MOSCOW, January 31, 2008 Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents a forecast on the voter turn out and the results of the presidential election that are to take place on March 2 this year.
Forecast of the voter turn out in the elections of President of the Russian Federation
80.7% of respondents stated that they will probably participate in the elections (cf.: 71% of respondents spoke of their willingness to vote in the parliamentary elections in October 2007, 5 weeks before the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation). 14.4% are not going to vote in the elections of President of the Russian Federation.
The probabilistic model of the electoral behavior considers, not only the proclaimed intentions of voters, but also their previous voting experience and motivation to vote. The probability of voter turn out at the elections on March 2, amounts to 70.7%.
Forecast of the voter turn out for the presidential elections in the Russian Federation | ||||
| "Are you going to participate in the State Duma elections on December 4, 2007?" | "Are you going to participate in the presidential elections on March 2, 2008?" | ||
| October 2007 | January 12-13, 2008 | January 19-20 | January 26-27 |
Yes, I definitely am | 32,8 | 39,6 | 48,2 | 45,3 |
Yes, I rather am | 38,2 | 42,2 | 32,0 | 40,0 |
No, I am rather not | 9,8 | 8,2 | 7,0 | 4,4 |
No, I am definitely not | 9,1 | 5,3 | 4,7 | 4,6 |
Hard to say | 10,1 | 4,7 | 8,1 | 5,7 |
Voter turn out for the State Duma elections on December 4, 2007 | 63,3 |
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Forecast of the voter turn out for the presidential elections in Russia on March 2, 2008 |
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| 70,7 |
Forecast of voting results on March 2, 2008
The forecast has been formed taking into account a series of factors, which consider the divergences between the contenders' ratings, revealed in the course of opinion polls, and elections results. When working out the forecast, the following factors have been taken into consideration: the different levels of voter turn out of the different contenders´ electorate, the "socially approved answers" phenomenon that part of respondents demonstrate, as well as the "rational voting" factor.
The probabilistic model has been formed on the basis of the long-term observations carried out by VCIOM and is based on the application of the step-up and step-down coefficients, which have been calculated by comparing the survey results and the actual elections results.
Forecast of elections results for the elections that are to take place on March 2, 2008 | ||||
Presidential contenders | „If you are planning to participate in the presidential elections, which of the following presidential contenders would you vote for?" | Coefficient | Forecast of election results as of January 30
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Share among respondents total | Share among „active" voters | |||
A.Y. Bogdanov | 0,4 | 0,4 | 2,25 | 0,9 |
V.V. Zhirinovsky | 5,5 | 6,1 | 1,89 | 11,5 |
G.A. Zyuganov | 5,3 | 5,6 | 2,29 | 12,8 |
M.M Kasyanov | 0,8 | 0,8 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
D.A. Medvedev | 63,5 | 71,2 | 1,05 | 74,8 |
I would not vote | 7,8 |
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Hard to say | 16,8 | 15,9 |
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The initiative All-Russia opinion poll was conducted by VCIOM on January 26-27, 2008. 1600 respondents were interviewed each time in 153 population areas of 46 regions of Russia. The statistical error does not exceed 3.4%.