Results of our studies

IN BRIEF

Russians are less concerned about military conflicts than the threat that comes from migrants moving to live in Russia and the threat of culture decline.

MOSCOW, July 22, 2013. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the data describing the threats that Russians are most concerned about.

The biggest threat that Russians are worried about is that Russia is being occupied by the representatives of other nationalities (35%). This is followed by decline in culture, science and education (33%), ecological catastrophe (28%), terrorist attacks at strategic points (28%), oil and gas depletion (25%), split within the ruling elite (24%), population extinction due to low birth rate (23%), and sharp decline in living standards (22%).

Less important threats are threat from space (19%), massive epidemics (17%), loss of border territories (13%), and civil war (13%). Russians are not afraid of any external threats such as war against western countries (11%), southern and southeastern countries (11%), and conflicts with the closest neighbors (10%), coup carried out by western intelligence agencies (10%).  Few Russians believe in the reality of threats such as revolution (10%), loss of Russian sovereignty (10%), breakup of Russia into several states (9%); fascists coming to power seem to be least possible thing that could threaten Russia (6%).

Today Russians pay more attention to such threats as split within the ruling elite (the share of those who believe it is real has increased from 17 to 24%), decrease in living standards (from 17 to 22%), civil war (from 7 to 13%), war against western countries (from 5 to 11%), and war against southern and southeastern countries (from 5 to 11%).

The VCIOM opinion polls were conducted on June 15-16, 2013. 1600 respondents were interviewed in 130 communities in 42 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.4%.

In your opinion, what threat is more real for Russia today?

(close-ended question, one answer per each position)

Breakup of Russia into several independent states *

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

34

24

17

24

21

9

9

Possible, but unlikely to happen

29

36

33

34

33

30

27

Almost unreal

32

36

42

34

40

53

57

Hard to tell

4

3

8

7

6

8

7

*Until 2013 : “Loss of part of Russian territory up to its breakup into several independent states”

Split within the ruling elite, violent fight for power

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

46

31

27

16

25

17

24

Possible, but unlikely to happen

30

42

39

27

34

32

36

Almost unreal

14

20

24

42

33

43

32

Hard to tell

10

7

10

15

8

8

8

Revolution in Russia, similar to what has happened in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

27

15

14

15

11

10

10

Possible, but unlikely to happen

32

40

31

33

33

27

29

Almost unreal

37

40

44

45

49

55

53

Hard to tell

4

5

11

8

7

8

7

Civil war in Russia  

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

27

15

13

13

12

7

13

Possible, but unlikely to happen

31

30

28

29

27

23

28

Almost unreal

38

50

51

51

53

64

51

Hard to tell

4

4

8

8

7

7

7

War against western countries  

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

17

13

10

13

10

5

11

Possible, but unlikely to happen

31

36

28

30

26

21

27

Almost unreal

46

47

51

46

55

65

54

Hard to tell

7

4

10

11

9

10

8

Terrorist attacks at strategic points (atomic stations,  reservoirs, urban survival systems)

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

67

41

38

46

43

30

28

Possible, but unlikely to happen

24

39

37

33

38

37

40

Almost unreal

6

15

17

13

13

25

25

Hard to tell

3

5

7

8

6

8

7

War against southern and southeastern countries  

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

20

12

10

12

10

5

11

Possible, but unlikely to happen

32

37

29

28

28

20

32

Almost unreal

39

45

50

47

51

65

48

Hard to tell

10

6

11

13

11

10

9

Military conflicts with the closest neighbors (Ukraine, Georgia, Baltic states)  

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

26

19

21

21

23

8

10

Possible, but unlikely to happen

38

44

42

38

40

29

30

Almost unreal

31

31

29

31

29

53

51

Hard to tell

5

6

8

9

8

10

8

Sharp decline in living standards up to famine

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

70

26

22

31

30

18

22

Possible, but unlikely to happen

23

38

37

34

38

33

36

Almost unreal

6

33

36

29

26

41

35

Hard to tell

1

4

5

6

6

7

7

Coup carried out by western intelligence agencies

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

22

15

11

14

11

9

10

Possible, but unlikely to happen

34

33

31

30

29

26

34

Almost unreal

33

42

41

40

48

52

46

Hard to tell

11

9

17

17

12

14

10

Loss of several border territories (Kaliningrad region, Primorie region)

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

42

 

 

 

 

 

13

Possible, but unlikely to happen

32

 

 

 

 

 

33

Almost unreal

21

 

 

 

 

 

45

Hard to tell

5

 

 

 

 

 

8

Russian population extinction due to low birth rate   

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

58

36

25

31

29

 

23

Possible, but unlikely to happen

25

38

37

37

35

 

36

Almost unreal

15

23

33

28

33

 

37

Hard to tell

2

2

6

4

3

 

5

Oil, gas and other natural resources  depletion

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

46

36

30

40

30

 

25

Possible, but unlikely to happen

30

37

39

34

36

 

36

Almost unreal

14

24

24

20

28

 

32

Hard to tell

10

4

7

7

6

 

6

Loss of sovereignty, external control by U.S. and western countries  

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

18

 

 

 

 

 

10

Possible, but unlikely to happen

29

 

 

 

 

 

24

Almost unreal

44

 

 

 

 

 

57

Hard to tell

9

 

 

 

 

 

9

Other nationalities moving to live permanently in Russia (Chinese, Vietnamese)

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

58

 

 

 

 

 

35

Possible, but unlikely to happen

27

 

 

 

 

 

33

Almost unreal

13

 

 

 

 

 

25

Hard to tell

2

 

 

 

 

 

7

Ecological catastrophe   

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

59

41

36

48

41

 

28

Possible, but unlikely to happen

30

39

39

33

36

 

40

Almost unreal

9

16

17

12

17

 

26

Hard to tell

2

4

8

7

5

 

6

Decline in culture, science, education    

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

59

31

22

36

37

 

33

Possible, but unlikely to happen

28

33

36

30

31

 

35

Almost unreal

12

31

36

26

26

 

26

Hard to tell

2

4

6

8

6

 

6

Fascists coming to power

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

11

9

5

7

6

 

6

Possible, but unlikely to happen

19

24

20

20

13

 

17

Almost unreal

65

63

67

63

72

 

70

Hard to tell

5

4

8

10

9

 

7

Massive epidemics (cholera, AIDS, atypical pneumonia) 

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

37

27

22

29

28

 

17

Possible, but unlikely to happen

38

46

40

39

37

 

41

Almost unreal

22

23

29

25

29

 

34

Hard to tell

3

4

8

8

7

 

8

Threat from space (comets, meteorites)  

 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2012

2013

Quite real

15

17

14

17

20

 

19

Possible, but unlikely to happen

24

33

29

35

30

 

40

Almost unreal

50

41

41

35

38

 

32

Hard to tell

11

8

16

13

12

 

9

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com. as well as distributed by VCIOM.

The reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!

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