MOSCOW, January 22, 2007 Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents information on what part of Russians is planning to vote in the presidential elections on March 2 this year and why they are willing to vote or refuse to do so, who they are going to vote for and whether respondents think that election results will be possible to rely on.
A month and a half before the presidential elections, 60% of respondents are following the elections campaign, this includes 11% who are following it attentively and 49% who do that from time to time. 39% are not keeping up with it. Considering the previous presidential elections, the share of those attentively following the election campaign is still lower than four years ago (19% were closely following it in February 2004, whereas only 11% do so now). The attention that respondents pay to the elections grows proportionate to their age: the share of those following the campaign with a keen eye increases starting from 5% among the youth of 18 to 24 years up to 18% among respondents of 60 and older.
82% of respondents identify that they are going to vote, this includes 40% who are sure about it. The level of proclaimed voter turn-up was a little lower in February 2004 and only reached 78%. The highest share of respondents planning to vote is to be found in small towns (88%).
When asked why they are going to vote, respondents speak of quite traditional reasons: first of all, out of habit (45%), secondly, as they consider voting to be their civic duty and, thirdly, as they wish to support their presidential contender (24%). Respondents mentioned the same three reasons four years ago.
People try to justify their decision of not voting by saying that elections will not change the overall state of affairs in the country (30%), that the election results have already been predetermined (24%), and also that they are in the habit of never going to the elections (24%). The main argument in February 2004 was the predetermination of results (26%).
The share of respondents who fully trust the election results has grown in these four years (from 36% up to 44%). The portion of those who expect manipulations to occur at the local level that will not actually affect the election results on the whole, has simultaneously decreased from 40% down to 34% as well as the share of those who do not think the election results to be authoritative did (from 19% down to 10%). The highest level of trust is characteristic of respondents aged 60 years and older, as 52% of respondents in this age group assume that the election results are going to be authoritative.
Voters who are planning to go to the elections, are willing to vote for Dmitry Medvedev (60.4%), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (7.5%) or Gennady Zyuganov (6.1%). Mikhail Kasyanov's rating totals 0.8%, whereas that of Andey Bogdanov equals 0.2%.
The initiative all-Russia opinion poll was conducted by VCIOM on January 12-13, 2007. 1600 respondents were interviewed in 153 population areas of 46 regions of Russia. The statistical error does not exceed 3.4%.
According to the Constitution, Vladimir Putin cannot participate in the coming presidential elections. Who would you rather vote for in these elections considering the fact? | ||||
| December 15-16, 2007 | December 22-23, 2007 | January 5-6, 2008 | January 12-13, 2008 |
Bogdanov | <1 | 0,3 | 0,2 | 0,2 |
Zhirinovsky | 4,8 | 4,8 | 4,9 | 7,5 |
Zyuganov | 4,6 | 4,1 | 5,4 | 6,1 |
Kasyanov | 0,3 | 0,4 | 0,3 | 0,9 |
Medvedev | 44,6 | 52,3 | 52,5 | 60,4 |
Nemtsov | 0,5 | 0,4 | 0,4 | 0,8 |
I would rather not go to vote | 7,8 | 6,8 | 5,9 | 10,2 |
Hard to say | 30,2 | 22,6 | 21,9 | 14,0 |
Are you following the course of the presidential election campaign in Russia? | ||
| February 2004 | January 2008 |
I am closely following it | 19 | 11 |
I am following it from time to time | 44 | 49 |
I am not following it | 36 | 39 |
Hard to say | 1 | 1 |
The next presidential elections in Russia will take place on March 2, 2008. Are you planning to vote in them? | ||
| February 2004 | January 2008 |
No, definitely not | 8 | 5 |
Probably not | 11 | 8 |
Probably so | 32 | 42 |
Yes, definitely so | 46 | 40 |
Hard to say | 3 | 5 |
Please, specify why you are planning to vote in the presidential elections? | ||
| February 2004 | January 2008 |
Я всегда хожу на выборы | 45 | 42 |
I wanted to support the presidential contender that I trust | 24 | 30 |
I consider voting to be my civic duty | 32 | 38 |
I wanted to express my distrust for the authorities now in power | 4 | 3 |
President makes important decisions that the life of the whole country depends on, and I care about who will be elected President of the country | 18 | 22 |
I do not want anybody to make use of my vote instead of me | 20 | 22 |
What I like about elections is the excitement of political struggle, I find it interesting to follow the elections, to vote in them | 2 | 2 |
I am going to vote because most of my friends and family are planning to do so | 4 | 6 |
Other reasons | 1 | 1 |
I do not really have any particular reasons, but I will vote anyway | 6 | 4 |
Hard to say | 1 | 3 |
Please, specify why you are not planning to vote in the presidential elections? | ||
| February 2004 | January 2008 |
I almost never vote | 16 | 24 |
I do not really like any of the possible presidential contenders | 8 | 18 |
I am against presidential elections like that, I am of the opinion that the president should be elected by the parliament | 3 | 2 |
Elections are not going to change the state of affairs in the country, therefore, there is not too much sense in voting | 18 | 30 |
The election results will be falsified anyway, my participation in the elections or lack of it is not going to change anything | 11 | 12 |
I am not interested in politics, it is all too far from me or my interests | 10 | 18 |
Politics is a "dirty business" and taking part in any form of it is unacceptable for me | 5 | 4 |
It is already clear who will win, my vote is not going to change anything | 26 | 24 |
I am busy and have no time | 7 | 8 |
Other reasons | 5 | 3 |
I do not really have any particular reasons, but I will not vote anyway | 5 | 4 |
Hard to say | 15 | 7 |
To what extent do you think one would be able to trust the results of the coming presidential elections? | ||
| February 2004 | January 2008 |
I am of opinion that the elections results are going to be authoritative and will correspond with the voters' will expression | 36 | 44 |
Some manipulations are likely to occur at the local level but that will not affect the election results in the country as a whole | 40 | 34 |
I do not think one should trust the election results | 18 | 10 |
Hard to say | 6 | 12 |