MOSCOW, February 16, 2009. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents data on whether Russians observe the decline of prices of goods and services in their regions, if no, then why; how they estimate the inflation rate and how they cope with the growing prices.
Despite of the fact that in for particular goods and services went down in some countries (due to financial crisis), the majority of Russians have not noticed it in their region (83%). Mostly residents of Central and North-Western Districts (88%), as well as respondents from the southern part of Russia (86%) tend to express this view. However every tenth (11%) say that there is a slight decrease in prices for some products and services; most of those who think so are residents of Urals (32%). Only 2% noticed price reduction.
Russians regard state policy (8%) and economic crisis (7%) to be the major reasons for the absence of a reduction in price. The share of those who think that this is caused by irresponsibility and inactivity of authorities, greed of entrepreneurs, bureaucracy and corruption, US dollar increase, and producers who suffer from lower price are 5% for each group. This is followed by such reasons as absence of state regulation of prices (4%); other 4% blame regional authorities. Those who think that absence of prices reduction results from inflation and import of goods are 3% for each. 2% put the blame on monopolists, 1% point out oil and gas price reduction. Almost half of Russians (48%) were undecided.
Thus, there is no deflation in Russia, there is inflation! But inflation rate, estimated by people, is slowing down. So, in February 2009 the share of Russians who thought that inflation was very high has decreased from 79 to 58% compared with June 2008. On the contrary, the share of those who consider inflation rate moderate has grown - from 16 to 30%. Those who noticed high inflation rate are mostly residents of Central and Southern Federal Districts (64% for each). Respondents who say the rate is moderate are often residents of Siberia (38%), Far East (36%), North-Western region (35%) and Volga region (34%). The larger the inhabited locality is, the more its citizens tend to estimate inflation as being high: 71% of Muscovites and Saint-Petersburgians against 51% of rural area citizens. Vice versa, average inflation rate was pointed by the residents of middle, small towns, and villages (32-35%).
Most noticeable price growth was observed in utilities payments: 67% of Russians think so (there were 49% of such respondents in October 2008). As for the rest of the products, then compared to October previous year there is a decrease in the share of those who mark considerable increase in price for the following products: meat products (from 66% to 53%), fruit and vegetables (from 53% to 43%), dairy products (from 56% to 34%), bakery (from 51% to 27%), petrol (from 45% to 14%).
Among products which prices slightly went up dairy products are on the top - 43% of Russians think so (this share has increased from 31% since October 2008). Russians more often mention that prices for such products as bread (since October 2008 this share has grown up from 34% to 40%), meat (from 23% to 30%), fruit and vegetables (from 29% to 38%) have also increased. There is a decrease in the share of Russians which say that only petrol and utility services prices have slightly went up (from 14% to 11% and from 23% to 19% respectively).
The share of Russians who think prices have not changed is growing. Among such products bakery holds the first position: 27% think that this price remained at the same level (11% thought so in October 2008). Other 17% of respondents think that petrol price (11% in October) has not changed, 14% say this is dairy products (6% in October), 10% point out fruit and vegetables (9% in October), 8% say this is meat and meat products (4% in October).
The initiative Russian opinion poll was conducted on February 7-8, 2009. 1600 respondents were interviewed at 140 sampling points in 42 regions of Russia.
The margin of error does not exceed 3.4%.
