The single voting day 8 September played against Sergey Sobyanin: most of his supporters stayed at home and did not arrive at the voting stations. But this did not prevent the current mayor from winning in the first round; however the results were lower than expected.

MOSCOW, September 9, 2013. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the comparative data concerning the Moscow mayoral elections: elections predictions, exit poll data and official results.

According to the public polls at the end of August, one week before the elections, most of Muscovites were going to take part in the mayoral elections (78%); Sergey Sobyanin was the undisputed leader: every second respondent supported him (51%).  He was followed by Aleksey Navalny who gained 11% of votes; Ivan Melnikov was ranked third (6%).

Based on the VCIOM`s polls, the forecast of the election outcome was designed. The predictions were made using the quantitative data; a number of factors that shaped electoral preferences and voters` activity were also taken into consideration.  Taking all these factors together, it is expected that almost half of respondents would have come to vote (48%). According to the VCIOM`s poll, Sergey Sobyanin might have gained almost two-thirds of the votes (62.2%), and Aleksey Navalny would have got 15.6%.

The reality is different: according to the preliminary data of the Elections Committee, only every third resident of Moscow arrived at the voting stations (32.7%); as a result, the outcome of the elections differs a lot from the predictions.

As expected, Sergey Sobyanin was ranked first with 52% of votes according to preliminary results which coincides with the exit poll results (53%); however the number of votes is lower than expected. The leading position of the candidate sometimes demotivates his/her supporters: many doubt their vote being confident that he/she would definitely win. What is also important is the inactivity of the Sobyanin`s electorate: only half of his supporters (52%) expressed their firm intention to take part in elections. This led to the situation where the undisputed leader could have barely crossed the 50% threshold necessary to gain in the first round.

The Aleksey Navalny`s electorate was active and mobile. His actual results during the elections are comparable to the results of the exit poll (32%), though higher than expected (27.24% vs forecast 15.7%).

According to the preliminary studies, 6% of respondents were planning to vote for Ivan Melnikov who was placed third (10,69% of votes); according to the exit poll data he was supported by 8% of respondents.

The telephone poll was conducted on August 30, 2013 in Moscow. 1200 respondents were interviewed. The margin of error does not exceed 3.9%.

VCIOM exit poll was conducted on September 8, 2013 across 200 voting stations of Moscow. Total of 26574 persons were interviewed.

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com. as well as distributed by VCIOM. the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!