Turnout forecast remains stable; Sobyanin’s position is strengthening.

MOSCOW, September 3, 2018. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the data of the survey “Muscovites’ electoral references” related to the upcoming mayoral elections to be held on September 9, 2018.

In late August, Muscovites’ mobilization levels did not change: the expected turnout in the upcoming election is 31.8% (the same as in 2013).

The electoral campaign has become more visible: only one-quarter of those who do not exclude the possibility to come the polling station (33%) say that they did not notice any promotional materials of any candidate. S.Sobyanin is the leader in terms of the coverage: 61% of “active voters” and those who have not decided whether to vote or not have seen his promotional materials. Few respondents have noticed opposition candidates’ campaign materials: as to those who may participate in the voting, 19% say they saw I.Sviridov’s materials, 22% - M.Balakin’s, 22% - V.Kumin’s, and 23% M.Degtyarev’s campaign materials. 

Over the recent summer weeks Sobyanin’s electoral position has strengthened; his rating has grown from 65.5% to 69.4%. The second place is held by the KPRF candidate V.Kumin whose rating has increased from 10.1% to 13.2%. The positions of the other opposition candidates are weakening which is likely to result from weak mobilization of their supporters. The most noticeable decline occurred for M. Degtyarev (a decline from 11.1% to 7.8%).

In the group of those who said they would definitely participate in the voting, the share of the undecided increased from 12% to 16% in August; this is due to the intensifying pre-election campaign. Such level of the undecided is typical of this stage of pre-electoral campaign.

The VCIOM-Sputnik survey was conducted on August 28-30, 2018. The survey involved 1,800 Russians aged 18 and over. The survey was telephone-based and was carried out using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

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