The level of protest potential of Russians is still low. Rallies and demonstrations are mainly perceived as crisis symptoms rather than instruments to solve problems.

MOSCOW, January 23, 2015. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the results of the survey concerning the public and personal protest potential in Russia.

The protest potential growth that started in the first quarter of 2014 was mentioned in the first decade of January 2015: protest potential index* exceeded the previous monthly average and reached 34 points. Twenty-seven percent of Russians believe that protests are possible in their community. However, a relative majority of Russians (66%) still think that the protests are hardly possible in their cities/rural area.

The index measuring Russians` readiness to take part in mass rallies has been fluctuating between 23 and 25 points over the recent half a year. In January the personal protest potential index** made up 25 points. Three quarter of Russians (77%) report that they will never hold a mass meeting. Only 16% say they would (the shares of those have low level of education and low income is 23% in each group).

Russians have no desire to take to the streets to protest against social injustice because they think that rallies are useless (37%), however today the number of those who have such a stance is smaller than in was in 2013 (47%). Others are afraid that the law enforcement officers will use force (28%); that they will have problems at work (26%), or they will be arrested (25%). Every fifth respondent (19%) thinks that people worry about their only problems, and they do not want to deal with social problems. Sixteen percent cite the lack of information about protest actions (16%); 12% do not like mass gatherings in general.

For the time being, Russians are much more negative about rallies than they were three years ago: in 2012, 22% said that protests were unacceptable and would lead to the collapse; today the share of such people is 30%. Those who think so are mainly residents of Moscow and St.Petersburg (42%), rather than rural area residents (27%). More than one-third of respondents (38%) say that rallies are manifestations of the systemic crisis (28% in 2012). At the same time, the share of those who believe that rallies, picketing etc. are manifestations of democracy and general means to solve problems has decreased (from 36% to 23%).

*Public protest potential index shows how possible Russians think the mass protests are. The index is based on the question “In your opinion, are mass protests against fall in living standards possible in your city/rural area?” If the answer is “rather possible”, the coefficient is 0,9; “hardly possible” -– 0,1; “undecided” – 0,5. The index is measured in percentage points and can vary between 10 and 90. The higher the value of index is, the more confident Russians are that the protests may happen in their community.

**Personal protest potential index shows the readiness of Russians to take part in mass protests. The index is based on the question “If mass protests against fall in living standards happen in our city/rural area will you personally take part or not?” If the answer is “rather yes”, the coefficient is 0,9; “rather no”  – 0,1; “undecided” – 0,5. The index is measured in percentage points and can vary between 10 and 90. The higher the value of index is, the more respondents are ready to take part in the protests.

The VCIOM opinion poll was conducted on January 10-11, 2015. 1600 respondents were interviewed in 132 communities in 46 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3,5%.

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory