The anxiety over military attack on Russia has considerably decreased, as the VCIOM-Sputnik daily omnibus survey shows. Simultaneously, respondents are less likely to doubt about the military capacity of the Russian army.
MOSCOW, June 22, 2017. The Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the results of a survey devoted to the threat of military attack and the combat readiness of the Russian army.
Over the recent three years the perceptions of the military threat have gone down: in March this year the corresponding index was equal to -12 p. (there was a slight decrease compared to the October 2015 reading: 5 p.); in June the index was -15 p. (the same as in February 2009). More than half of respondents (53%) do not see any real threat to Russia (38%); they are mainly women rather than men (43% vs 32%).
At the same time, over the recent years the confidence in the Russian armed forces has strengthened: whereas in 2015 the index was 66 p., in 2017 it is 71 p. Today more than one-third of Russians (36%) consider the Russian army to be the best in the world; 47% - one of the best.
The potential military attack is assessed to be high (41% of those who think that a threat exists); others (45%) oppose this stance saying that any conflict would be local.
Military Threat Index describes Russians’ subjective assessments about possible military threats to Russia. The Index is based on the question “Is there any threat of military attack on Russia coming from any state now?” The Index is calculated as the difference of positive and negative assessments. The higher the value of Index is, the more confident Russians are about the military theat. The index can vary between -100 and 100 points.
Combat Capability Index describes how Russians assess the military capacity of the Russian Armed Forces. The higher the value of Index is, the higher Russians rate the military capacities of the Russian army. The index is calculated as the difference of positive and negative answers to the question: “Which of the statements describing the current combat capability of the Russian army would you agree with?” The index is measured in points in a range from -100 to 100.
The VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide survey was conducted on June 16-17, 2017. The survey involved 1,200 Russians aged 18 and over, and was carried out using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 3.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
Results for the 2000-2015 studies are based on household surveys.
Is there any threat of military attack on Russia coming from any state now? * (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | ||||||||||
| 90 г.** | I.00 | I.02 | II.09 | II.10 | II.14 | II.15 | X.15 | III.17 | VI.17 |
Yes, there is | 13 | 49 | 44 | 37 | 49 | 52 | 68 | 48 | 42 | 38 |
No, there is no | 57 | 44 | 43 | 52 | 40 | 42 | 28 | 43 | 54 | 53 |
Don’t know | 30 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
Military Threat Index | -44 | 5 | 1 | -15 | 9 | 10 | 40 | 5 | -12 | -15 |
*From March 2000 to February 2015 the question was as follows: “In your opinion, is there any military threat to Russia coming from other countries?”
**In 1990 the mass survey was carried out using representative all-Russian sample of rural and urban populations aged 16 and over; the sample size was 1708 persons.
In your opinion, would that attack be local or on a global scale? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of those who think that there is a military threat to Russia coming from some state) | ||||||
| Total respondents | Aged 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-59 | 60 and over |
It would rather be small, a local conflict | 45 | 33 | 48 | 40 | 40 | 54 |
It would rather be global, along all the borders | 41 | 63 | 39 | 46 | 41 | 32 |
Don’t know | 14 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 14 |
Which of the statements describing the current combat capability of the Russian army would you agree with?* (closed-ended question, one answer %) | |||
| 1990 ** | 2015 | 2017 |
Russian Armed Forces are the most effective and battle-ready in the world | 5 | 32 | 36 |
Russian Army is one of the best in the world | 21 | 49 | 47 |
Today’s Armed Forces are slightly lagging behind the best military powers | 34 | 12 | 10 |
Russian Army military capacity is at a low level | 15 | 3 | 2 |
Don’t know | 25 | 4 | 5 |
Combat Capability Index | -23 | 66 | 71 |
*In 1990 the question was referred to the Soviet Army.
** In 1990 the mass survey was carried out using representative all-Russian sample of rural and urban populations aged 16 and over; the sample size was 1520 persons.
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