In some countries there is a decrease in prices for particular goods and services resulted from economic crisis. Is it observed in your region? (close-ended question, one answer) | ||||||||
| Total respondents | Federal Districts* | ||||||
CFD | NWFD | SFD | PFD | UFD | SFD | DFD | ||
Yes, in general prices are falling | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
Prices are falling, but only for particular goods and services | 11 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32 | 9 | 15 |
I haven`t mentioned any price decrease in recent 1-2 months
| 83 | 88 | 88 | 86 | 82 | 62 | 83 | 72 |
Hard to tell | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Why do you think there is no price decrease in your region What is it related to? (open-ended question, up to three answers from those who did not mention price decrease) | |
This is state policy | 8 |
Economic crisis | 7 |
This is a result of irresponsibility and inactivity of authorities | 5 |
Greed of entrepreneurs. Business doesn't want to lose profits | 5 |
Bureaucracy, corruption | 5 |
Producers suffer losses | 5 |
This deals with US dollar increase | 5 |
There is no state regulation of prices | 4 |
Regional authorities should be blamed | 4 |
Inflation | 3 |
Import of goods, we produce nothing | 3 |
The impact of monopolists | 2 |
Oil and gas price reduction | 1 |
Other | 2 |
Hard to tell | 48 |
How would you estimate inflation rate in recent 1-2 months? | |||||||||||
| 5.02 - 6.02
2005 | 19.02 - 20.02
2006 | 28.07 - 29.07
2007 | 20.10 - 21.10
2007 | 22.03 - 23.03
2008 | 24.05 - 25.05
2008 | 7.06 - 8.06
2008 | 12.07 - 13.07
2008 | 16.08 - 17.08
2008 | 25.10 - 26.10
2008 | 7.02 - 8.02
2009 |
Inflation is very high | 62 | 62 | 52 | 82 | 74 | 71 | 79 | 78 | 77 | 72 | 58 |
Inflation is moderate | 26 | 26 | 35 | 13 | 18 | 21 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 30 |
Inflation is negligible | 5 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
Hard to tell | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
How would you evaluate the changes in the prices of various goods and services in recent 1-2 months? (close-ended question, one answer per each position) | ||||||||
| July 2007 | October 2007 | 24-25 May
2008 | 7-8 June
2008 | 26-27 July
2008 | 23-24August
2008 | 18-19 October
2008 | 7-8 February
2009 |
А) Bakery |
| |||||||
Prices dramatically decreased | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prices slightly decreased | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Prices has not changed | 9 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 27 |
Prices slightly increased | 44 | 37 | 39 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 34 | 40 |
Prices dramatically increased | 43 | 49 | 53 | 66 | 68 | 63 | 51 | 27 |
Hard to tell | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
B. Dairy products |
| |||||||
Prices dramatically decreased | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prices slightly decreased | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Prices has not changed | 20 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 14 |
Prices slightly increased | 42 | 18 | 32 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 31 | 43 |
Prices dramatically increased | 26 | 74 | 58 | 68 | 67 | 63 | 56 | 34 |
Hard to tell | 12 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
C. Meat and meat products |
| |||||||
Prices dramatically decreased | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prices slightly decreased | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Prices has not changed | 15 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
Prices slightly increased | 38 | 29 | 31 | 21 | 18 | 19 | 23 | 30 |
Prices dramatically increased | 34 | 56 | 58 | 70 | 71 | 68 | 66 | 53 |
Hard to tell | 12 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
D. Fruit and vegetables |
| |||||||
Prices dramatically decreased | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prices slightly decreased | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Prices has not changed | 19 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
Prices slightly increased | 32 | 35 | 34 | 25 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 38 |
Prices dramatically increased | 29 | 41 | 52 | 65 | 57 | 56 | 53 | 43 |
Hard to tell | 12 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
E. Petrol |
| |||||||
Prices dramatically decreased | - | - | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Prices slightly decreased | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 34 |
Prices has not changed | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 17 |
Prices slightly increased | - | - | - | 14 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
Prices dramatically increased | - | - | - | 73 | 79 | 72 | 45 | 14 |
Hard to tell | - | - | - | 12 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 22 |
F. Public utilities payments |
| |||||||
Prices dramatically decreased | - | - | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prices slightly decreased | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Prices has not changed | - | - | - | 6 | 14 | 12 | 19 | 7 |
Prices slightly increased | - | - | - | 20 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 19 |
Prices dramatically increased | - | - | - | 67 | 63 | 59 | 49 | 67 |
Hard to tell | - | - | - | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
*Abbreviations
CFD - Central Federal District
NWFD - North-Western Federal District
SFD - Southern Federal District
PFD - Volga Federal District
UFD - Urals Federal District
SFD - Siberian Federal District
DFD - Far-Eastern Federal District
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the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!