MOSCOW, 21 May 2026. The VCIOM Analytical Center presents survey findings on Russians' trust in the leaders of post-Soviet states.

Trust in the leaders of neighboring states is an important indicator of how Russians perceive the post-Soviet space. It reflects the current political context, attitudes toward individual leaders, and perceptions of developments in neighboring countries. Since the previous survey (2018), several post-Soviet states have undergone leadership changes, including Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Turkmenistan, and Georgia. While a change in leadership does not necessarily lead to a shift in public attitudes, levels of trust in newly appointed leaders provide an important indication of how Russians perceive the country's direction of development.

Alexander Lukashenko tops Russians' trust rankings of leaders of post-Soviet states, with 75% expressing trust in him. He is followed by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (25%), Shavkat Mirziyoyev (8%), and Nikol Pashinyan (7%). The presidents of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan each receive 5%, while the leaders of Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Moldova each are trusted by 4% of respondents.

Over the past decade, trends in trust toward the leaders of post-Soviet states have followed four distinct trajectories: sustained growth, sharp decline, stabilization at a low level, a decline to levels where public trust becomes virtually absent.

1. Growth.

• Belarus: Trust in Alexander Lukashenko has steadily increased, rising by 10 percentage points over the past ten years (from 65% in 2016 to 75% today). It is the only post-Soviet country where trust in the leader has both remained stable and demonstrated sustained growth throughout the period of observation. The increase became especially noticeable after 2014, with the trend remaining positive thereafter.
• Uzbekistan: Trust in the country’s leader has shown a positive trend since 2017, rising from 3% to 8%. Uzbekistan demonstrates a modest but sustained increase in trust following the leadership transition in 2016. During the presidency of Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s predecessor, Islam Karimov, trust levels were lower (2–3%).

2. Decline.

• Kazakhstan: Trust in the country’s leader has shown a downward trend, with 25% expressing trust in Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (2026) compared with 54% for Nursultan Nazarbayev in 2016. This represents a decline of more than half. Kazakhstan shows a significant gap between trust in the incumbent leader and trust in his predecessor.
• Azerbaijan: Since 2018, trust in Ilham Aliyev has declined from 14% to 5%, representing one of the sharpest negative trends in recent years. Trust in Aliyev reached its peak in 2017–2018 (12–14%), a period when Azerbaijan was actively involved in integration projects. Today, these indicators have returned to levels comparable to those of the early 2010s (5–6%).
• Moldova: Trust in Maia Sandu stands at 4% (2026), compared with 8% for Igor Dodon in 2017 — a twofold decline. Changes in trust toward Moldova’s leadership are associated with a fundamental shift in the country’s foreign policy orientation.
• Armenia: Trust in the country’s leader has declined, with Nikol Pashinyan receiving 7% (2026) compared with 11% for Serzh Sargsyan in 2017, a decrease of 4 p.p. This dynamic reflects the complexities of the current stage of Russia-Armenia relations. However, the aggregate decline conceals a significant generational divide: trust in Nikol Pashinyan reaches 16% among the “digital generation,” compared with just 1% among the “Thaw generation.

3. Stability.

Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Georgia, and Turkmenistan: Over the past decade, trust levels toward the leaders of these countries have remained largely unchanged, at around 4–5% (with a change of only 0–2 p.p. since 2016). In the perceptions of Russians, these leaders remain peripheral figures, neither shaping a positive nor a negative agenda.

4. Outside the scope of trust.

Ukraine — trust has effectively fallen to zero (1%).
 

‘VCIOM-Sputnik’ nationwide telephone survey was conducted on April 3, 2026. The survey involved 1,600 Russians aged 18 and older. The method used was a telephone interview based on a stratified random sample drawn from a comprehensive list of mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted by socio-demographic parameters. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence level, does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, survey results may also be affected by question wording and various circumstances arising during fieldwork.

Key survey effectiveness indicators as of April 3, 2026: cooperation rate (CR) *= 0.7206; minimum response rate (MRR) = 0.0198; response rate (RR) *** = 0.0747**

Calculations are based on corporate standard:

 * CR: the ratio of completed interviews to the sum of: (a) completed interviews and (b) all non-completed interviews with respondents who confirmed that they met the sampling criteria

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the ratio of completed interviews to the sum of: (a) completed interviews, (b) interrupted interviews after successful screening, and (c) all respondents for whom it remained unknown whether they met the sampling criteria.

**RR is calculated in the same way as the MRR, with the only difference being that the number of respondents whose eligibility remains unknown is reduced proportionally to the share of eligible respondents among all respondents whose eligibility status (eligible or not) was successfully determined.

*  In 2018, the question was worded as follows: “Which of the following leaders of the listed countries do you trust the most?

** Until 2017, surveys were conducted using face-to-face household interviews (the “Express” project). The sample was a stratified multistage sample with quotas based on socio-demographic characteristics and was representative of the Russian population aged 18 and older by settlement type, gender, age, education, and federal district. The sample size was 1,600 respondents.

*** In 2010–2018, the question referred to Nursultan Nazarbayev.

**** In 2010–2015, the question referred to Islam Karimov.

***** In 2010–2017, the question referred to Serzh Sargsyan; in 2018, to Armen Sarkissian.

****** In 2010–2013, the question referred to Mikheil Saakashvili; in 2018, to Giorgi Margvelashvili

******* In 2010–2011, the question referred to Roza Otunbayeva; in 2012–2017, to Almazbek Atambayev; and in 2018, to Sooronbay Jeenbekov.

******** In 2010, the question referred to Mihai Ghimpu; in 2011, to Marian Lupu; in 2012–2015, to Nicolae Timofti; and in 2016–2018, to Igor Dodon.

********* Until 2018, the question referred to Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov.

********** From 2010 to 2013, the question referred to Viktor Yanukovych; in 2018, it referred to Petro Poroshenko.

Author: Ilona Gezalyan