Results of our studies

IN BRIEF

The demonstrators say there is a need for a dialogue between the power and the opposition. This dialogue should be led by Grigory Yavlinsky. Those who gathered on Bolonaya square on February 4th will cast their vote for M.Prokhorov on March 4th.

MOSCOW, February 15, 2011. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the results of the poll conducted on Bolotnaya square on February 4th.

Demonstrator`s portrait

 

Those who gathered on Bolotnaya square on February 4h were generally men (71%), younger than 45 years old (71%), with high level of education (56%), with average (56%) and high financial income (27%). Eighteen percent of respondents were office workers, 12% - public servants, 11% - workers, 10% - information sector employees. Besides, 9% of participants were retired persons, 8% - students. Most of the participants are active Internet users (60% use the Internet every day).

The overwhelming majority of those who took part in the rally of February 4th were supporters of democratic and liberal values:  23% said they were democrats, 18% - liberals, 3% - liberal-democrats. The least numerous were supporters of communism (7%), social-democrats (4%), supporters of socialism (2%) and other ideologies.

Most of those who came to Bolotnaya square on February 4th live in Moscow (81%). Nineteen percent of participants specially came to Moscow to participate in the rally. 

Participation in the rally

Two-thirds of participants took part in the rally with their friends and relatives (69%); at the same time, 23% said they came alone.

Internet was the main source of information about the rally (70%).  Rarer respondents mentioned friends and relatives (38%) and television (35%).   The share of those who got the information from social networking sites is 22%. Blogs were less popular as a source of information (8%).

The key reason why the participants of the rally came to the Bolotnaya square was their disagreement with the results of the parliamentary elections (23%). The shares of those who were protesting against authorities (16%), against Putin (12%), against lies and lawlessness (11%), and who were supporting the opposition (11%) have decreased.

The majority of those who gathered on Bolotnaya square decided to take part in the rally as soon as they knew about it  (46%). Other 32% made their decision within a week before the rally; only 5% decided to go to the square on the day of the rally.

Most of those who took part in the rally on Bolotnaya square on February 4th were on the square on December 10th (58%) and took part in the rally on Sakharov avenue on December 24th (72%); however the share of those who previously took part in the rally at Chistye Prudy was only 36%.

Slogans and key figures

Most of participants liked the way the rally was organized (63%). The best speaker was recognized to be G.Yavlinsky (30%), followed by L.Parfenov on the second place (18%). Only 9% of respondents liked the other speeches. The speeches of A.Belov (5%) and K.Sobchak (4%) were least appreciated.

The most popular rally`s slogan was “Down with Putin, Russia without Putin” (47%), followed by “For fair and just elections” on the second position (16%).

Many respondents said the person they respected most was G.Yavlinsky (29%). Participants were also in favor of А.Navalny (18%), M.Prokhorov (12%), B.Nemtsov (11%) among leaders of the opposition.

Participants` electoral preferences

The overwhelming majority of those who came to Bolotnaya square on February 4th took part in 2011 parliamentary elections (82%). Most of them cast their vote for Yabloko party (37%). The shares of those who supported other parties were fewer: LDPR and CPRF  - 18% per each, A Just Russia – 8%, Right Cause – 5%, Patriots of Russia – 3%, United Russia – 3%.

Among candidates for presidency M.Prokhorov is supported by most of respondents - 27%. He is followed by G.Zyuganov (15%) on the second place and V.Zhirinovsky on the third place, then followed by S.Mironov (11%). Three percent of respondents would cast their vote for V.Putin.

About parliamentary and presidential elections

Fifty-three percent of those who gathered on Bolotnaya square are confident that the majority of the population does not support V.Putin. Nevertheless, 16% oppose them; 23% think that Russian population is indifferent towards V.Putin.

Most of respondents report violations during parliamentary elections (89%): 38% have read about it in mass media and Internet, 35% have known about it from friends and relatives, and 18% have personally encountered such situations.  

According to participants of the action, V.Putin is the one who will win the presidential elections (44%). At the same time, 10% believe that the future president might be G.Zyuganov, 8% - M.Prokhorov, 5% - V.Zhirinovsky, 3% - S.Mironov.

The rally`s participants are divided in their opinion whether the elections will be fair:  50% are confident that the results will be garbled; 47% think there will be small violations which will not have any impact on the final results.

Relations between power and opposition

According to the majority of rally`s participants, today there is a need for a dialogue between the power and the opposition (57%). The number of those who think that the opposition should not enter into the negotiations with the power is considerably smaller (29%).

The persons who could lead the dialogue are G.Yavlinsky (22%), V.Zhirinovsky, A.Navalny (16% for each), M.Prokhorov (14%). Respondents also mentioned G. Zyuganov  and L. Parfenov (10% for each).  

Plans of demonstrators

The majority of rally`s participants (84%) report they will take part in such actions in the future; 53% will definitely do that.  

