Russian protest potential is decreasing. According to respondents, the “white ribbon” movement did not achieve much and has little chance of reviving.

MOSCOW, January 24, 2014. Russian Public Opinion Research Center presents the data concerning the attitudes of Russians towards the protest movement in Russia and Ukraine.

Level of the protest mood

In December 2011, the index of public protest potential* reached its maximum (38 points) over five years, compared to 31 points in January 2014. The personal protest potential index** has decreased from 32 in December, 2011 to 28 points in January, 2014.

“White ribbon” movement: two years later

According to Russians, the main reason behind the protest actions was public dissatisfaction with government (17%). Russians also consider that the participants of the rallies were not satisfied either with the living standards (8%), or with the results of the elections (7%); some respondents say that the participants wanted to bring about disorder in the society (5%) or to attract attention (4%).

A relative majority of Russians (45%) think that those who took part in the rallies were people who wanted to be heard. One-third of respondents (33%) are confident that the participants get money for their participation (the share of such respondents has increased compared to 2012 – 25%); 13% believe that people were forced to take part in the rallies. One-fifth of respondents (21%) state that the participants of the actions are ordinary citizens who have plenty of time.

Organizers and participants of the rallies failed to achieve their goals, according to three-quarter of Russians (74%) (two years ago the share of such respondents made up 57%).

More than one-third of Russians (36%) pay no attention to the rallies and their participants; this opinion was shared by 30% two years ago. Every fourth respondent (23%) does not support participants but believes that any person has the right to take part in such actions. Other 15% of respondents support the participants but refuse to take part in demonstrations.

Half of Russians (48%) consider that the wave of the protest mood is over, and it will not be resumed. They are opposed by 27% of respondents saying that the rallies will intensify and we should expect a new surge of protest mood. Those who think so say that the major reason for that is the fall in living standards (25%), lack of any changes in the country (10%) or high inflation rate (5%). Their opponents think that there will not be any protests because they have no effect (23%), there are no reason for the protests (12%), and the situation in the country is stable (10%).

Russia and Ukraine

Most of Russians (76%) are aware about the decision of the Russian authorities to grant a 15 bln dollar loan and to reduce gas price. At the same time, more than one-quarter of respondents (27%) say that they are well aware of that. Those who are more aware are elderly persons (82% of people aged 45 and over), residents of Moscow and St.Petersburg (86%). Only every fifth respondent (23%) has not heard about these measures before.

Thinking over the reason why the Russian president made such a decision, most of respondents conclude that the decision was made to preserve the friendly relationships between Russia and Ukraine (13%). One-tenth of respondents (10%) say that the decision was made to help Ukraine in hard times. Rarer respondents mention fraternal help (7%), “wining Ukraine over to the Russian side (7%), a political move, or a measure against Ukraine’s joining the European Union (6%, for each), as well as Russia`s pursuing its own interests (5%).

*Public Protest Potential Index shows the probability of mass protesting, according to the attitudes of Russians, the higher the value of index is, the more confident respondents are.

The index is based on the answer to the question: “In your opinion, are mass protests against a drop in living standards possible in your city/settlement? The coefficients are distributed in the following way: “rather possible” 0.9; “hardly possible” – 0.1; “undetermined” – 0.5. The index value is measured in points and can fluctuate between 10 and 90.

**Personal Protest Potential Index shows the readiness of Russians to take part in mass protest actions. The higher the value of index is, the more respondents are ready to take part in the protests. The index is based on the question: “If mass protests against falling livings standards happen in your city/settlement, will you personally take part in them?”. The coefficients are distributed in the following way: “rather yes” – 0.9; “rather no” – 0.1; “undetermined” – 0.5. The index value is measured in points and can fluctuate between 10 and 90.

The VCIOM opinion poll was conducted on January 18-19, 2013. 1600 respondents were interviewed in 130 communities in 42 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.4%.

*In 2011 the question was as follows: “In your opinion, what are the goals of the organizers and participants of the rallies and demonstrations?”(open-ended question, any number of answers)

*Earlier the question was as follows: “What is your attitude towards rallies and demonstrations and their participants?

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!