Pre-election declarations differ greatly from the actual poll results. The VCIOM exit polls` data show who and how voted in Moscow and Yekaterinburg on September 8.
MOSCOW, September 25, 2013. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the data concerning the portrait of a voter during the Moscow and Yekaterinburg elections.
Moscow
According to the Moscow elections` exit poll conducted on September 8, the shares of people who cast their vote for Sergey Sobyanin are as follows: 58% of women, 70% of elderly respondents, 63 % of respondents with secondary special education. As the pre-election polls suggest, the least active groups of electorate turned out to be 25-34-year-old respondents: according to the August survey, every second planned to support Sobyanin (49%); actually, the share made up 36% (exit poll data).
The closest rival, Aleksey Navalny, was supported by 37% of men, 52-53% of Russians younger than 35, and 38% of respondents with higher education diplomas.
As to those voters who chose candidates according to their social and demographic characteristics, the actual electorate of the Moscow mayor candidates differs from the one that was predicted. Those who were going to vote for Sergey Sobyanin were 39% of men and 19% of 25-34-year-old Russians; actually these shares turned out to be 36% and 10, respectively. Besides, among supporters of Sobyanin the share of voters with secondary level of education was lower than predicted (52% - pre-election survey, 40% - exit poll data).
As to electorate of A. Navalny, the share of men who planned to support his candidature was 55% in pre-elections survey and 49% in exit poll results. The share of 25-34-year-old Russians who were expected to cast their vote for Navalny was 33%; according to the September 7th survey, the actual number made up 26%.
The male electorate of Ivan Melnikov was less active (65% of men were going to support Melnikov; the exit poll data shows 48% of men). The share of persons of the pre-retirement age who supported Melnikov is also lower than predicted (34% of 45—40-year-old Russian were going to vote for him; according to the exit poll data this share made up 28%).
Yekaterinburg
According to the Yekaterinburg exit poll data (electorate of the main candidates in basic social groups), Evgeny Royzman was supported by 43% of men, 60% of Russians younger than 25, and 43% of Russians with high level of education.
Yakov Silin was actively supported by women (32% vs 24% men), respondents aged more than 25 (29-32% vs 17-24% among those who are younger than 25).
The analysis of social characteristics of the electorate of deferent candidates reveals substantial social and demographic distinctions between the expected and actual electorates. For example, the share of male electorate voting for E. Royzman was lower than expected: 58% of men were planning to support him according to pre-election survey, but the actual number of those who did that was 50%. Fewer young respondents cast their vote for Yakov Silin: 10% of 18-24-year-old respondents were going to support him but only 5% of them did that.
MOSCOW
Results of August 21, 2013 survey | |||||||||||
| Sex | Age | Education | ||||||||
| Men | Women | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-59 | 60 and more | Secondary, secondary special | Higher | ||
Degtyarev M.V. | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | ||
Levichev N.V. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Melnikov I.I. | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | ||
Mitrokhin S.S. | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
Navalny A.A. | 14 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 14 | ||
Sobyanin S.S. | 45 | 58 | 43 | 49 | 40 | 53 | 67 | 55 | 49 | ||
I will come and spoil the ballot | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | ||
I would not participate in elections | 11 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 7 | ||
Hard to tell | 17 | 19 | 20 | 14 | 23 | 21 | 14 | 18 | 18 | ||
Results of September 7, 2013 survey | |||||||||||
| Men | Women | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-59 | 60 and more | Secondary, secondary special | Higher | ||
Degtyarev M.V. | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
Levichev N.V. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
Melnikov I.I. | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | ||
Mitrokhin S.S. | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | ||