In case the rally supports V.Putin, 55% of participants would not participate in it. Thirty-eight percent say that they would join such a rally to express their protest against Putin`s policy; on the contrary, 3% would support V.Putin.

If Putin wins the presidential elections, 65% of participants will attend protest actions against results of elections. Twelve percent report they will join organizations or parties that oppose Putin`s policy; 5% will search any possibility to emigrate.

The initiative Russian opinion was conducted on February 4, 2012 at the exit from the rally on Bolotnaya square. 800 respondents were interviewed.

Do you live and work in Moscow or did you come specially to participate in the demonstration?

 (close-ended question, one answer)

 

I live and work in Moscow

81

No, I came here to participate in the demonstration

19


From what sources did out know about this demonstration? (close-ended question, any number of answers)

Internet (news)

70

From friends/ relatives

38

Television/ radio/ newspapers/ magazines

35

Social network sites (Vkontakte, Facebook)  

22

Blogs (livejournal, Blogpost  et cet.)

8

Other

4

Hard to tell

2


Are you here alone or with friends/relatives? (close-ended question, one answer)

Alone

23

With friends/relatives

69

Hard to tell

8


Why do you participate in today`s demonstrations?
 
(open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers scored not less than 2% ) 

Unfair elections, disagreement with the results

23

Protest against authorities, political system, political situation in the country

16

Against Putin

12

For opposition

11

Against lies,  theft and corruption, lawlessness

11

Interest, curiosity

8

Active civil position, duty

5

I came with friends

4

No democracy

4

Eager for  a better life, changes

4

Other

2

Hard to tell

3


When did you decide to take part in demonstration? (close-ended question, one answer)

Several weeks ago, as soon as  I knew that the demonstration would take place

46

During the last week

32

Today

5

Hard to tell

17


Have you ever taken part in demonstration like that? (close-ended question, one answer)

Protest at Chistye Prudy, December 6

Rally on Bolotnaya square, December 10

Rally on Sakharov avenue, December 24

Yes, I have

36

58

72

No, I have not

63

42

28

I do not remember/ I will not tell you

1

Less than 1

Less than 1

Hard to tell

Less than 1

Less than 1

Less than 1


If similar rallies take place in the near future, will you take part? (close-ended question, one answer)

 

 

Definitely, yes

53

Rather yes

31

Rather no

2

No

2

Depending on the situation

12

Hard to tell

Less than 1


Was there anything in the rally that you did not like or you were disappointed with? If yes, what exactly?
(open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers scored not less than 2% )

 

I liked everything

63

Bad weather, the cold

5

Poor speeches; speeches  were not enough

4

Hard to see and hear the speakers

3

No place to get warm; no toilets

2

Lots of barriers that make it hard to get through

2

Composition of people  (communists, nationalists)

2

Hard to tell

14


Did you take part in parliamentary elections that took place on December 4th, 2011?

 (close-ended question, one answer)

Yes

82

No

17

Hard to tell

1


If it is not a secret, which party did you vote on December 4th, 2011?

(close-ended question, one answer, those who participated in elections)

 

Yabloko

37

LDPR (liberal-democratic party of Russia)

18

CPRF (Communist party of Russian Federation)

18

A Just Russia

8

Right Cause

5

United Russia

3

Patriots of Russia

3

I will not  tell you

5

I spoiled the ballot

3

Hard to tell

1

 

There has been a lot of discussion about the violations during the elections. Have you encountered such violations? If yes, how did you know about them? (close-ended question, one answer)

I  have read/seen information about violations in mass media, including Internet

38

My friends and relatives told me about violations

35

I personally encountered violations during the elections

17

I heard about it at the rally

6

I do not know/ there were not any violations

2

Hard to tell

2


Which speakers did you like most?
(open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers that scored not less than 2%)

Yavlinsky

30

Parfenov

18

Navalny

9

Shevchuk

9

Ryzhikov

8

Zhirinovsky

8

Nemtsov

5

Ulitskaya

5

Gudkov

5

Troitsky

4

Bykov

4

Udaltsov

4

Akunin

3

Karpov

2

Chicherina

2

Romanova

2

Prokhorov

2

Yashin

2

None

11

Hard to tell

7


Were there any speakers that you did not like?

(open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers that scored not less than 1%)

Belov

5

Sobchak

4

Yavlinsky

3

Ulitskaya

2

Ampilov

2

Navalny

1

Gudkov

1

Chicherina

1

Yasina

1

Ryzhikov

1

Udaltsov

1

Shevchuk (DDT)

1

Nemtsov

1

Parfenov

1

Yashin

1

None

57

Hard to tell

22


Which of the slogans stated during the rally did you most agree? (open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers that scored not less than 1%)

 

Down with Putin, Russia without Putin

47

For free, fair elections

16

Change of power, political system

5

Down with crooks and thieves, liars and corruptionists   

4

Free political prisoners

2

Power to people

2

Russia will be free

2

Power to millions

2

Down with Churov

1

Peoples’ will, law and freedom

1

Give us our rights, decent life

1

More parties for the elections, registration of all the parties

1

For fair Russia

1

Yavlinsky`s presidency

1

Enough feeding foreign countries

1

Third term is mortal

1

 Love your home? Go with us!

