Russians do not support either parties in the conflict and consider that Russia should be a mediator to resolve conflict in peaceful ways.
MOSCOW, May 12, 2016. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the data describing how Russians assess the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and possible Russian engagement in the conflict resolution.
The exacerbated conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has attracted the attention of three-quarters of Russians: 72% heard about it (45% in 2015).
At the same time, today more Russians are confident that the peaceful resolution of the conflict is possible than it was two years ago (71% versus 57%, respectively). Fifteen percent give negative predictions (20% of residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg; 21% of non-parliamentary parties’ supporters).
For the time being, Russians advocate for more active participation of Russia in the conflict resolution: the percentage of those who think that Russia should not interfere in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has substantially decreased over two years (from 60 to 36%). At the same time, 44% of respondents (from 25% in 2014) think Russia should be a mediator to stop the bloodshed.
Asked about the territorial belonging, Russians find it hard to answer the question (47%). But most of them treat Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state (26%). Recognizing its sovereignty is the best way to solve the dispute in terms of Russia’s interests (35%). At the same time, 18% say that any outcome would have no substantial impact on Russia.
The VCIOM survey is conducted April 30 – May 1, 2016, in 130 settlements, 46 regions and republics and 9 federal districts of Russia. The survey is based on community-based formalized face-to-face interviews and involves 1600 respondents, aged 18 and over; representative Russian sample include sex, age, education and type of settlement. The margin of error (taking into account the design effect) is 3.5% at the 95% confidence level. The survey is conducted with multi-stage stratified sample based on general rule of walking and quotas at the final selection stage. Apart from the margin of error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the field work should be taken into account.
In recent weeks, an armed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed territory between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has aggravated. Do you know/have you heard/do you hear for the first time about this conflict? | ||
| 2014 | 2016 |
I am well informed about that | 10 | 25 |
I heard something but I do not know any details | 35 | 47 |
This is the first time I hear about that | 52 | 27 |
Don’t know | 3 | 1 |
In your opinion, is a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict possible, or not? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | ||
| 2014 | 2016 |
Peaceful resolution is possible | 57 | 71 |
Peaceful resolution is hardly possible | 14 | 15 |
Don’t know | 29 | 14 |
In your opinion, what Russia should do in this conflict? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | ||
| 2014 | 2016 |
Russia should act as a mediator to put an end to the bloodshed | 25 | 44 |
Russia should be neutral and watch from the sidelines because this is a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan | 60 | 36 |
Russia should support Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh authorities | 2 | 4 |
Russia should support Azerbaijan | 0 | 2 |
Other | 1 | 1 |
Don’t know | 12 | 13 |
In your opinion, is Nagorno-Karabakh an independent state, a part of Azerbaijan or a part of Armenia? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | ||
| 2014 | 2016 |
Independent state | 24 | 26 |
A part of Azerbaijan | 9 | 11 |
A part of Armenia | 11 | 13 |
Other | 2 | 3 |
Don’t know | 54 | 47 |
What draft resolution would most correspond to Russia’s national interests? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | ||
| 2014 | 2016 |
Nagorno-Karabakh region becomes a part of Armenia | 8 | 9 |
Nagorno-Karabakh region becomes a part of Azerbaijan | 5 | 6 |
Nagorno-Karabakh region becomes an independent state | 28 | 35 |
Other | 1 | 4 |
Any resolution would have no impact on Russia’s national interests | 21 | 18 |
Don’t know | 37 | 28 |
Note: Using materials from the websites www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory.