbors are seen as less important, according to Russians.

Russians are less concerned about military conflicts than the threat that comes from migrants moving to live in Russia and the threat of culture decline.

MOSCOW, July 22, 2013. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the data describing the threats that Russians are most concerned about.

The biggest threat that Russians are worried about is that Russia is being occupied by the representatives of other nationalities (35%). This is followed by decline in culture, science and education (33%), ecological catastrophe (28%), terrorist attacks at strategic points (28%), oil and gas depletion (25%), split within the ruling elite (24%), population extinction due to low birth rate (23%), and sharp decline in living standards (22%).

Less important threats are threat from space (19%), massive epidemics (17%), loss of border territories (13%), and civil war (13%). Russians are not afraid of any external threats such as war against western countries (11%), southern and southeastern countries (11%), and conflicts with the closest neighbors (10%), coup carried out by western intelligence agencies (10%). Few Russians believe in the reality of threats such as revolution (10%), loss of Russian sovereignty (10%), breakup of Russia into several states (9%); fascists coming to power seem to be least possible thing that could threaten Russia (6%).

Today Russians pay more attention to such threats as split within the ruling elite (the share of those who believe it is real has increased from 17 to 24%), decrease in living standards (from 17 to 22%), civil war (from 7 to 13%), war against western countries (from 5 to 11%), and war against southern and southeastern countries (from 5 to 11%).

The VCIOM opinion polls were conducted on June 15-16, 2013. 1600 respondents were interviewed in 130 communities in 42 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.4%.

In your opinion, what threat is more real for Russia today? (close-ended question, one answer per each position)
Breakup of Russia into several independent states *	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	34	24	17	24	21	9	9
Possible, but unlikely to happen	29	36	33	34	33	30	27
Almost unreal	32	36	42	34	40	53	57
Hard to tell	4	3	8	7	6	8	7
*Until 2013 : “Loss of part of Russian territory up to its breakup into several independent states”
Split within the ruling elite, violent fight for power	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	46	31	27	16	25	17	24
Possible, but unlikely to happen	30	42	39	27	34	32	36
Almost unreal	14	20	24	42	33	43	32
Hard to tell	10	7	10	15	8	8	8
Revolution in Russia, similar to what has happened in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	27	15	14	15	11	10	10
Possible, but unlikely to happen	32	40	31	33	33	27	29
Almost unreal	37	40	44	45	49	55	53
Hard to tell	4	5	11	8	7	8	7
Civil war in Russia	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	27	15	13	13	12	7	13
Possible, but unlikely to happen	31	30	28	29	27	23	28
Almost unreal	38	50	51	51	53	64	51
Hard to tell	4	4	8	8	7	7	7
War against western countries	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	17	13	10	13	10	5	11
Possible, but unlikely to happen	31	36	28	30	26	21	27
Almost unreal	46	47	51	46	55	65	54
Hard to tell	7	4	10	11	9	10	8
Terrorist attacks at strategic points (atomic stations, reservoirs, urban survival systems)	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	67	41	38	46	43	30	28
Possible, but unlikely to happen	24	39	37	33	38	37	40
Almost unreal	6	15	17	13	13	25	25
Hard to tell	3	5	7	8	6	8	7
War against southern and southeastern countries	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	20	12	10	12	10	5	11
Possible, but unlikely to happen	32	37	29	28	28	20	32
Almost unreal	39	45	50	47	51	65	48
Hard to tell	10	6	11	13	11	10	9
Military conflicts with the closest neighbors (Ukraine, Georgia, Baltic states)	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	26	19	21	21	23	8	10
Possible, but unlikely to happen	38	44	42	38	40	29	30
Almost unreal	31	31	29	31	29	53	51
Hard to tell	5	6	8	9	8	10	8
Sharp decline in living standards up to famine	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	70	26	22	31	30	18	22
Possible, but unlikely to happen	23	38	37	34	38	33	36
Almost unreal	6	33	36	29	26	41	35
Hard to tell	1	4	5	6	6	7	7
Coup carried out by western intelligence agencies	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	22	15	11	14	11	9	10
Possible, but unlikely to happen	34	33	31	30	29	26	34
Almost unreal	33	42	41	40	48	52	46
Hard to tell	11	9	17	17	12	14	10
Loss of several border territories (Kaliningrad region, Primorie region)	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	42						13
Possible, but unlikely to happen	32						33
Almost unreal	21						45
Hard to tell	5						8
Russian population extinction due to low birth rate	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	58	36	25	31	29		23
Possible, but unlikely to happen	25	38	37	37	35		36
Almost unreal	15	23	33	28	33		37
Hard to tell	2	2	6	4	3		5
Oil, gas and other natural resources depletion	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	46	36	30	40	30		25
Possible, but unlikely to happen	30	37	39	34	36		36
Almost unreal	14	24	24	20	28		32
Hard to tell	10	4	7	7	6		6
Loss of sovereignty, external control by U.S. and western countries	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	18						10
Possible, but unlikely to happen	29						24
Almost unreal	44						57
Hard to tell	9						9
Other nationalities moving to live permanently in Russia (Chinese, Vietnamese)	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	58						35
Possible, but unlikely to happen	27						33
Almost unreal	13						25
Hard to tell	2						7
Ecological catastrophe	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	59	41	36	48	41		28
Possible, but unlikely to happen	30	39	39	33	36		40
Almost unreal	9	16	17	12	17		26
Hard to tell	2	4	8	7	5		6
Decline in culture, science, education	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	59	31	22	36	37		33
Possible, but unlikely to happen	28	33	36	30	31		35
Almost unreal	12	31	36	26	26		26
Hard to tell	2	4	6	8	6		6
Fascists coming to power	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	11	9	5	7	6		6
Possible, but unlikely to happen	19	24	20	20	13		17
Almost unreal	65	63	67	63	72		70
Hard to tell	5	4	8	10	9		7
Massive epidemics (cholera, AIDS, atypical pneumonia)	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	37	27	22	29	28		17
Possible, but unlikely to happen	38	46	40	39	37		41
Almost unreal	22	23	29	25	29		34
Hard to tell	3	4	8	8	7		8
Threat from space (comets, meteorites)	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2012	2013
Quite real	15	17	14	17	20		19
Possible, but unlikely to happen	24	33	29	35	30		40
Almost unreal	50	41	41	35	38		32
Hard to tell	11	8	16	13	12		9

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com. as well as distributed by VCIOM.

The reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!

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