According to VCIOM`s estimate, 7% barrier to enter the Parliament will be passed by four parties. The United Russia party is loosing its constitutional majority. The State Duma will nothave "extra chairs".

MOSCOW, April 7, 2011. The forecasting methods of VSIOM are based on the results of Russian surveys and involve experts` assessment. The final forecast is made using two factors: turnout prediction and voting prediction.

The State Duma elections turnout is forecasted to make up 52%.

According to the prediction of results of 2011 parliamentary elections (with expert assessment) the United Russia party will take 58,7% votes. It is followed, with a large gap, the CPRF party with 13,8% of votes. Fair Russia party is among top three leaders as well (9,8%).   With a small gap it is followed by LDPR which will probably have 9,1%.  

According to the forecast, the parties that will not pass the 7% barrier are Pravoe Delo (2,9%), Yabloko (2,7%), and Patriots of Russia  (1,8%).

Thus, the number of unproductive votes, i.e. votes given for the parties that did not cross the 7% barrier, makes up 8,8%.

The final distribution of answers (excluding unproductive votes) is the following: United Russia - 64,4%, CPRF - 14,9%, Fair Russia - 10,7%, LDPR - 10,0%.  

In conclusion, the distribution of seats in the State Duma of the 6th convocation is as follows. The United Russia party will gain 290 seats which is slightly less than it currently has (now - 315). On the contrary, the CPRF (communists) will increase the number of seats (67 seats, now - 57). The Fair Russia and LDPR partis will also have more seats than now (48 versus 38 and 45 versus 43 respectively).

For more results of electoral surveys conducted by VCIOM please visit:    http://vybory.wciom.ru/

The forecast was made in April 2011. The forecast is designed at the intersection of two main factors: turnout prediction and voting prediction using the system of correction factors and political experts` views taken into account (up to 10 experts).

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!