Results of our studies

IN BRIEF

Despite a high level of the fear of terrorism due to the recent developments in Europe, the Russian confidence in the capacities of the authorities to prevent new attacks has not weakened.  

MOSCOW, August 3, 2016.  Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the data of the survey describing how Russians assess the level of terrorist threat and the capacity of the authorities to prevent terror attacks.

More than half of Russians (60%) believe that events similar to the Nice attack may occur in Russia.

Today the fear of being a victim of terror attack (49 p.) is at November 2015 and January 2014 levels (after the terror attacks in Paris and Volgograd): the index* value is 50 p. (respectively), on a scale from 10 to 90 p. Over the measurement period this indicator has been about 37-55 p. Seventy-two percent of respondents have fears about themselves and their relatives.

However, the confidence in the authorities’ capacity to protect the population is high (66%); the index** is 38 p. on a scale from -100 to 100 p. (to compare, it was 35 p. in November 2015).

What really threatens Russia is the ISIL (34%). The Caucasus and the U.S. pose less threat to Russia than before, according to respondents.

*Index of fears of being a victim of terror attack. The index is based on the question “Are you afraid that you or your relatives may become a victim of terror attack?” The coefficients from 0.9 to 0.1 are assigned to the answers. The index is measured in points and can vary between 10 and 90. The higher the index value is, the higher the fear of being a victim is.

**Index shows respondents’ subjective assessment of the capacities of authorities to protect the population against new threats. The indicator is calculated as a difference of positive and negative answers to the question “In your opinion, are Russian authorities capable of protecting the population against new terror attacks?” The Index is measured in points and can vary between -100 and 100. The higher the index value is, the higher the confidence in protection is.

The VCIOM survey was carried out on July 23-24, 2016 in 130 settlements, 46 regions and 9 federal districts of Russia. The sample size involved 1600 persons. The survey was conducted with multi-stage stratified sample based on general rule of walking and quotas at the final selection stage; the sample is representative of the Russian population aged 18 and over, according to sex, age, education, type of settlement.  The margin of error (taking into account the design effect) with 95% confidence interval does not exceed 3.5%. The survey method is community-based formalized face-to-face interviews. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the field work can introduce bias into the survey.

In your opinion, may events similar to the Nice terrorist attack happen in Russia?
(closed-ended question, one answer, %)

 

Total respondents

Men

Women

Rather yes

60

55

64

Rather no

33

38

29

Don’t know 

7

7

7

Are you afraid or not afraid of being a victim of terror attacks?  (closed-ended question, one answer, %)

 

00

01

06

07

09

IV.10

IX.10

II.11

IX.11 г

12

13

I.14

IX.14

X.15

XI.15

VII.16

Very afraid  

27

26

25

17

17

31

27

36

16

22

21

28

14

19

31

29

Somewhat afraid  

51

52

52

54

44

51

49

44

56

48

50

49

44

46

41

43

I am confident that nothing happens to me or my relatives

10

12

8

10

13

9

13

10

13

14

11

8

18

16

15

13

I did not think about it  

10

8

13

16

24

8

10

9

13

16

18

14

22

19

12

14

Don’t know  

2

2

2

3

2

1

1

1

2

0

0

1

2

0

1

1

Index of fears of being a victim of terror attacks*

51

51

49

43

39

54

50

55

44

45

45

50

37

41

50

49 

In your opinion, will the Russian authorities be capable of protecting the Russian population against new terror attacks?
(closed-ended question, one answer per each line, %)

 

Definitely  yes

Rather yes

Rather no

Definitely no

Don’t know

Index**

 2002

3

17

46

28

6

-54

2003

6

26

42

20

6

-30

II.2004

4

18

50

24

4

-52

IX.2004

6

22

43

22

7

-37

2005

9

21

38

27

5

-35

2006

7

33

39

12

9

-11

 2007

6

37

36

10

11

-3

2008

16

50

19

2

13

45

2009

8

41

28

9

14

12

IV.2010

6

30

36

10

18

-10

IX.2010

5

32

38

15

10

-16

II.2011

3

17

44

25

11

-49

IX.2011

3

29

41

16

11

-25

IX.2012

8

42

32

11

7

7

VIII.2013

11

44

30

8

7

16

ХI.2013

7

26

42

16

9

-24

I.2014

4

25

47

16

8

-34

IX.2014

16

52

20

3

9

45

X.2015

32

45

12

6

5

60

XI.2015

21

43

20

9

7

35

VII.2016

21

45

21

7

6

38

In your opinion, where does the real terrorist threat to Russians come from?

(open-ended question, any number of answers, answers of at least 1% of respondents during the latest survey)

 

August  2013

November  2013

September  2014

October  2015

July 2016

From the ISIL

 0

 0

23

34

From the U.S.

7

4

22

14

9

From radical Islamists

10

16

13

3

6

From different terrorist groups

2

3

3

1

4

From the Government, power structures 

4

5

1

3

4

From migrants

6

3

1

2

3

From the E.U., Europe

 0

 0

2

2

3

From Ukraine

 0

7

7

2

From the Caucasus

12

23

4

3

2

From the Middle East countries

2

2

2

12

2

From Syria

 0

 0

4

2

From Turkey

 0

 0

0

1

From inadequate people

1

1

From unfriendly states

1

1

1

3

1

From anyone  

 0

2

3

1

From our citizens  

3

2

1

1

1

Other

12

20

4

7

3

There is no threat

26

9

21

5

7

Don’t know

15

18

27

23

28

Note: Using materials from the websites www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory.

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Topics:
Terrorism