Navalny A.A. | 10 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 12 | ||
Sobyanin S.S. | 39 | 50 | 34 | 33 | 47 | 47 | 56 | 48 | 41 | ||
I will come and spoil the ballot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | ||
I would not participate in elections | 23 | 11 | 36 | 29 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 12 | ||
Hard to tell | 17 | 25 | 13 | 19 | 20 | 25 | 26 | 19 | 24 | ||
Results of September 8, 2013 survey | |||||||||||
| Men | Women | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-59 | 60 and more | Secondary, secondary special | Higher | ||
Degtyarev M.V. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
Levichev N.V. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
Melnikov I.I. | 10 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 8 | ||
Mitrokhin S.S. | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
Navalny A.A. | 37 | 29 | 53 | 52 | 40 | 28 | 14 | 21 | 38 | ||
Sobyanin S.S. | 46 | 58 | 35 | 36 | 45 | 55 | 70 | 63 | 48 | ||
I spoiled the ballot | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | ||
SERGEY SOBYANIN | |||||
August 21 survey | September 7 survey | Results of exit poll | CEC results | ||
of the total number (100% turnout) | % of support | 52 | 45 | 53 | 51 |
100% voter turnout assumption (exit poll calculation is based on the actual 32% turnout) | 3 770 457 | 3 262 896 | 1 229 749 | 1 193 178 | |
SEX | |||||
Men | % | 39 | 40 |
36 | |
Women | % | 61 | 60 | 61 | |
No response | % | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
AGE | |||||
18-24 | % | 8 | 8 | 5 | |
25-34 | % | 19 | 14 |
10 | |
35-44 | % | 14 | 19 | 13 | |
45-60 | % | 29 | 30 | 26 | |
60 and more | % | 30 | 28 | 45 | |
No response | % | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
EDUCATION | |||||
Secondary | % | 52 | 54 |
40 | |
Higher | % | 48 | 46 | 57 | |
No response | % | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
ALEKSEY NAVALNY | |||||
August 21 survey | September 7 survey | Results of exit poll | CEC results | ||
of the total number (100% turnout) | % of support | 11 | 8 | 32 | 27 |
100% voter turnout assumption (exit poll calculation is based on the actual 32% turnout) | 797 596 | 580 070 | 742 490 | 632 697 | |
SEX | |||||
Men | % | 55 | 55 |
49 | |
Women | % | 45 | 45 |
49 | |
No response |
| 0 | 0 | 2 | |
AGE | |||||
18-24 | % | 14 | 15 | 14 | |
25-34 | % | 28 | 33 |
26 | |
35-44 | % | 22 | 17 | 20 | |
45-60 | % | 23 | 24 | 22 | |
60 and more | % | 12 | 10 |
17 | |
No response | % | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
EDUCATION | |||||
Secondary | % | 36 | 26 | 24 | |
Higher | % | 64 | 74 | 73 | |
No response | % | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
IVAN MELNIKOV | |||||
|
| August 21 survey | September 7 survey | Results of exit poll | CEC results |
of the total number (100% turnout) | % of support | 5 | 4 | 8 | 11 |
100% voter turnout assumption (exit poll calculation is based on the actual 32% turnout) | 362 543 | 290 035 | 185 622 | 248 294 | |
SEX | |||||
Men | % | 65 | 59 | 48 | |
Women | % | 35 | 41 | 49 | |
No response | % | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
AGE | |||||
18-24 | % | 9 | 9 | 5 | |
25-34 | % | 9 | 13 | 10 | |
35-44 | % | 20 | 11 | 13 | |
45-60 | % | 34 | 35 | 28 | |
60 and more | % | 28 | 33 | 44 | |
No response | % | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
EDUCATION | |||||
Secondary | % | 43 | 48 | 33 | |
Higher | % | 57 | 52 | 64 | |
No response | % | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
YEKATERINBURG
June 25 – July 5, 2013 survey results | ||||||||||
| Sex | Age | Education | |||||||
| Men | Women | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-59 | 60 and more | Secondary, secondary special | Higher | |
Alshevskikh A.G. | 6 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | |
Artyukh E.P. | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
Burkov A.L. | 5 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 13 | 9 | |
Royzman E.V. | 32 | 16 | 25 | 34 | 22 | 23 | 15 | 23 | 22 | |
Silin Ya.P. | 13 | 20 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 18 | |
Mitvol O.L. | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |
Volkov L.M. | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
I will come and spoil the ballot | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
I would not take part in elections | 13 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 10 | |
Hard to tell | 19 | 26 | 25 | 23 | 32 | 23 | 18 | 22 | 25 | |
Results of the August 5-12, 2013 survey | ||||||||||
