Results of our studies

29 September 2021. VCIOM presents the data of a survey on the attitudes of Russians towards nuclear weapons.  

Nuclear war probability

An overwhelming majority of Russians (86%) say it is hardly likely that a nuclear war will occur within the next 2-3 years. Seven percent of respondents oppose them.

Half of Russians (49%) to a certain extent feel anxiety related to the threat of nuclear war (mainly female respondents): 36% feel a certain degree of anxiety; 10% have a strong worry; 3% have a constant fear. The other part of respondents are not afraid that a nuclear war may occur (49%); they are mainly men (61%).

Every second Russian considers that keeping and building nuclear weapons are likely to help maintain peace (54%). More than one-third of respondents have the opposite opinion (34%).

Russia’s nuclear potential

Despite disarmament launched in 1962, most of Russians (71%) believe that Russia should keep its nuclear weapons at the same levels; 16% say disarmament efforts should be continued.

Most of Russians (83%) do not support the idea to dismantle and destroy the Russian nuclear weapons within the next 3-5 years: 15% think the nuclear potential should be increased; 58% think it should be kept at the same levels; 10%, reduced. Five percent of respondents think that nuclear weapons should be fully dismantled within the next 3-5 years; 13% remain undecided.

Russians are split in their opinions on the long-term prospects of Russia’s nuclear potential: only 40% think the weapons should be kept in the same volume; 17% think it should be increased; 13%, reduced. This share is 3 points higher among those who think the nuclear weapons should be fully dismantled (8%) and 10 points higher among those who are undecided (22%).

Russian nationwide VCIOM-Sputnik survey was conducted on September 4, 2021. A total of 1,600 of Russians aged 18 and older took part in the survey. Results are based on telephone interviews. Stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of Russian landline and mobile phone numbers was used. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

In your opinion, how likely is it that a nuclear war occurs within the next 2 or three years?

(open-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents)

 

Total respondents

Men

Women

Highly unlikely

30

38

24

Hardly likely

56

53

59

Likely

6

5

8

Very likely

1

1

1

Don’t know

7

3

8

To what extent are you personally afraid of the occurrence of nuclear war? I will read out 4 options; please choose the one that suits you.  (open-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents)

 

Total respondents

Men

Women

I am not afraid at all

49

61

38

I am somewhat afraid

36

28

43

I have a strong anxiety

10

9

12

I have a constant fear

3

1

5

Don’t know

2

1

2

Some people think that countries should keep and build nuclear weapons in order to keep the world from war. In your opinion, is keeping and building nuclear potential by the competing states likely to help maintain peace, or not?

( closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents)

 

Total respondents

Likely to help maintain peace

54

Unlikely to help maintain peace

34

Don’t know

12

Disarmament was launched globally in 1962. In your opinion, should Russia continue disarmament or should it keep the weapons it possesses today? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents )

 

Total respondents

Russia should continue disarmament

16

Russia  should keep the weapons it has today

71

Don’t know

13

In your opinion, what should Russia do with its nuclear potential within the next 3-5 years?

( closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents)

 

Total respondents

It should be increased

15

It should be kept at the same levels

58

It should be reduced

10

It should be fully dismantled and destroyed

5

Don’t know

12

And what should Russia do with its nuclear weapons in the long-term (25-30 years)? 

( closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents)

 

Total respondents

Russia should increase it

17

Russia should keep it at the same levels

40

Russia should reduce it

13

Russia should fully dismantle and destroy it

8

Don’t know

22