MOSCOW, 31 August 2022. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the findings of a survey on friendly and unfriendly countries.
Turning East
In today’s geopolitical reality and deterioration in relations with the western states Russia has to establish new or to restore old partnerships. “Turn to the East” launched as early as 2012 helps close the gaps in the domestic market, which shape Russian opinions on friendly and unfriendly states. Over the recent years this list has not changed much.
More than half of Russians consider that the Russia-China relations are the strongest (55%): the share has hit an all-time high (+10 p.p. since 2019). Belarus is ranked second; it has strengthened its position (20% in 2018 vs 49% today). The third place is held by India (22% vs. 10% in 2019), replacing Kazakhstan. The strengthening of the Russia-India ties amidst western sanctions helped India gain a higher ranking.
Turkey made a dramatic breakthrough – today 17% of Russians consider this country to be friendly (vs 1% in 2014). Kazakhstan is ranked fifth in the list of friendly states (- 8 p.p. since 2019). Serbia and Iran have improved their standings over the past three years (11%; +9 p.p. since 2019; 10%, +7 p.p. since 2019, respectively). Russians mentioned the United Arab Emirates (3%), Saudi Arabia (2%) and Pakistan (2%) for the first time.
List of unfriendly states
Respondents tend to hold stable opinions on the countries Russia has hostile relations with. The list of enemies is headed by the United States with an all-time high of 76% (+ 9 p.p. compared to 2019).
Ukraine is ranked second (43%). Despite aggravation of the military conflict in Ukraine and Donbass, the share of those who cited this country has decreased by 10 p.p., compared to 2019 (53%).
Another 39% of Russians consider Great Britain as a hostile country (vs 9% in 2014; a maximum growth in 2018 (33%)). This is followed by the EU countries supporting aggressive rhetoric against Russia: Germany (32%, +23 p.p. since 2019), Poland (28%, +16 p.p. since 2019), France (21%, +16 p.p. since 2019), Latvia (14%, +7 p.p. since 2019), Lithuania (12%, +6 p.p. since 2019), Estonia (11%, +8 p.p. since 2019). Finland (5%), Bulgaria (2%), Czech Republic (2%) are new to this list. On the contrary, Georgia has improved its standing (1% vs. 12% in 2019).
VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide telephone survey was conducted 13 August, 2022. A total of 1,600 Russians aged 18 and over took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interviews using a stratified random sample based on a complete list of Russian mobile phone numbers. The data were weighted for social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
August 13, 2022 survey key effectiveness indicators: cooperation rate (CR)= 0.8187; minimum response rate (MRR) = 0.0227; response rate (RR)= 0.1683. Calculations based on corporate standard: https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/
* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.
** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.
***RR: RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.
With which countries does Russia have the strongest, the most friendly relationships at the moment? (open-ended question, no more than 5 answers, % of total respondents) | ||||
| 2014* | 2018** | 2019** | 2022 |
China | 51 | 50 | 45 | 55 |
Belarus | 32 | 20 | 30 | 49 |
India | 9 | 12 | 10 | 22 |
Turkey | 1 | 12 | 13 | 17 |
Kazakhstan | 20 | 15 | 21 | 13 |
Serbia | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
Iran | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
Syria | 0,4 | 18 | 13 | 7 |
Armenia | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
Uzbekistan | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
Democratic People's Republic of Korea | - | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Cuba | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
United Arab Emirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Venezuela | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
Africa/African countries | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Hungary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Kyrgyzstan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
Brazil | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Tajikistan | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Saudi Arabia | - | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Pakistan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Germany | 2 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
Azerbaijan | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
France | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
Japan | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
Finland | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Italy | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
None | - | 6 | 6 | 2 |
Other | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
Don’t know | 22 | 24 | 26 | 18 |
*household face-to-face interviews (“Express” project); stratified multi-stage sample with socio-demographic quotas; sample representative of the Russian population aged 18 and over based on settlement type, gender, age, education, and federal district. Sample size: 1,600.
**surveys were conducted by the VCIOM-Sputnik method; sample size – 1,600 respondents; the maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%.
With which countries does Russia have the strongest, the most tense and hostile relationships at the moment? (open-ended question, no more than 5 answers, % of total respondents) | ||||
| 2014* | 2018** | 2019** | 2022 |
USA | 73 | 75 | 67 | 76 |
Ukraine | 32 | 39 | 53 | 43 |
Great Britain | 9 | 33 | 25 | 39 |
Germany | 10 | 14 | 9 | 32 |
Poland | 6 | 11 | 12 | 28 |
France | 3 | 8 | 5 | 21 |
Latvia | 1 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
Lithuania | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
Estonia | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
Baltic States | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
EU/Europe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
Finland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Japan | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
Italy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Canada | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Czech Republic | 0 | - | 0 | 2 |
NATO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Turkey | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Georgia | 1 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
All | - | 0 | 0 | 1 |
None | - | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Other | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Don’t know | 15 | 10 | 14 | 8 |
*household face-to-face interviews (“Express” project); stratified multi-stage sample with socio-demographic quotas; sample representative of the Russian population aged 18 and over based on settlement type, gender, age, education, and federal district. Sample size: 1,600.
**surveys were conducted by the VCIOM-Sputnik method; sample size – 1,600 respondents; the maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%.