| Men | Women | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-59 | 60 and more | Secondary, secondary special | Higher | |
Alshevskikh A.G. | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
Artyukh E.P. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
Bakova A.A. | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
Burkov Aleksandr Vladimirovich | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 4 | |
Burkov Aleksandr Leonidovich | 5 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 7 | |
Burkov Anton Leonidovich | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
Karelin G.Yu. | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Noskov D.A. | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Royzman E.V. | 31 | 17 | 28 | 29 | 25 | 23 | 14 | 21 | 30 | |
Ruzakov I.O. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Ryavkin A.Yu. | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Silin Ya.P. | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 14 | |
Tikhonov D.B. | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Tungusov V.G. | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Shirinkin A.V. | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
I will come and spoil the ballot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
I would not take part in elections | 8 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 9 | |
Hard to tell | 28 | 40 | 32 | 35 | 33 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 30 | |
Results of September 8, 2013 exit poll | ||||||||||
| Men | Women | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-59 | 60 and more | Secondary, secondary special | Higher | |
Alshevskikh A.G. | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | |
Artyukh E.P. | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
Bakova A.A. | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
Burkov Aleksandr Vladimirovich | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
Burkov Aleksandr Leonidovich | 17 | 26 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 36 | 26 | 18 | |
Burkov Anton Leonidovich | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
Karelin G.Yu. | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Noskov D.A. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
Royzman E.V. | 43 | 30 | 60 | 55 | 44 | 32 | 18 | 28 | 43 | |
Ruzakov I.O. | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
Ryavkin A.Yu. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Silin Ya.P. | 24 | 32 | 17 | 24 | 29 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 27 | |
Spoiled ballots | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
YAKOV SILIN | ||||
June 25 - 5 July survey | August 5 -12 survey | August 5 -12 survey | CEC results | |
% of support | 17 | 14 | 27 | 29,7 |
Sex | ||||
Men | 31 | 44 | 36 | |
Women | 69 | 56 | 61 | |
No response | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
Age | ||||
18-24 | 10 | 12 | 5 | |
25-34 | 14 | 17 | 14 | |
35-44 | 9 | 18 | 17 | |
45-59 | 34 | 32 | 27 | |
60 and more | 33 | 22 | 36 | |
No response | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
Education | ||||
Secondary, secondary special | 59 | 73 | 39 | |
Higher | 41 | 27 | 44 | |
No response | 0 | 0 | 17 | |
EVGENY ROYZMAN | ||||
June 25 - 5 July survey | August 5 -12 survey | August 5 -12 survey | CEC results | |
% of support | 23 | 23 | 34 | 33,3 |
Sex | ||||
Men | 58 | 59 | 50 | |
Women | 42 | 41 | 48 | |
No response | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
Age | ||||
18-24 | 12 | 17 | 12 | |
25-34 | 28 | 26 | 28 | |
35-44 | 14 | 17 | 20 | |
45-59 | 26 | 27 | 22 | |
60 and more | 19 | 13 | 17 | |
No response | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
Education | ||||
Secondary, secondary special | 63 | 66 | 29 | |
Higher | 37 | 34 | 56 | |
No response | 0 | 0 | 15 | |
ALEKSANDR BURKOV | ||||
June 25 - 5 July survey | August 5 -12 survey | Results of exit poll | CEC results | |
% of support | 11 | 7 | 22 | 20,3 |
Sex | ||||
Men | 20 | 36 | 33 | |
Women | 80 | 64 | 65 | |
No response | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
Age | ||||
18-24 | 5 | 8 | 3 | |
25-34 | 8 | 9 | 9 | |
35-44 | 9 | 11 | 11 | |
45-59 | 20 | 32 | 23 | |
60 and more | 59 | 40 | 54 | |
No response | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
Education | ||||
Secondary, secondary special | 29 | 72 | 45 | |
Higher | 71 | 28 | 37 | |
No response | 0 | 0 | 18 | |
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