1

I am a teacher, I am here

1

Russia for Russians

1

Let`s pass through to 2d round

1

We got dressed warmer

1

The state, it is me!

1

We are not banderbloggers, neither slaves, not donkeys et cet.

1

For the justice

1

United, we are invincible

1

People and army are united

1

We are not opposition, we are employers

1

Other

4

Hard to tell

8


Is there any leader of the opposition that you like and respect?
(open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers that scored not less than 1%)

 

Yavlinsky

29

Navalny

18

Prokhorov

12

Nemtsov

11

Zhirinovsky

9

Ryzhkov

7

Akunin

6

Parfenov

6

Zyuganov

4

Mironov

3

Shevchuk

3

Gudkov

2

Udaltsov

2

Bykov

2

Karpov

1

Kudrin

1

Chirikova

1

Yashin

1

Kasparov

1

Ulitskaya

1

Chubais

1

None of the opposition

2

Nobody

9

Hard to tell

8


On March 4th 2012, the presidential elections will take place in Russia. Which candidate will you support?
(close-ended question, one answer)

Mikhail Prokhorov

27

Gennady Zyuganov

15

Vladimir Zhirinovsky

13

Sergey Mironov

11

Vladimir Putin

3

I will spoil the ballot

13

I will not take part in the voting

7

Hard to tell/ not decided yet

12


In your opinion, who will win the presidential elections 2012?

 (close-ended question, one answer)

Vladimir Putin

44

Gennady Zyuganov

10

Mikhail Prokhorov

8

Vladimir Zhirinovsky

5

Sergey Mironov

3

Hard to tell

30

 

In your opinion, does the majority of Russians support Vladimir Putin today or not?
(close-ended question, one answer)

The majority supports V.Putin

16

The majority does  not support Putin

59

The majority is indifferent

23

Hard to tell

3


Which of the statement about the future presidential elections do you most agree?
(close-ended question, one answer)

Presidential elections will be absolutely fair

1

There will be some small violations during the elections,

however that will not have any impact on the final results

47

Most of results  will be garbled

50

Hard to tell

2


There are a number of opinions about the dialogue between the power and the opposition. Which of them do you most agree?
(close-ended question, one answer)

Immediate dialogue between power and opposition is needed today

57

There should not be any dialogue between power and opposition

29

Hard to tell

14


In your opinion, which political or public figure could lead the dialogue on behalf of opposition?  (open-ended question, any number of answers, %of those who think that the dialogue is necessary. Shown are answers that scored not less than 1%)

 

Yavlinsky

22

Zhirinovsky

16

Navalny

16

Prokhorov

14

Parfenov

10

Zyuganov

10

Akunin

9

Ryzhkov

8

Nemtsov

7

Bykov

4

Mironov

4

Kasparov

2

Karpov

1

Kasianov

1

Shevchuk

1

Gudkov

1

Kudrin

1

Udaltsov

1

None/I do not know anyone

3

Other

2

Hard to tell

7


What ideology do you support?
(open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers that scored not less than 1%)

Democracy

23

Liberalism

18

Communism

7

Social-democrat

4

Right

4

Democracy-liberalism

3

Socialism

2

Anarchism

1

Left

1

Capitalism

1

SR

1

Monarchism

1

Parliamentary republic

1

None

20

Other

3

Hard to tell

11


Gender

Male

71

Female

29


Age

18-24

20

25-34

28

35-44

23

45-59

20

60 and above

10


Education  

Elementary, incomplete secondary

3

Secondary,  technical college

15

Secondary special

26

Higher, incomplete higher

56


Employment  

Unemployed

24

Industrial sector

19

State and municipal service

18

Services sector

17

Budget sector

16

Hard to tell

5


Profession, job position

 

Office worker

18

Civil servant, administrative worker

12

Worker

11

Engineering and technical workers

10

Retired person, unemployed

9

Student

8

Budget worker (doctor, lecturer, social worker,  teacher)

7

Businessmen, entrepreneurs

5

Artistic professions (artist, musician, PR specialist, journalist)

4

Housekeeping

3

Serviceman, bodies of interior affairs, including police  and federal security service

2

Registered unemployed

1

Other group

3

Hard to tell

4


Financial self-assessment  

Very good

1

Good

26

Average

59

Bad

11

Very bad

2

Hard to tell

1

 

Do you use the Internet? If yes, how often? (close-ended question, one answer)

Almost every day

60

Several times per week

22

Several times per month

6

From time to time, but not less than once per year

2

I do not use it

7

Hard to tell

3

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