47% of Russians tend to think that North Korean nuclear threat is real and can bring negative consequences to Russia. In this respect, the nuclear war threat is being discussed in social media.
MOSCOW, April 22, 2013. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the data concerning how Russian assess the current situation in the Korean peninsula. The press release contains the results of the social media monitoring devoted to the same topic and conducted by the Social Networks Agency.
Results of all-Russian poll
Most of Russians know that North Korea threatens South Korea and the U.S. with nuclear strikes (85%). Those who are informed best are residents of big cities (94%). Only 14% heard for the first time about that.
According to 47% of Russians, North Korea has really developed nuclear weapons and poses a real threat. Those who think so are those Russians who are well aware about the events on the Korean peninsula (57%). Thirty-nine percent of Russians believe that this is nothing but bluff: those who think so are basically Russians who heard about the events for the first time during the poll (42%).
According to the majority of Russians, the use of nuclear weapons by North Korea may have drastic consequences for Russia and firstly can cause an ecological disaster (23%). Eight percent of Russians are concerned about the fact the Russia might be dragged into conflict; nine percent expect negative consequences in general.
Russians call on Russian authorities to interpose between opponents in the conflict (56%). The share of those who advise not to intervene in the conflict is also big (36%). Only 4% believe it is essential to support one of the parties: either North Korea or South Korea (2%, per each).
Half of Russians believe that the nuclear powers must isolate those countries who are engaged in the development of nuclear weapons from the world community (50%). Thirty-five percent say that such countries also have their right to have nuclear weapons, like the U.S., China or Russia; the share of such respondents has slightly grown compared to 2009 (from 31%).
Results of social media monitoring
According to social media monitoring conducted by the Social Networks Agency, the attitudes of bloggers towards North Korea threatening South Korea and the U.S with nuclear strikes are neutral, on the one hand (57% posts), and negative, on the other hand (41%).
As to particulars, bloggers were discussing their attitudes towards Kim Jong-Un (38%) and nuclear war threat (33%). They also raised the questions about the influence of the U.S. on the situation in the country (12%), the North Korea foreign policy course (10%), as well as relations between North and South Korea (7%).
The initiative Russian opinion polls were conducted on April 13-14, 2013. 1600 respondents were interviewed at 130 sampling points in 42 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.4%.
Social media monitoring was conducted by the Social Networks Agency on March 29 – April 18, 2013. Open search engines (Blogs.Yandex.ru, Blogsearch.google.ru) and a private search tool were used during the monitoring. A total of 1258 relevant publications were found.
Results of all-Russian poll
Do you personally know/have you heard/ do you hear for the first time that North Korea threatens South Korea and the U.S. with nuclear strikes? (close-ended question, one answer) | |||||||
Total respondents | Moscow and St.Petersburg | Million cities | More than 500 thousand | 100 - 500 thousand | Less 100 thousand | Rural area | |
I am well aware bout that | 39 | 35 | 32 | 41 | 43 | 44 | 36 |
I have heard something but I do not know any details | 46 | 47 | 57 | 53 | 46 | 39 | 45 |
I hear about that for the first time | 14 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 19 |
Hard to tell | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 |
In your opinion, has North Korea really developed nuclear weapons, or are its threats with nuclear attacks nothing but bluff? (close-ended question, one answer) | ||||
Total respondents | I am well aware about that | I have heard something but I do not know any details | I hear about that for the first time | |
This is rather a real threat; they really have nuclear weapons | 47 | 57 | 49 | 18 |
This is bluff; they have no intentions and no nuclear capacity to start a war | 39 | 37 | 41 | 42 |
Hard to tell | 13 | 6 | 10 | 40 |
Let us admit that North Korea actually possesses nuclear weapons. In your opinion, will the use of nuclear weapons in the Korean peninsula have consequences for Russia, or not? If yes, which ones? (open-ended question, any number of answers)
| |
Russia can find itself engaged in a conflict; relations between Russia and N.Korea will be strained | 8 |
Ecological disaster, radiation contamination | 23 |
Bad consequences in general | 9 |
Far Eastern region will be harmed | 3 |
Consequences for the entire world | 4 |
Economic crisis | 2 |
Flow of refugees to Russia | 1 |
Korea is close to Russian borders; the consequences will be anyway | 2 |
No consequences | 33 |
Other | 1 |
Hard to tell | 19 |
What position should Russia have with regard to the nuclear conflict in the Korean peninsula? (close-ended question, one answer) | |||||
Total respondents | Elementary, or lower, incomplete secondary education | Secondary (school, technical college) | Secondary special (college) | Incomplete higher (not less than 3 years), higher | |
To support North Korea | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
To support South Korea | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
To mediate between two parties | 55 | 37 | 52 | 55 | 60 |
To keep out of the conflict | 36 | 55 | 38 | 35 | 31 |
Other | 0 |
|
| 1 | 1 |
Hard to tell | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
What policies should Russia and other nuclear powers conduct against countries developing nuclear weapons? (close-ended question, one answer) | |||
2006 | 2009 | 2013 | |
Such countries should be isolated; economic and other sanctions should be imposed to prevent new arms race and the occurrence of atomic bomb | 47 | 52 | 50 |
Such countries have their right to have nuclear weapons, as the U.S., Russia and China have. This is why no special policy applied to those countries that have created a nuclear bomb should be conducted | 34 | 31 | 35 |
Hard to tell | 19 | 18 | 15 |
Results of social media monitoring
Attitudes of bloggers towards North Korea threatening South Korea and the U.S. with nuclear weapons (distribution of publication depending on the context, %) | |
Negative | 41 |
Neutral | 57 |
Positive | 2 |
Topics discussed | |
Attitudes towards Kim Jing-Un | 38 |
Nuclear war threat | 33 |
Influence of the US on the situation in the Korean peninsula | 12 |
Assessment of the foreign policy course of North Korea | 10 |
Relations between North and South Korea | 7 |
Suspecting North Korea in Boston bombing | 1 |
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!